Ian Lamont says Cheltenham's supply line, including now settled Chris Zebroski, means they have too much of a goal threat for Burton
'Cheltenham have scored at least twice in their last five home games, winning four of them'
After a creditable, entertaining goalless game at Gillingham - on a night when there were a seasonal high seven draws in the division - Cheltenham will want to make the most of a home match against one of the division's lowest away scorers. The Robins' home goal difference is not the greatest, but that was down to two defeats, in August and September. They have scored at least twice in their last five home games, winning four.
Chris Zebroski, who has played for seven clubs, now feels settled at one, perhaps because of the singing initiation. Capable of scoring himself, he will work in harness with Jermaine McGlashan to supply chances. In addition, Kaid Mohammed is certainly in good form with three goals in six.
Burton's away scoring record - or lack of it - looks more suited to aiming for draws or pinching a win. Cheltenham should have too much for them.
In the final few years before the original Aldershot went bust in 1992, I can remember reading they were 73 games without a goalless draw, the longest run of any Football League club at that time. Right now, they are specialising in them, with two in a row eighter side of the FA Cup.
Clean sheets are good and a sign of a solid defence. But now they are without left-back Anthony Tonkin, dismissed for a needless second tackle in the 0-0 against Wycombe after just 30 minutes. Dean Holdsworth immediately sacrificed creative Kieran Cadogan, which seemed strange. But then, I suppose, if the winger's crosses had pinpoint accuracy to a designated team-mate, rather than being general, he would be playing for his parent club Crystal Palace.
The teams cancelled each other out after that, neither threatening to be decisive. Therein lies the conundrum here. If Josh Payne can reprise his man-of-the-match role and Danny Hylton find his mercurial best, the Shots might beat the Bantams. Are they big 'ifs' against high-flying Bradford, who also have two 0-0 draws - and three more at 1-1 - this season? (The correct score prices here are 11.010/1 for 0-0 and 6.86/1 for 1-1.)
Bradford's win price reflects them scoring in all but one away game, but only once scoring more than one. Like the Shots, the Bantams have two clean sheets from three - but have notched just a single goal (Aldershot have two). So under 2.5 goals seems certain. Laying the visitors at 2.47/5 is a risk. But it is calculated on assistant boss Jon Parkin's moan about fixture list overload, Bradford's progress in the cups (they face a FA Cup replay and have the distraction of hosting Arsenal in the League Cup) - and the loss of both centre-backs Luke Oliver and Andrew Davies.
Lay Bradford @ 2.447/5
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.910/11
Given Plymouth's inability to hold onto a lead or even retain a growing statistical repute for low-scoring draws against a Burton side with an equal draw count, it seems likely that the Pilgrims will struggle against the leaders.
Carl Fletcher's men have lost four straight games, including to Dorchester in the FA Cup. Yes, three of those were away, but back at Home Park they would have been looking to rekindle some confidence. They have scored just twice in four outings and will not find the door more firmly shut than against Martin Allen's men, the division's lowest conceders with 10. Allen was happy with Tuesday's point against third-placed Cheltenham but will see this as a chance to build another away wins run, to match the five that began the season. They won on their last trip, to AFC Wimbledon. Sounds like the perfect chance for Danny Kedwell, who has nine league goals (five penalties), to boost his tally away, where he has just one.
These two teams will be sick of the sight of each other by Tuesday night, when their FA Cup replay could well go all the way to penalties. Neither side will want to give much away before then. York dominated last weekend's game, failing to take numerous chances said their manager Gary Mills. New AFC Wimbledon boss Neil Ardley thought his side were pretty poor - and rollocked them in the media again after Tuesday's defeat at Exeter. Doubtless his task feels bigger than when he took it on a few weeks ago. York have five draws in seven (scoring four, conceding three) and a 3-2 win to relieve that struggle. The visitors have two wins in nine, including two draws. York will probably edge this one, but it will be low scoring.