Midweek League One Betting: Posh to succumb to Bomber's Lions

Experienced Millwall striker Steve Morison will lead the line at the ABAX
Experienced Millwall striker Steve Morison will lead the line at the ABAX

League One returns on Tuesday night with a full set of fixtures. Our third tier man Alan Dudman previews three games, and is expecting a good performance from Millwall as they travel to Peterborough...

"With Peterborough's midfield diamond, I'm not convinced it will work against the Lions (if they go that way of course). Millwall are a physical side that can play - especially out wide. Both goals on Saturday against the MK Dons in a cracking 2-2 game, came from crosses."

Back Millwall draw no bet @ 2.01/1

Sheffield United 1.855/6 v Southend United 4.507/2, the draw 3.55


It seems Newcastle United are struggling a bit to live up to their billing as ante-post favourites in the Championship market, and from their price of 2.809/5, they have drifted out to 4.804/1 following two defeats.

There's a similar tale unfolding with Sheffield United - although I did warn you about them before a ball had been kicked. The Blades are winless in three games (including the EFL Cup), and their odds now to win League One stand at 8.6015/2 - with Bolton halving in price from 15.014/1 with a pair of wins.

Two games in the third tier is a long time in football (a saying I am hoping will catch on). If this was the first match of the season, Sheffield United would be chalked-up at around 1.625/8 I reckon, therefore despite the odds-on price, there is still some mileage to be taken here. Mainly because of Southend's poor start to the campaign.

The Shrimpers have conceded eight in three games, losses to Port Vale and Gillingham in the league has highlighted a thin squad. Manager Phil Brown lamented his use of two substitutes at the weekend, almost bemoaning the fact they were out on loan at Chelmsford City last season.

Brown's side were outplayed by Vale on Saturday, the game looked a poor one. Brown even described their opponents as 'not fantastic'. Backing them would be a big worry.

The Blades at least gained a point a couple of days ago with a 1-1 against Rochdale. There's still an element of nerves around Bramall Lane, and that may have settled one or two wobbles. But Dale are a good team at this level and are no mugs. If you're expecting them to head to Yorkshire and roll over at any stage of the season, you'd be wrong.

The home team have been unchanged in three, and manager Chris Wilder is probably going on the conservative side with two screening midfielders. However they have decent width, and striker Leon Clarke is proven in the third tier.

Southend have lost eight successive games, which is a reason to take a fairly generous 1.855/6 on offer for a home win.


Recommended Bet (half point)
Back Sheffield United to win @ 1.855/6


Gillingham 2.01/1 v Swindon Town 3.505/2, the draw 3.65


I don't like using the 'v' word - value. As one price can be attractive to some, but not to others. We all have different punting rules and styles. But Gillingham are currently trading at 2.01/1. Considering they're currently top of the league, I think that's a fair price.

However, the selection is more to do with the fact that Swindon look light up front, and certainly lack a physical presence. I am a fan of Jonathan Obika, but he does miss a few games with injury - and he's sat out two already with a groin problem. Town are a young side that like to get on the ball, and are dangerous if you sit off them - but this should suit Gillingham perfectly.

Justin Edinburgh's side don't mind having less of the possession, and their strength already this season seems to be down the flanks with crosses. Defender Paul Konchesky looks a good bit of business, he has played very well in both League One starts. Edinburgh has recently added former Spurs midfielder Jamie O'Hara to the ranks - and he played 39 times for Fulham last term.

Swindon lost 3-1 on Saturday at Chesterfield - in typical Swindon fashion. 59 per cent of the possession meant nothing, as they rarely looked menacing in the final third, and Danny Wilson's side were spot-on tactically.

The Kent club have produced plenty of shots in their two league games thus far, 14 against Southend and 18 on Saturday. I like the way they matched Bury physically at the weekend. As a Hammers' fan, I was more than interested to see how recent loan signing Josh Pask played at centre-back. The reports were glowing with an assured display.

In short, Gillingham carry more of a threat, especially with the crosses. JET (Jay Emmanuel-Thomas) needs to show a bit more though - he was quite poor up front on Saturday.


Recommended Bet (half point)
Back Gillingham draw no bet @ 1.804/5

Peterborough United 3.1085/40 v Millwall 2.305/4, the draw 3.45


Let's talk about the great enigma - Peterborough United. Three points from two games so far, and rookie manager Grant McCann suffered his first loss following Saturday's 0-1 defeat to Bradford. Rather disappointingly - the goal kings of the league didn't really create anything of note. The big attacking players were quiet, and Marcus Maddison for all his quality had a below-par game.

They were also out-passed by a Bradford side that don't concede too many goals. Tuesday night will represent a thorough test with one of the best teams in League One.

With Peterborough's midfield diamond, I'm not convinced it will work against the Lions (if they go that way of course). Millwall are a physical unit that can play, especially out wide. Both goals on Saturday against the MK Dons in a cracking 2-2 game, came from crosses.

The Londoners might have a bit of joy down the flanks here. I was intrigued to see how Posh left-back Jerome Binnion-Williams has started. I saw him a few times at Leyton Orient last season, and whilst he is good going forward, he is prone to a defensive mistake and his head can drop.

Millwall created plenty of chances on Saturday at Stadium MK. Dons boss Karl Robinson reacted in glowing teams by saying 'there wasn't a bad player on the pitch'. The best might have been Kieran Agard, just signed for a record fee by the Buckinghamshire club, and he bagged both in a great comeback for MK.

However, Neil Harris' team have looked very good so far, and they could be worth a goal here. I remember their trip to leaders Burton Albion last season on Sky TV, and for all the ball the Brewers enjoyed, Millwall were great on the break. It's unlikely Posh will set up for a 0-0 draw here - that's not their way.


Recommended Bets (both half point)

Back Millwall draw no bet @ 2.01/1
Back both teams to score @ 1.9010/11


*You can read more League One tips as well as Ian Lamont's thoughts on the week's League Two action by visiting our dedicated English Football League section here on Betting.Betfair.

2016/17 League One P/L

-0.63pts

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