It's a return to League One for Alan Dudman this Saturday, and whilst Luton feature heavily again, he is backing Doncaster away from home at a decent price this weekend.....
"Can Rovers win here? Arguably they are in better form, and they gained a recent victory at Blackpool and a draw against Barnsley."
Stick with Hatters on Handicap again
Luton Town v Fleetwood Town
It's Luton again, and we visit the -1 market once more. Unless of course you don't mind taking [1.54] on the hosts - who are the form team in the division.
They covered the handicap nicely for us in my last instalment, and I was somewhat surprised to see them in the Luton -1 market priced up at [2.40] on Wednesday evening. £11 was there to be taken at that figure, and I anticipate that price to be a bit shorter come matchday.
League One has been difficult this season with no outstanding team. Portsmouth are doing very well, but they are just more consistent than the others. Barnsley can throw in the odd blip, whilst Sunderland are finding life tougher than maybe the market expected. That means punters are zoning in on teams with recent form, ergo we are getting some very short prices for home sides thus far. Luton seem to be getting shorter by the week!
The Hatters are now unbeaten in 14 league matches at Kenilworth Road (W12 D2) and they have won each of their last five. I am more interested in the handicap betting, and they have covered the goal deficit easily in their last four matches with victories at 4-0, 5-1, 4-1 and 2-0. With that in mind, the [2.40] looks very generous.
Fleetwood came through a tough FA Cup encounter last Monday at Guiseley in testing conditions, but they have lost their previous four matches on the road and I can oppose them here.
If you are interested in backing Luton for the title, they are [6.40] in the League One winner market.
Mileage in backing the bigger price draw
Accrington Stanley v Sunderland
On the face of it, Stanley should really be opposed with a run of six without a victory. In contrast, Sunderland have lost just once in their last 20 matches in the division, and are unbeaten in 11. The Wearsiders are priced at [2.24], with Accrington at [3.20] and the draw at [3.40]. Backing the Draw No Bet for the away side is more than reasonable at [1.65].
I haven't had much luck this season in backing the draw, but there's a case to be made for going that way come Saturday.
Stanley have drawn four times at home this season whilst Sunderland have collected three away. The Black Cats have also totted up seven stalemates from their previous 20, so the [3.40] is a fair price. Throw into the mix Accy's knack of the 1-1 with seven and counting, it could be worth chancing here.
The hosts are maybe a touch light on experience but I still believe they are a half-decent side, whilst Sunderland can count on a fine defence away from home. Only Blackpool and Portsmouth have conceded fewer than Jack Ross' team, who have shown good character at various stages this season. Indeed, the local press commented at how they have responded when "rattled" on a number of occasions.
I think this could be quite a tight game, but Sunderland have scored in every match away from the Stadium Of Light this campaign. Therefore the 1-1 comes into play for Correct Score backers, although I am happy sticking with the outright draw bet.
Donny the bet away from home
Bristol Rovers v Doncaster Rovers
Doncaster are enjoying a few good results of late, although I am not entirely convinced that they are a genuine playoff contender. Their league position dictates they are, but they have to prove they can kick-on with a few more victories rather than move down two and back up two.
However, manager Grant McCann's front-foot philosophy is working quite well. He has a nice blend in attack with a bit of pace, and a good midfield that includes playing a blocker in front of the back four - although Herbie Kane (on loan from Liverpool) has been earning the plaudits. Doncaster have also tightened up their defending of the dead-ball after a less-than-stellar October in that area.
Can Rovers win here? Arguably they are in better form, and they gained a recent victory at Blackpool and a draw against Barnsley. Compare that to Bristol Rovers - who have only won twice at home all season and arrive into this game with three successive losses at 1-2, 1-2 and 1-3. They are one of those League One teams I cannot trust, and at [2.86], I cannot really back them on current form.
Initially I always look to the Under 2.5 with the hosts; but I was somewhat surprised with a tally of five from 11 in that area, and the [1.63] price for that bet is a complete non-starter.
We can just about get away with the price on McCann's side here; especially as they carry a threat with their dead-ball delivery at the other end.
Alan Dudman's P&L, 2018/19
League One: -2.48
League One regular season 2017/18: +18.48
Back Luton Town -1 v Fleetwood 0.5pt @ [2.40]
Back The Draw 0.5pt @ [3.40] Accrington v Sunderland
Back Doncaster Rovers to win 0.5pt @ [2.58]