Luton seem surprisingly big odds to take another victory, at Barnet, after last week's mauling of Yeovil suggests Ian Lamont, and our man is also tipping Accrington, plus goals at Sincil Bank where big priced Morecambe just might spring a surprise...
"Swindon clearly believe they have a diamond in Kaiyne Woolery, for whom they paid Wigan £350,000. The striker spent half a season on loan at Forest Green last season and, bullishly, says he earned one promotion last season and has gone to the Wiltshire club for another."
Barnet [3.55] v Luton Town [2.3]; the draw [3.5]
Sometimes betting remains a mystery even to seasoned watchers of a section of sport. From their odds, anyone would think that Luton had grafted a narrow victory in their last match, or that Barnet will be one of their challengers for the title.
Neither of those facts is true. The Hatters smashed Yeovil 8-2 at home last weekend, without one of their key marksmen from last season, Danny Hylton, who is on the injury comeback trail.
Barnet drew 2-2 with Forest Green Rovers, who are new to League Two and were out to impress on their debut.
Sure, there is reason to be cautious backing a team which has just won by a large margin. Several times in such scenarios the team has struggled for chance in the next game. But when Nathan Jones then signs another forward, Harry Cornick from Bournemouth for an undisclosed fee, you get the impression that the team are eager to get into League One. No let up. No mercy.
They won't find life easy at The Hive, of course, because the Bees are no pushovers. Their odds suggest the layers don't fancy their chances. Rossi Eames has finally been given his chance at a proper stab at management this season after being a caretaker in the past.
They came back from 2-0 down at Forest Green, John-Louis Akpa-Akpro scoring in the absence of John Akinde. Even with new face Shaquille Coulthirst from Peterborough coming to Barnet and looking to impress, Luton could be a step too far as it is unlikely James Collins and Isaac Vassell will be allowed to run riot in front of goal again.
I did make an aside remark to someone last week that it might be worth backing over 3.5 goals in all Luton's games, but there just might be a reaction from Barnet's defence here and the visitors might have used up a lot of goals in one go. I'm happy to be cautious with Luton's price on the large side. You'll only get generous odds like these on Betfair.
Back Luton Town @ [2.3]
Swindon [2.6] v Exeter [3.4]; the draw [3.5]
It's hard to know whether Swindon have a diamond in Kaiyne Woolery, but they clearly believe they have if they have paid £350,000 to Wigan for him. The striker spent half a season on loan at Forest Green last season and, bullishly, says he earned one promotion last season and has gone to the Wiltshire club for another. The 22-year-old previously made an appearance for Notts County on loan, but clearly needs some regular football to establish himself in the Football League.
Swindon didn't spend much time in this division after relegation last time. Paolo di Canio took them straight back up in 2012. They emerged as strong candidates by Christmas and I managed to get them at 10-1 while they still sat third.
David Flitcroft has accumulated some higher level players and experience. Defender Kyle Knoyle (West Ham) and left-back Chris Hussey (Sheffield United, loan) are among them. Seven summer signings means the Robins want to fly. They were reportedly impressive in defeat at Norwich in midweek.
Exeter boss Paul Tisdale will be quietly satisfied with the season's start, a 1-0 win at home. At least they won at home, which they weren't doing at this stage last season.
Defeat at Charlton in midweek won't hurt him too much. He will just want to see David Wheeler and Reuben Reid perform. Perhaps on this occasion, however, keeper Christy Pym and defenders Jordan Moore-Taylor and Luke Croll will be more vital to gaining a positive result against a team which means business. Expect another low-scoring Exeter game.
Back the draw @ [3.5]
Yeovil [3.6] v Accrington Stanley [2.24]; the draw [3.4]
If Darren Way was looking for an easy follow up to build confidence after his side's 8-2 hammering at Luton last weekend, this isn't it.
Just like against the Hatters, Yeovil seemed to have had a tough time, on the statistics, against a much-changed Wolves side in the League Cup in midweek. They might have only lost 1-0 but they faced 16 shots against and only had two. Fortunately Wolves only had four on target and didn't give keeper Artur Krysiak the toughest of workouts.
The team and staff have offered to refund travelling fans' money after Saturday's defeat. It will take more than a loan of a 19-year-old from Birmingham, Corey O'Keeffe, if he comes in, to plug the gaps. Experience is probably what is needed more.
John Coleman, his opposite number, will be delighted with the selection headache he has after the 3-2 win over Preston in the League Cup. Billy Kee struck the late winner and will be looking to be Accrington's top scorer again this season.
With other players coming back to fight for places in a side where Coleman said there were some sparkling performances, he has every reason to state that the cup is a nice distraction but the aim is promotion. Accrington would be punching above their weight to achieve it but the manager knows fully how to motivate them, having pushed them during his time at the club. Beating teams such as Yeovil when they are low on confidence will be key to success this season. Coleman will demand they take no prisoners.
Back Accrington Stanley @ [2.24]
Lincoln [1.68] v Morecambe [5.8]; the draw [4.3]
Nope. Can't resist. I've tried all week to dismiss Morecambe for this match, but the odds just make me feel like a child in a sweetshop. It's far too tempting to take a bit of the [5.8]. Especially after they confounded my 1-1 and draw prediction last week by snatching a winner in injury time. They don't give up easily.
Have I had too many sherbet lemons? Lincoln, the National League champions, have signed a host of players over the summer, funded no doubt by last year's FA Cup heroics. Michael Bostwick (Peterborough) and Matt Green (Mansfield) are proven talent at this level and above. Billy Knott from Gillingham is another.
It isn't every team who will score two at Wycombe, as Danny Cowley's men did in their opening 2-2 draw. Their first home match in the Football League for six years will be a real celebration and they won't want to lose.
Bentley has added to his squad this week with midfielder Elliot Osborne, 21, from Fleetwood on loan until January. He's heard great things about him. He knows great things about other summer recruits such as Vadaine Oliver from York and Mitchell Lund from Doncaster. Is it enough to sustain them for a season or will they falter as often happens midway through the season?
Morecambe pushed Barnsley pretty close in the league cup in midweek, coming back to 3-3 before an injury time defeat, prompting Jim Bentley to say the Shrimps have to learn about game management. Well, Garry Thompson's strike seemed to manage the end of the game pretty well last Saturday!
And that's why I can't resist a little nibble on the away win. Morecambe can't be underestimated, especially early in the season. Maybe I should be going for the draw, but instead my saver bet is a few goals, with both teams looking to attack making over 3.5 goals tempting too, at [3.2].
Back Morecambe @ [5.8] 0.5pt
Back over 3.5 goals @ [3.2] 0.5pt