League Two Betting: Back Calderwood to continue Cambridge revival

Ian Lamont
25 January 2019

Christian Doidge, the Forest Green Rovers striker

Christian Doidge rekindled his fire with Forest Green Rovers by scoring twice on Tuesday

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A change of manager has seen Cambridge pull away from the relegation zone and The U's can hold Exeter, says Ian Lamont, who also backs Forest Green and Christian Doidge to prosper at Stevenage...

"Matt Taylor doesn't seem to rate Tristan Abrahams, given his limited opportunities, and other recruits have been in midfield and defence. Exeter's top scorer is a defender, Pierce Sweeney."

Exeter need to find a new scorer

Exeter 2.26/5 v Cambridge 3.711/4; the draw 3.613/5

Cambridge have come on strong under Colin Calderwood, with pretty much the same squad he inherited. It seems that a new voice in the dressing room has done wonders.

The U's have won three games in a row, and Rushian Hepburn-Murphy playing a part in that having started twice since his loan move from Nottingham Forest.

They showed grit and determination to come back against Northampton, scoring the winner in the 90th minute.

The whipping at Milton Keynes seems long ago, but is only a few weeks, with David Amoo and Jevani Brown both scoring twice in three games.

Cambridge have had to go for it to step away from the relegation zone.

Exeter have been more active in the transfer market, but their results have been more prosaic, winning three in six but drawing one and losing two of their past four matches.

Opta says they have failed to score in back to back league games, but they have not done that in three consecutive games since October 2016. It is not a record boss Matt Taylor will want to repeat but it does reflect their current state.

Where will the goals really come from now they have signed Ryan Bowman to replace Jayden Stockley? Bowman hasn't got the most prolific record, about one goal in every four games, and Jonathan Forte is not the most regular scorer either.

Taylor doesn't seem to rate Tristan Abrahams, given his limited opportunities, and other recruits have been in midfield and defence. Their top scorer, Pierce Sweeney, is a defender.

It's not easy to find a striking solution in January, especially when you've just lost one who is so prominent. The Grecians have slipped from the top three to below the play-off places and fans would have little appetite for another end of season campaign after two failed ones. Taylor has his work cut out to turn this around - and to overcome Cambridge, who drew very few but might be satisfied with a point here.

Pressley continues Carlisle's upward curve

Port Vale 2.915/8 v Carlisle 2.77/4; the draw 3.55/2

Steve Pressley might have made a great start to his Carlisle managerial career, but then he has only continued the good work of his predecessor, John Sheridan.

That's not to diss Pressley's efforts, but to emphasise that the Cumbrians are in fantastic form and are now chasing a top three spot, having only ever looked like play-off contenders at best in previous seasons.

They've won seven of their past eight games, with 22 goals in that time.

Maybe he told keeper Adam Collin to get the ball out quicker for the second half of their 2-0 win over Cheltenham. But he's had no need to make major changes. Nonetheless he will have noted the Opta stat, no doubt, that Port Vale have conceded more goals from corners in League Two than any side bar Notts County, with whom they are level on nine.

Jamie Devitt and Hallam Hope are in great form and Carlisle are certainly in better form than their hosts, whose win at hapless Crawley was the only one they have had in six matches.

Boss Neil Aspin said it would be down to his players if he stayed on as boss. I just wonder how he is getting on with Tom Pope, who seemed totally revived when he took over. The striker has eight goals this season, while Aspin clearly feels he needs a boost in that area because he has signed Cardiff's Mark Harris, 20, on loan. The front man can play in several forward positions and has scored three times in 20 appearances for Newport this season.

Rovers can maintain fantastic away form

Stevenage 4.03/1 v Forest Green 2.111/10; the draw 3.711/4

It is to the advantage of clubs such as Forest Green that rules mean players can only play for two clubs in a season. In this case, Christian Doidge can only play for them or Bolton, having appearance in August for the League Two side.

It isn't always the case that the rules work for clubs or players, but now he's settled in again with a brace on Tuesday at home to Grimsby he's back up and running even if Mark Cooper does believe he was "damaged" by the experience of being loaned to the Trotters but the deal failing because of Bolton's transfer embargo.

I'm pretty sure Doidge will feel comfortable soon enough. However, it must be said, Rovers did pretty well without their top scorer of the past two seasons, as they press for a League One spot.

Doidge has only started seven games (and come on as substitute in another) but he's already joint top scorer with six, matched by Reuben Reid and midfielder George Williams, with Reece Brown, who netted on Tuesday as well, a nudge behind on five. Imagine what they could achieve now he's back!

Opta take great pleasure in pointing out that Doidge has scored 27% of the team's goals this season and last (26/97) as well as well as pointing out the team - this season - have picked up a 26 point total which is second only to Lincoln's 27.

They've won six and drawn two of their past 10 games and have become genuine promotion contenders. They will be looking to cement that by seeing off the challenge of another set of "pretenders" in that regard, Stevenage.

Dino Maamria's hosts have four wins and a draw in 10, by direct comparison and if they think they can build on two straight home wins they will find Forest Green far tougher than Crawley and Newport.

Signing a new goalkeeper on loan doesn't seem the biggest priority - Ben Kennedy and Dan
Newton haven't been the most prolific scorers with half a dozen each - but it clearly was right for the Boro boss to line up a spare behind Paul Farman.

The away win looks fairly priced, but for a little extra I think the visitors are going to have to score more than once to win, while the hosts look capable of netting, especially if they take the game to Forest Green like they did with Milton Keynes the other week. They've not been drawing blanks at home recently, so it seems reasonable that 2.35/4">over 2.5 goals is also value @ 2.35/4, especially with that Opta stat about a big points haul away.

P/L 2018-19

+2.32pt

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Recommended bets

Back Exeter and Cambridge to draw @ 3.613/5
Back Carlisle @ 2.77/4 to beat Port Vale
Back Forest Green @ 2.111/10 to beat Stevenage
Back over 2.5 goals in Stevenage v Forest Green @ 2.35/4