A sickness bug is threatening to hamper Millwall's promotion hopes as they host Scunthorpe in the first leg of the League One play-off semi-final. Alan Dudman previews the game...
"I cannot see Scunthorpe keeping a clean sheet against a physical Millwall side, but they do have dangerous players going forward."
Millwall 2.0621/20 v Scunthorpe United 3.4012/5, the draw 3.55
Live on Sky Sports
A bug that has hit Millwall's players recently has come at the worst possible time. Manager Neil Harris has said he will monitor the next 48 hours, as the illness claimed Calum Butcher and Jed Wallace from Sunday's dramatic 4-3 victory at Bristol Rovers.
That was some effort from the Lions considering the players had been suffering from the bug, and thanks to an 85th minute winner, Millwall secured their place in the playoffs. However, it has to be worry if you want to back the Lions - so monitor that price in the build-up.
Despite Millwall's strong defensive record at The Den, the two matches involving this pair both hit the Over 2.5 Goals target. Millwall were 3-1 winners in April, although Scunthorpe at the time were on the back-end of a poor run. The Iron came out on top 3-0 at Glanford Park.
I mentioned the defence for Millwall, and they enjoyed a remarkable spell of nine successive clean sheets back in February - which included the FA Cup victory over Premier League champions Leicester City. The following two months were nowhere as kind, as the Londoners kept just one clean sheet in March, and another in April.
The Iron had rather a strange season. At one stage they were flying and were top, then during February a horror run struck of just one victory in 11 matches. Not the form of promotion contenders.
However, Graham Alexander's men turned it around, and finished with a flourish, collecting seven wins from nine matches. Games for them were fairly entertaining affairs - with nine out of the most recent 11 hitting Over 2.5 Goals and the Both Teams To Score.
For those with good memories; I tipped in the Scunthorpe 3-2 Bradford game on Sky earlier this season, and the way the Iron defended was poor. On that evidence alone they are a team to avoid backing to keep a clean sheet. With 32 goals conceded away from home - United hold the worst defensive record of any top six team. And for that reason the Both Teams To Score bet is the play. I cannot see them keeping a clean sheet against a physical Millwall side, but they do have dangerous players going forward.
Scunthorpe meanwhile are a big price in the Promotion market at 4.607/2 considering they have hit form again and are one of the most dangerous in terms of scoring. Millwall - who scraped the playoffs on the last day, can be backed at 3.505/2 for promotion.
Back Both Teams To Score 0.5pt @ 1.855/6
Alan Dudman's P&L 2016/17
League One: +0.05pts
FA Cup: +8.05pts