Midweek League One Betting: Oppose Charlton for Shrewsbury trip

Alan Dudman
27 February 2017

Karl Robinson's Charlton could be in for a tough night at Shrewsbury on Tuesday

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A 'two from three' column for the second successive week for Alan Dudman on Saturday, who looks forward to a busy night of League One football on Tuesday evening with the return of Lee Clark, and a best bet on Shrewsbury....

"The market should have these two flipped around, and if you are a layer, then the price of Charlton to take on is probably one of the most attractive options come Tuesday night."

Back Shrewsbury Town to beat Charlton @ 3.052/1

Millwall 1.824/5 v Peterbrough United 4.804/1, the draw 3.7511/4

For lovers of the defensive crafts, watching Millwall must remain a source of constant joy. Saturday's column pointed you in the direction of a low-scoring game at Oldham, with the advice to take the clean sheet - and Neil Harris' side did not disappoint. However, the 0-0 scoreline masked two missed penalties late in the match for the Londoners, who should have wrapped up the game beforehand.

Last weekend's shut-out was their eighth consecutive clean sheet, with six straight in League One. According to Opta stats; that is their longest run since April 2001. Their record in that department against Peterborough is hardly shabby either; with six collected in their last nine matches.

The Posh ran out 3-1 winners on Saturday against a Rochdale side who seem incapable of gaining a result at the moment. The Dale played 25 minutes with nine men, and their ability to defend set-pieces is probably the worst in the division right now.

As Peterborough have a reputation for being a 'goals' team, this might just boost the price of another Millwall clean sheet - after all, reputations seem to be able to influence odds. In fact, looking at the market on Monday, that bet was available to take at 2.486/4 - and anything near that come Tuesday evening makes it the play.

The away team are too inconsistent at the moment to trust. One week they can win 3-1, the next they lose 4-1. An overall ledger of WLLWLW is typical of this division, and Posh can't seem to click a run of results together.

Millwall's home record of W9 D5 L3 warrants a fair enough price for the outright win at 1.824/5, but such is their success at controlling games at the moment with their strong defence, we can go in again for the clean sheet. Steve Morison could return, and a boost to the striking ranks could prompt a look at the 1-0 and 2-0 Correct Scores.

Recommended Bet
Back Millwall Clean Sheet 'Yes' 0.5pt @ 2.407/5

Shrewsbury Town 3.052/1 v Charlton Athletic 2.486/4, the draw 3.4012/5

I made the point earlier how reputations and names can influence a price. Shrewsbury have won six of their last eight league games at Greenhous Meadow, whilst Charlton have picked up just three points in six matches - and those points were from draws. The Addicks are clearly low in confidence and have won just four away all season - and yet they still are the favourites here at 2.486/4.

The market should have these two flipped around, and if you are a layer, then the price of Charlton to take on is probably one of the most attractive options come Tuesday night.

League One holds some big names, but Shrewsbury boss Paul Hurst wouldn't be one. However, since taking over when Salop were rock-bottom of the table in October, Hurst has hauled them four points above safety, and he clearly has the players with rather than against him.

In fact, Hurst has mentioned the old-fashioned virtues. A win against AFC Wimbledon prompted the words: fight, heart, spirit and determination to be aired post-match by the boss. Shrewsbury have those qualities in abundance, especially at home.

In their run of seven victories from ten under Hurst at the Greenhous, they have beaten the Dons, Bury, Oldham, Bradford, Bristol Rovers and Oxford. They also managed to stay in the game against the form team of the moment in Fleetwood - losing narrowly 0-1.

The Addicks won the reverse clash 3-0, but according to Opta stats, they have never beaten Shrewsbury in both league fixtures in a single season before, and Tuesday's game won't be the easiest for Karl Robinson's men. Town are happy to scrap for 90 minutes, whereas Charlton seem too ponderous and are lacking any sort of guile at the moment.

The outright 3.052/1 for a home success looks my best bet of the night, especially as Shrewsbury do have a goal in them under Hurst.

Recommended Bet
Back Shrewsbury Town to win 1pt @ 3.052/1

Bury 2.226/5 v Coventry City 3.309/4 the draw 3.7011/4

Lee Clark was named as the surprising manager of Bury two weeks ago, and I for one was overjoyed as I fondly recall his brilliant Huddersfield team in League One back in 2010-2011. He fashioned a superb side that were great to watch, and it felt like I tipped them every week back then. Hopefully I was excused, as they did embark on a 43-game unbeaten run (although I seem to remember being on the wrong side of a few draws seven years ago).

A painful lesson in not utilising the Draw No Bet market more often!

In short, the 44-year-old will be an excellent appointment for the Shakers. Clark was a promising manager who lost his way at Birmingham subsequently. Spells at Blackpool and Kilmarnock forced him off the radar slightly, but he galvanised the Scottish club - who were facing relegation when he took over 12 months ago. I always had him down as a future Newcastle manager one day, and I think he will do well.

Bury have won both games under Clark. And this was the team that had the worst defence in the Football League. His contacts have already come up trumps, with the addition of former Birmingham player Paul Caddis.

The Shakers rode their luck a bit against Charlton on Saturday, but they always looked a threat going forward - especially in the 3-5-2 that has been used in both games by Clark on the counter-attack. Their overall form now reads WWDWLDDW - which should be too much for a Coventry side that have won just once away all season.

According to Opta, the Sky Blues have kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight league meetings with Bury, but the Shakers have scored in ten of their last 11 matches.

Recommended Bet
Back Bury to win 0.5pt @ 2.226/5

*You can read more League One tips as well as Ian Lamont's thoughts on the week's League Two action (who is showing a profit of over 40 points this term) by visiting our dedicated English Football League section here on Betting.Betfair.

Alan Dudman's P&L 2016/17

League One: -1.84

FA Cup: +8.05

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