League One Betting: Don't stop backing Fleetwood for max points

Alan Dudman
24 February 2017

Uwe Rosler's Fleetwood are in the hunt for promotion this season

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Fleetwood Town are enjoying a marvellous run at the moment, and our League One man Alan Dudman thinks they are a good price to pick up three points this Saturday...

"The stats are impressive for Fleetwood. They are 16 unbeaten with eight clean sheets in that run, and they haven't lost a game for three months."

Back Fleetwood Town to beat Northampton Town @ 2.1211/10

Gillingham 3.259/4 v Southend United 2.407/5, the draw 3.45

Although Southend are winless in five against Gillingham, this looks the perfect time to face the Kent club - who have not won a game in 11 matches. In fact, since Ady Pennock took over as manager following Justin Edinburgh's departure on January 4th, the Gills have yet to win under Pennock, and they haven't kept a clean sheet either.

Southend meanwhile are becoming a fairly reliable outfit, and they produced a decent performance on Tuesday when whipping fellow playoff hopefuls Peterborough. United boss Phil Brown hailed it as a 'massive team performance', and the Shrimpers are now sitting in fifth.

Armed with the Opta stats, Southend have lost just one of their last ten away league fixtures (W5 D4), and have conceded just five goals. That makes them a good bet at around 2.407/5 - which is a touch on the large side.

The Essex side do score, and they've enjoyed a profitable February with three healthy wins at 4-1, 2-0 and 3-1. The only defeat of this month came away at Millwall (who are very good at the Den these days), but Brown's side performed with credit despite losing 0-1.

Over 2.5 Goals should come into consideration courtesy of the home team's lack of defensive resolution, and they haven't kept a clean sheet since December 17th.

The Gills have 'enjoyed' a run of netting a string of 1-1 and 2-2 scorelines since December, but Southend should have too much for a struggling team, and the extra bit of insurance with the Draw No Bet will do.

Recommended Bet
Back Southend United 0.5pt Draw No Bet @ 1.855/6

Fleetwood Town 2.1211/10 v Northampton Town 3.8014/5, the draw 3.7011/4

If Uwe Rosler's Fleetwood pick up three points on Saturday (with results going their way elsewhere with Bolton and Scunthorpe), they can go second in the division behind Sheffield United - and they are the form team in League One at the moment.

The stats are impressive for Fleetwood. They are 16 unbeaten with eight clean sheets in that run, and they haven't lost a game for three months. So why can we back them at 2.1211/10?

I highlighted last week that Scunthorpe were a ridiculous price at 5.509/2 away to Sheffield United, a game where they took the lead but were held 1-1. Maybe it's the unfashionable name, because if Bolton were 16 matches unbeaten, they would be around 1.705/7 or shorter to back.

Since switching to the 3-5-2 formation, the Cod Army have excelled. Rosler made a decision to ditch the open, carefree stuff from earlier in the season, to a more resolute side that defend well and pose a threat from set-pieces. Whilst Opta point to the fact that goalkeeper Alex Cairns has yet to end up on a losing side in 16 games for Fleetwood this season - conceding just nine goals at an average of 0.6 per match.

Northampton have yet to win away under new manager Justin Edinburgh, but they have some fine attacking players in John-Joe O'Toole, Paul Anderson and Alex Revell. However Fleetwood are beating some good sides lately and looked very comfortable in winning 1-0 at the MK Dons on Tuesday night - and they can keep the run going on Saturday.

Recommended Bet
Back Fleetwood Town to win 0.5pt @ 2.1211/10

Oldham Athletic 3.8014/5 v Millwall 2.265/4, the draw 3.259/4

The astonishing defensive record of Millwall continued on Tuesday night with a 0-0 against Chesterfield at the Den. As results go, it was a fixture the Lions should have won. That was echoed by Millwall's boss Neil Harris who said: "We should be winning games like that."

However, for those that have been backing the clean sheet for Harris' side recently, they have been cleaning up in 2017. According to Opta, the Londoners have conceded the fewest goals (three) and are yet to lose this calendar year.

Add to that an unbeaten record of 14 games and seven successive clean sheets, Millwall's defence should be the focus of the bets for Saturday again.

Oldham are not without a chance, and they are a different side under John Sheridan these days, who has turned their results around since taking over from Stephen Robinson. The Latics have picked up ten points in February to haul themselves out of the relegation zone.

However, Opta stats strongly point to an away win here. Oldham have won just two of their last 13 home league fixtures against Millwall, whilst the Lions have won their last five league matches in a row against Oldham (conceding only once).

Both teams could have lacked sharpness in their respective 0-0 draws on Tuesday night, but another low-scoring game could be on the cards here for Saturday.

Recommended Bet
Back Millwall to keep a clean sheet 0.5pt @ 2.01/1