League Two Betting: Back Carlisle against slow starting Pilgrims

Ian Lamont
12 August 2016

Keith Curle could be shouting his Carlisle side to victory on Saturday

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In his look at the best bets from the second weekend of League Two action, Ian Lamont believes Carlisle can capitalise as Plymouth continue to find their feet, while Accrington and Barnet should fight out a draw...

"Having also gone out of the EFL Cup in midweek, Argyle don't seem in as good a place as their hosts, who will be looking to build on a draw with pre-season hot favourites Portsmouth on the opening day."

Carlisle 2.56/4 v Plymouth 3.185/40; the draw 3.55/2

Plymouth, as can happen, seem to be suffering a hangover from their play-off final defeat in May, having lost 3-0 at home to Luton on the opening day.

They are struggling to get international clearance for Latvian defender Nauris Bulvitis, who signed in June, while Karleigh Osborne, his fellow centre-back, is also still out.

But that shouldn't hide the fact they have one of League Two's best players in attacker Graham Carey - if they can supply him with the ball.

Left-back Gary Sawyer admits that expectation is high this season, but believes the squad are up to the challenge of promotion. However, they faltered after leading the division in December so nothing should be taken as read. They signed 14 new faces in the summer and Derek Adams is looking for a couple of loan signings before August ends.

Having also gone out of the EFL Cup in midweek, Argyle don't seem in as good a place as their hosts, who will be looking to build on a creditable draw with pre-season favourites Portsmouth despite the absence of Jamie Devitt, who was sent off at Fratton Park.

Reggie Lambe scored the goal that took the point and goals by Charlie Wyke and Shaun Miller defeated Port Vale in the EFL Cup, all of which suggests they are buoyant as they strive for a promotion push.

Recommended Bet:
Back Carlisle @ 2.56/4

Barnet 2.77/4 v Accrington 2.89/5; the draw 3.55/2

Accrington boss John Coleman seemed to think Doncaster were the better side for much of his side's opening day 3-2 victory, so he wants more.

Sean McConville proved there was nothing wrong with the old guard who have been added to in the summer, striking an injury time winner and, as Opta point out, securing an assist as well.

Not delighted with the performance was the boss's verdict. They hit their visitors on the break for their first couple of goals but Coleman will expect them to be more dominant.

How much they can do that against an ever-dogged Barnet we shall see.

The Bees had a pretty solid opening day and substitutes Alex Nicholls plus Jean-Louis Akpa-Akpro, both summer recruits, really put their markers down for starting places. Martin Allen really knows he has competition for places.

As they were attacking throughout against Cambridge on the opening day, Accrington could have their work cut out trying to defend. Can they attack successfully on the break again is the question. Accrington have not been beaten in four against Barnet, state Opta, and that could be key. This could balance out for a draw.

Recommended Bet:
Back Barnet and Accrington to draw @ 3.55/2

Morecambe 3.02/1 v Blackpool 2.68/5; the draw 3.711/4

Opta provide the most telling stats about Morecambe for this derby fixture (a first between the teams in the Football League): the hosts have not kept a clean sheet in 24 games and have gone eight games without a victory.

Jim Bentley mentioned after defeat to Grimsby that he has "quite a few" inexperienced players in his squad, especially in the backline. He also has some perfectly experienced players going forward, Tom Barkhuizen and, on the wing, the evergreen Kevin Ellison. But he won't be able to carry the team for ever.

Gary Bowyer, the Seasiders' sixth permanent manager since 2012, says he and his squad are still getting to know each other, but they showed a pretty good understanding to defeat Exeter 2-0 on the opening day, with a goal from new boy Kyle Vassell. Morecambe have long been in Blackpool's shadow and that is unlikely to change here.

Recommended Bet:
Back Blackpool @ 2.68/5

Luton 1.84/5 v Yeovil 5.04/1; the draw 3.8514/5

What do we do with Luton Town, who are already proving hard to love for the punter? Regular readers will know I don't like backing teams who are odds-on, especially when they make as strong a start to the season as the Hatters.

Danny Hylton must be wondering what he has to do to be given a sustained chance at a higher level, having been sent on loan to AFC Wimbledon by Rotherham two years ago then helped Oxford to promotion only to move again.

He is now part of a strike force which boss Nathan Jones hopes will fire his side to promotion. Jack Marriott is his new partner, having top scored for Luton last season. Both scored on the opening day, when the Hatters scored three. In midweek the team followed up with another three goals in the League Cup against Aston Villa.

Yeovil haven't been too shabby either, Darren Way pleased with his new-look strike force of Tom Eaves, Ryan Hedges and Otis Khan, the latter scoring in the 2-0 win over Notts County. Then Matt Dolan scored from within his own half in an extra-time win at Walsall.

Either both sides have used up their goals quotas for the month already, or we're in for a high-scoring match. One way to avoid betting on an odds-on shot is to go for goals and back over 2.5 goals.

Recommended Bet:
Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.111/10

*You can read more League Two tips as well as Alan Dudman's thoughts on the week's League One action by visiting our dedicated English Football League section here on Betting.Betfair.

P/L 2016-17

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