League Two and FA Cup Betting: Oxford can win again

Ian Lamont
29 January 2016

Michael Appleton enjoyed his Pompey days and will be relishing battle against former charges Blackburn in the FA Cup

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Michael Appleton has the chance to beat another of the clubs he has managed, in the FA Cup, says Ian Lamont, who tips League Two wins for Plymouth and Crawley and is cautious about AFC Wimbledon...

"The layers have placed favouritism on the heads of the U’s and no wonder: they play good football on a lovely surface, are chasing automatic promotion and beat Premier League Swansea City at the Kassam Stadium in the previous round."

FA Cup Fourth Round

Oxford United 2.47/5 v Blackburn Rovers 3.39/4; the draw 3.412/5

Michael Appleton might have been forgiving for feeling that his revenge mission took place last weekend, when his Oxford side beat Portsmouth, where he spent 12 months learning to take disappointment from fans eager not to see their beloved club fall any further from grace.

It was a big learning curve in a tough environment, not least financially, and his short stint at Blackburn would have been even harsher. Blackburn don't seem in any better place as a club now, struggling near the bottom of the Championship and with just two points from six games, scoring twice and conceding six.

The layers have, accordingly, placed favouritism on the heads of the U's and no wonder: they play good football on a lovely surface, are chasing automatic promotion and, oh yes, beat Premier League Swansea City at the Kassam Stadium in the previous round.

Kemar Roofe and Liam Sercombe, who both have 10 goals, deserve their chance to shine in front of the live TV cameras that will be noticeable by their absence. Oxford really shouldn't be "astonished" at ticket sales, while they have the added boost of signing Everton full-back Jonjoe Kenny in case George Baldock is recalled by MK Dons.

Simeon Jackson, who once scored the play-off winner to get Gillingham out of this division, has just signed for Rovers, who could also take Tony Watt on loan from Charlton by Saturday, while a few others could be back from injury, but if Oxford remain on their A game they will have too much for their visitors.

Of the two Saturday FA Cup matches involving League Two sides, Oxford probably have the better chance than Portsmouth have against Bournemouth, although Pompey's odds at 3.211/5 do make them tempting. They might well earn a draw.

Recommended Bet
Back Oxford United @ 2.47/5

League Two

Crawley 3.185/40 v Mansfield 2.56/4; the draw 3.412/5

We are firmly in the time of year when the struggling sides pick up points. Are Crawley yet in the category of a struggling side? They are in the sense of struggling to win, even if technically they are closer to the play-offs on points than the relegation zone.

Don't believe any suggestions you might hear that they have the quality to reach the top seven, mind.

Striker Matt Harrold wasn't too impressed that his side just didn't perform in the predicted defeat at Yeovil last weekend and the Reds could certainly do with a bit of the fight the Glovers have shown of late, losing their FA Cup replay only on penalties to Carlisle.

Mark Yates' men have been good at home, winning seven, including six of their last eight at the Broadfield, Harrold scoring the only goal in their last victory, a 1-0 win over Cambridge three weeks ago.

While they have lost Rhys Murphy (returned to Oldham) they have reverted to playing a young keeper, Callum Preston, 20, after Darryl Flavahan had a contract offer withdrawn last week.

Yates - and Harrold won't stand for a lack of hunger any longer after a couple of lacklustre performances and the Stags are in the way of the hunt.

Mansfield manager Adam Murray also says his side are lacking a bit of "fire" at present. They've never really convinced me (sometimes to my cost) and have just won win in seven, while Crawley will ponder their last six game results nof WLLWLL and hope the next letter in the pattern is a W. They are a decent price to oblige.

Recommended Bet
Back Crawley @ 3.185/40

Plymouth 2.26/5 v Wycombe 3.55/2; the draw 3.55/2

Wycombe, stated Opta before the Chairboys travelled to Hartlepool, have alternated between winning and not winning in their past eight away games. Make that nine now, with the most recent that defeat against Ronnie Moore's side.

That pattern might be broken here, especially if there is any residual depression among Gareth Ainsworth's men from their FA Cup third round exit at Aston Villa.

Alex Lynch now has the unenviable task of replacing Matt Ingram after the goalkeeper who has done much to propel Wycombe forward this season signed for QPR.

If Matt Bloomfield returns in midfield, after picking up an injury against Villa, it would boost the away side, but if Plymouth have rediscovered their mojo then the hosts should win.

Ainsworth, as he points out, needs someone to step up and score goals. His side have not scored in 2016 in the league, suffering three straight defeats. Garry Thompson is top scorer with six from midfield. They might have a tight defense away from home, conceding eight - and being the only League Two side in single figures - but by contrast the Pilgrims have few problems up front.

Reuben Reid has six in 14 starts and has been out injured during the season, while Graham Carey (seven) and Jake Jervis (eight) are among those who have ensured he has not been missed as they have climbed to the top of the league. They were displaced after a predicted away draw last weekend at Bristol Rovers.

For all the case I'm making, Plymouth's results have not convinced since mid-November. After two defeats and two draws, four straight wins might have sounded like the wind was back in their sails, but they were not by big margins.

Since then, another defeat, a 3-2 win and that 1-1 draw. Derek Adams clearly felt he needed fresh impetus and signed Daniel Nardiello, 33, on loan from Bury this week. He should make Argyle's strikeforce particularly potent and, having scored the winner in a famous Johnstone's Paint victory for Exeter against Plymouth in 2010, the fans know all about him. He will want to impress with a lively start to his Pilgrims career. Don't bet against him scoring.

Recommended Bet
Back Plymouth @ 2.26/5

AFC Wimbledon 1.75/7 v Yeovil 6.05/1; the draw 4.03/1

AFC Wimbledon are on such a fine run - four straight wins, 11 goals for and two against - that the layers have made them odds-on to win.

You can understand why even better when you consider Yeovil are struggling near the foot of League Two. Yet I always hesitate to back teams odds-on in this division, plus the pessimist in me remembers the all too frequent occasions when clubs climb into the top seven, only to be shunted downwards pretty fast. They have indeed already fallen to eighth, courtesy of Leyton Orient's midweek victory, but they have the excuse they were not playing at the same time and the incentive to return to the play-off spots quickly.

With Tom Elliott and Andy Barcham both scoring last weekend, adding to the attacking threats posed by Ade Azeez and Lyle Taylor, they certainly have striking options to be reckoned with.

However, in odds-on circumstances I like to look for other bets. Over 2.5 goals appeals at 2.111/10 not just because the Wombles can obviously score.

Yeovil might well have begun a series of results that might pull them out of the relegation mire. A 2-1 victory over an admittedly lacklustre Crawley was good a place as any to start. That showed determination that Darren Way's men had showed in taking Carlisle all the way to penalties in their FA Cup third round tie.

Ryan Bird scored his eighth of the season and the Glovers might well score here, for a sixth (league and cup) game running. All of which leads to the conclusion that over 2.5 goals should be odds-on, too, making it the play.

Recommended Bet
Back over 2.5 goals in AFC Wimbledon v Yeovil Town at 2.111/10

*You can read more League Two tips as well as Alan Dudman's thoughts on the week's League One action by visiting our dedicated English Football League section here on Betting.Betfair.

PL 2015-16

+5.77pt League Two

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