Midweek League One Tipsheet: Sunderland can hold in-form Barnsley
A full set of fixtures is coming up on Tuesday in League One, and our third tier expert Alan Dudman is looking to back a couple of draws for the night....
"And whilst the Black Cats are not totally out of it, their price of [9.60] for the title is down to the fact they have drawn far too many games this term."
Greens to build on excellent Luton point with win on Tuesday
Plymouth Argyle v Shrewsbury Town
The fixture list random computer has dealt Shrewsbury a cruel hand. For Saturday they were handed a trip to Rochdale, and they are on their travels again with the long haul to Plymouth for Tuesday.
It's a quick turnaround and it doesn't leave much time for rest, recuperation and planning. Which is quite the opposite for Plymouth, who played at Home Park at the weekend, and it's certainly an advantage.
Shrewsbury were actually unbeaten in five prior to Saturday's Rochdale loss, but Luton earned an excellent point against table-toppers Luton with a 0-0. The performance by the Greens was described by the local press as a "Derek Adams' masterclass", and it's hard to argue with that against a team that usually score plenty of goals.
Adams switched from the usual 4-2-3-1 to line up in a more defensive 5-3-1-1. They soaked up a lot of pressure, but I expect Adams to go more attacking for Tuesday.
The hosts have had a tough run of games recently with the likes of Sunderland and Portsmouth too, and I am happy with the price of Argyle at [2.62].
Back the stalemate in big game of the evening
Barnsley v Sunderland
The biggest game by a long shot on Tuesday evening is the top-of-the-table clash at Oakwell - a ground that has been turned into a real fortress this season. Barnsley's unbeaten record is on the line, although the layers are taking no chances here with their price at [2.02].
Although it's fairly unusual to see Sunderland trade at nearly [4.0].
This could create a ripple on the League One Winner market. Barnsley are [3.80] behind Luton's price of [1.46]. And whilst the Black Cats are not totally out of it, their price of [9.60] is down to the fact they have drawn far too many games this term.
And that's the best bet for me here; back The Draw at around [3.60].
Sunderland's knack of scoring is a plus, but their knack of bagging a 1-1 is out of this world. Backing that scoreline blindly over their season would have netted a superb profit. Jack Ross' team have now got 12 of those results, and you can expect [7.0] for Tuesday's game for that Correct Score punt.
Saturday's 1-1 at Wycombe was another for the stat, but Sunderland were poor by all accounts. Barnsley were quite the opposite with their comfortable 2-0 victory against Accrington - and that took their record at home to W12 D6 L0. I'm zoning in on that second part, and I would like another draw.
Clough's Burton can frustrate Londoners
Charlton Athletic v Burton Albion
My back of the outright Draw didn't quite work out on Saturday in the live Sky match, and Charlton deserved their three points against Portsmouth. The scoreline of 2-1 should have been more according to Addicks' boss Lee Bowyer - although he's a manager that is never shy in confidence in his team and his own ability.
And that's a good thing. He backs his players no matter what.
The Londoners matched a physical team in the tackle on Saturday, but their pass-and-move game was still there. Burton will represent a different sort of test to Pompey, as they are a neat and tidy football team. However, they are hard to work out. I've backed them at [1.84] and they have lost, then they duly turn up at Coventry on Friday and win 1-2.
It's that sort of division. Although I have given up trying to work out Cov.
On paper it looks a fairly straightforward task for the hosts, but I have been stung too many times this term with the odds-on poke at home. Burton's record of drawing six of their last 10 makes the Draw of interest, after all, they held Barnsley to a 0-0 recently.
Alan Dudman's P&L, 2018/19
League One: +1.38
League One regular season 2017/18: +18.48
Back Plymouth to beat Shrewsbury 0.5pt @ [2.62]
Back The Draw 0.5pt @ [3.50] Barnsley v Sunderland
Back The Draw 0.5pt @ [3.65] Charlton v Burton