League Two Betting: Lay Wycombe and back Stevenage

Ian Lamont
24 February 2017

Bayo Akinfenwa presents a sizeable target for opposition fans' banter

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

The Chairboys' form doesn't justify a short price, says Ian Lamont, who also believes the scales are tipped in favour of goals when Leyton Orient host fellow strugglers Cheltenham...

"Crawley are the only League Two side with away defeats in double figures (10). However, they actually haven’t lost in their last two away games and will fancy their chances of a positive result from this relatively short away trip."

Wycombe Wanderers 1.84/5 v Crawley Town 5.49/2; the draw 4.03/1

It is a real shame that a great FA Cup story, for Sutton United, has been overshadowed by their reserve goalkeeper, Wayne Shaw, eating a pie in the dug out during their defeat to Arsenal.

And it is bound to increase the "banter" coming the way of, how shall we say, larger than life players who take to the field up and down the country this weekend.

Wycombe's Adebayo Akinfenwa, for example, gets plenty of jibes from opposition fans about eating too many pies. But they wouldn't dare say it to him in person I don't suppose. And he celebrates his extra muscle - as he did during Wycombe's own extended FA Cup run - by stating in interviews that he is comfortable with his size, has learned to accept and embrace it and use his 16 stone to his advantage.

He does get penalised a little easily by referees, just for holding his ground.

He must be doing something right to have scored seven League Two goals this season, just two behind leading scorer Scott Kashket, who has been desperate to make his mark in the game to avoid going into the family business making outfits for the Royal Family! Among many other high profile people.

Opta provide the fascinating statistic that the Chairboys have conceded more fouls than any other League Two side this season (447) and match reports tend to feature opposition managers moaning about the way Gareth Ainsworth's men play the game. Meanwhile Crawley have been shown the most yellow cards, add Opta.

Sticks and stones won't hurt Ainsworth's bones. He's just keen to lift the Wanderers out of their malaise. In their six games since losing at White Hart Lane in the FA Cup, they have won once - beating Portsmouth. They have scored five goals in that time, drawn two blanks and conceded 12 times.

Ainsworth must be desperate to get them back on track, but their form doesn't merit a price of 1.84/5, which is based on a, generally, strong home record of nine wins, only three defeats and a +9 goal difference.

What of Crawley? They have not exactly been world beaters either, taking four points from a possible 18, scoring seven and conceding 11. They are the only League Two side with away defeat numbers in double figures (10). However, they actually haven't lost in their last two away games, beating Colchester 3-2 and drawing 0-0 at Blackpool, which is not to be sniffed at.

James Collins, who has 16 League Two goals, will look on this relatively short away trip as a chance to improve The Reds' away tally (as will boss Dermot Drummy). Collins has scored eight away and will try everything he can to persuade Jimmy Smith to add to his hat-trick at Colchester.

This will be a real chance for defender Josh Lelan to really get to grips with this division, after his January move from home town club Derby. Both sides will fancy their chances here, which points to laying the rather short-priced hosts.

Recommended Bet
Lay Wycombe @ 1.84/5

Leyton Orient 3.39/4 v Cheltenham Town 2.56/4; the draw 3.412/5

Notts County one week, another fellow relegation struggler the next for Leyton Orient. What a baptism of fire for first time manager Danny Webb, a man whose career has always been overshadowed by the more successful playing one of his father.

A surprise 3-2 win over Plymouth on Valentine's Day clearly have his side plenty of confidence and they scored another two goals against the Magpies before losing 3-2.

Captain Liam Kelly's suspension for shoving a ball boy against Argyle won't help their cause, nor will facing Cheltenham, because struggling teams can be treated as cornered animals at this time of the season - they are likely to come out fighting for their lives.

With only a young bench to call on, Webb feels his side could have defeated Notts County with a bit more nous - and the Argle win shows there is nothing to stop them.

Paul McCallum, a scorer on Saturday, and Gavin Massey, who has three goals in five games, need to pull out their relative experience to guide younger players against a team managed by Gary Johnson, who isn't sure whether his team will turn up to beat a good side or lose to a bad one.

They lack consistency. In a bid to get them to perform, he really was emphasising the positives going into the Yeovil match, which they won after he showed them videos pointing to things they had done well.

After the resulting victory, he felt some of the pressure lift. More could lift if Tin Plavotic, the tall defender on loan from Bristol City, can head in more free kicks, or if Billy Waters can keep scoring.

These sides might not be, on the whole, big scorers. But they will both sense an opportunity and an urgency to take points here, which will lead to attacking football, nervousness, mistakes and goals. Opta tell us that no League Two team has been ahead in fewer games than Leyton Orient or Cheltenham (12 each), so the lead could change hands several times.

That gives us all the reason we need to ignore the outrights markets and plumb for a high scoring game of over 3.5 goals.

Recommended Bet
Back over 3.5 goals @ 3.814/5

Morecambe 2.942/1 v Grimsby 2.77/4; the draw 3.412/5

Morecambe being anywhere near the top of the form guide is not something you'd expect. But over six games, they have 11 points and are ranked fifth, conceding just four and scoring eight times. In fact, they have only one defeat in nine games.

Jim Bentley made sufficient changes to keep Crawley on their toes and beat them last Saturday, leaving Kevin Ellison on the bench. The winger is still capable of decisive displays, scoring twice to beat Cambridge for example, despite age trying to slow him down at 37.

Paul Mullin obliged instead, with a brace against Crawley, before another hard-fought match against Newport on Tuesday earned the Shrimps another point.

It's been really tough for the Lancashire side at times, with players not knowing whether they will be paid on time and not enough fit players to put on the bench. On that basis, sustaining a play-off push looks difficult, while Grimsby seem to have a stronger case.

They are only three points off seventh place, but face a scramble among several clubs for the top seven.

They are also hit and miss, losing 5-0 against Crewe and then beating in-form Mansfield 3-0. Callum Dyson became only the second Mariners player to score twice in one game this season, point out Opta, who add that Omar Bogle did so six times for them before leaving for Wigan. To their advantage, no team has kept more clean sheets than Grimsby this season, Opta stress, but Morecambe have scored six goals in their last three home league fixtures.

It looks like there is every chance of the two teams cancelling each other out with a draw.

Recommended Bet
Back the draw @ 3.412/5

Crewe Alexandra 2.8415/8 v Stevenage 2.767/4; the draw 3.55/2

David Artell says he knew four games before they lost 4-0 at Exeter that the Railwaymen were in a dogfight. At which point they were in a 10 game winless run. The next game, they stuck five past Grimsby, then beat out-of-form Wycombe and lastly drew at Blackpool, where he wasn't best pleased with individual errors.

So, the promised "tough week" worked, and since then Chris Dagnall has scored in each of his last three league games (four goals), point out Opta, after scoring twice in his previous 27.

Three goals conceded mean they have a healthy goal difference from those three games of 9-3, but that would hide a pretty average home record of 5 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats. They at least have a little breathing space from the bottom two.

Stevenage, however, have a pretty good away record of seven wins and three draws and are knocking on the doors of the top seven. They are in great form, second top over six games, netting 13 points from six games.

Matt Godden will be happy to be quoted by Opta, having been involved in 21 goals, scoring 15 and contributing six assists, scoring four goals in his last four games. Darren Sarrl won't be letting his wrestle on those laurels and will be demanding more. His side should have the edge, at good odds.

Recommended Bet
Back Stevenage @ 2.767/4