Introduction / Feizal Rahman / 06 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Feizal Rahman isn't believing all the hype surrounding Croatia and fancies Poland to qualify ahead of them. Germany? Too good for this lot but too short a price to win the tournament.

Germany make the short journey southward across the border as tournament favourites (5.1) and will have reason to feel more at home than most with what is sure to be a huge fan following behind them at their Austrian group base. Joachim Low's men were the first to book their place in the finals, eventually finishing a comfortable second to the Czech Republic in their group with 8 wins and only 1 loss (to the Czechs) in their 12 games.

The hefty support behind the Germans appears well-founded given that defeat to the group winners was only their second reverse in the twenty-two games since their extra-time heartbreak at the hands of Italy at the 2006 World Cup semi-finals. History informs us that at major tournaments, Germany are in their element and it's usually here that the perennial cliches about 'efficiency' and a warning to 'never write them off' kick in. Yet with 35 goals scored in qualifying there's a whole lot more to this current Teutonic collection than mere machine-like qualities.

Those savvy with the Bundesliga will be well aware that German football has adopted a far more attacking and downright exciting approach to the game in recent years and no longer are monotonous 1-0 shutouts the standard fare, with average goals per game greater than that of the Premiership, La Liga, Serie A or Le Championnat. While the goals for the national side may also be plentiful, they have been spread out fairly evenly amongst the key hitmen - Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski, Mario Gomez and Michael Ballack - so a punt on either to finish up top tournament scorer at [11.0], [26.0], [19.0] and [38].0 respectively does not necessarily appeal. That is taking into account the Germans even getting far enough to warrant this in the first place.

For all their merits (and that of the Bundesliga, from which 19 of the squad derive), Germany had a fairly easy qualifying campaign and still could not topple the Czech Republic from the group summit. Whilst support will be strong in Austria, it will not be the same as the 60,000 plus they had at home during the 2006 World Cup, such advantage unquestionably lubricating their path to the semis. Despite being the most successful nation in European Championship history with three titles, at their current price Germany must be a lay to make it four. Trusted to win Group B at [1.71], the real question is, who will follow them into the quarter finals?

As the perpertrators of England's Wembley demise, Croatia have since been the dark horse for some ([16.5] to win). Coach Slaven Bilic's fledgling squad have made great strides in their development and as qualifying group winners over England, Russia and Israel, have established themselves as challengers to be reckoned with. The 'golden generation' that included Davor Suker, Robert Prosinecki, Zvonimir Boban and Bilic himself were placed third at the 1998 World Cup in France but the national side has since failed to reach such heady heights. Falling at the first hurdle in their last three major tournaments, Croatia still have much to do to sit with the true heavyweights of European football.

Given that England clearly do not fall under that category at present, one must infer that the inexperience of prodigious talents such as midfielders Luka Modric and Niko Krancjar will not be enough against far more worldly opponents in this competition, particularly in the absence of Arsenal's Eduardo Da Silva who struck a crucial 10 goals in qualification. It may even be all too much to progress from the group stages (2.44 to be eliminated) and as such a punt on Poland to progress to the quarter-finals offers greater value.

The Poles - led by the highly experienced Dutch coach Leo Beenhakker - have proven to be obstinate opponents, topping their qualifying group with a win at home and draw away against the much fancied Portugal. Although this will be their first ever appearance at the European Championships, the Group B straight forecast of Germany 1st/Poland 2nd attracts at [5.7]. With this year's format meaning Groups A and B meet each other at the quarter-final stage, Poland will have no fear of a further encounter with the Iberian Group A favourites and should they prevail once again, a possible rematch with Germany at the semi-final stage - with confidence riding high - could be very evenly balanced indeed. The political history of the two countries is well known and while having never beaten the Germans on the football pitch either, it should be remembered that their last encounter at the 2006 World Cup required a last minute goal against 10 men to secure a win for the hosts.

So at a current price of [80.0], Poland look very alluring for those looking for a trade-out bet in the knockout stages or even hoping for a long-shot repeat of Greece's fortunes at Euro 2004. Should they pull it off, then the [90.0] on offer for striker Ebi Smolarek - who netted 9 goals in qualifying - to be tournament top striker looks another tempting proposition with a view to laying off.

Having not played a competitive game since 2005 and winning only 5 of their 23 friendlies since, it's difficult to see joint-hosting nation Austria gaining anything other than three defeats at the group stage and they can be safely backed at [1.78] to finish rock bottom of Group B.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 Group B, Michael Ballack