League Two Midweek Betting: Stags to stunt Accrington's run

Ian Lamont
26 September 2016

Matt Green's abilities could be key to Mansfield taking a surprise win at Accrington

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There could be a few surprises on Tuesday, with Mansfield leading the way, says Ian Lamont, who also tips draw specialists Carlisle to pinch a point at Doncaster and Plymouth to win at a surprisingly big price...

"The length of Plymouth’s price here also doesn’t reflect Leyton Orient’s poor home form. Derek Adams’ men should be favourites. Andy Hessenthaler’s men have scored just once in the three home games they haven't won. Plymouth keep things tight on their travels, conceding just twice - an average of every other game."

Accrington 2.47/5 v Mansfield 3.412/5; the draw 3.55/2

What would be the biggest shock result this Tuesday, a night that in my experience produces results against the form book?

The odds makers make Newport the big outsiders of the night, to win at Grimsby, which seems about right. Their price is 4.57/2. Mansfield should be a large price, too, and have been steadily shortening from 3.711/4. It could be worth following that money for them to win at Accrington.

There are a few reason to think that, possibly, Adam Murray's men could turn around recent poor form, in which they have earned a point every other game. Murray gave his team such a public rollocking after a home defeat to Grimsby on Saturday. They need to be more streetwise, he said.

Clearly, they need to rekindle some of the early season form which brought them two away victories, with Matt Green needing to recapture his scoring touch. Danny Rose and Mitch Rose need to start turning on the style. No wonder the Stags are such a large price, as Opta point out they haven't scored in four league games. They last went five in April 2000 and will be desperate not to repeat their club record of eight.

But - and this is the biggest reason for giving them a chance - Accrington must be running on adrenaline now, having taken West Ham so close to extra time in last Wednesday's League Cup tie. Chasing around players from three tiers higher, and matching them, is tough for any team. Romuald Boco and Billy Kee are allowed an off night.

It is two games after the big match where you sometimes want to watch for a team to drop energy levels. In the first game, adrenaline goes a long way. Clearly it did in their win at Colchester.

Recommended Bet
Back Mansfield @ 3.412/5

Leyton Orient 2.35/4 v Plymouth 3.55/2; the draw 3.55/2

If we are looking for Tuesday night trends, then the last - and only - time Leyton Orient won at home was on a Tuesday, back in August, beating Stevenage 3-0.

I'm not sure that's enough against the Pilgrims who also won that Tuesday, away from home. It reaped their first points of the season, since when they haven't lost, winning another five and only dropping a further two points when playing Hartlepool at home on Saturday, having to come back.

That was after a comeback when arguably they didn't deserve anything. That was, quite possibly, their off day, when they had the weight of going for a record seventh straight win on their shoulders.

Time for Graham Carey to supply more chances. The visitors' early season defeats lacked a common denominator: Nauris Bulvitis, the defender whose international clearance took all summer to come through.

The length of Plymouth's price here also doesn't reflect Leyton's poor home form. Derek Adams' men should be favourites. Andy Hessenthaler's men have scored just once in three other home matches, making for a terrible home record. Plymouth keep things tight on their travels, conceding just twice - an average of every other game. Plymouth have enough resilience and attacking threat to gain another victory, especially as none of the last 16 games at the Matchroom Stadium has ended in a draw, states Opta.

Recommended Bet
Back Plymouth at 3.55/2

Doncaster 2.26/5 v Carlisle 3.711/4; the draw 3.55

Carlisle show no signs of giving up their unbeaten record, even if they appear to be League Two's draw specialists. It has hardly done them any harm, given they lie sixth in the division. Simple consistency has a lot going for it.

Keith Curle got the reaction he was looking for from midfielder Shaun Miller, by dropping him into the reserves last midweek, while threatening to do the same with any other under performers.

Doncaster operate a tight defence at home - they have conceded a League Two best of just two at the Keepmoat Stadium - and have won their last three games there. They have not won four since January 2010, state Opta. And while they might have scored eight times at home - James Coppinger and much-loaned former Millwall striker John Marquis scoring heavily in their overall record - they come up against the only League Two side yet to be defeated.

These things are build on solid defences - Danny Grainger, Michael Raynes, Macaulay Gillesphey and Tom Miller seemingly working in harmony. OK, so harmony might not quite be the right word because the Cumbrians might have conceded 10 goals, but with six of their games draws and 1-0 wins over Plymouth, Barnet and Wycombe showing they can keep it tight, six draws in their unbeaten start indicates they can peg back Rovers to take another point.

Recommended Bet
Back Doncaster and Carlisle to draw @ 3.55

Hartlepool 3.814/5 v Luton 2.1211/10; the draw 3.711/4

Danny Hylton has always been a bit mercurial, a bit special. He once scored a hat-trick for Aldershot in the FA Cup against Rotherham, they got sent off. On Saturday, he let his frustrations get the better of him in injury time and picked up a second yellow card. What difference will his absence make for the Hatters? The answer is, it shouldn't. They have enough firepower for two teams in Jack Marriott (3 goals), Cameron McGeehan (5, like Hylton) and others.

So a midweek trip all the way to Hartlepool should hold no fears for Nathan Jones' team who are clearly primed for promotion.

Hartlepool have shown signs of life, with two draws and a victory (at Yeovil) since their heavy defeat to Stevenage at the start of September. As Opta point out, Nathan Thomas has scored their last four goals and whether they have enough variation to keep Luton at bay is the very big question.

Recommended Bet
Back Luton @ 2.1211/10

P/L League Two 2016-17

+18.65pt

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