League One Betting: Hill's Dale are still alive with the sound of playoffs

Keith Hill's Rochdale are still in the hunt for the League One playoffs
Keith Hill's Rochdale are still in the hunt for the League One playoffs

Alan Dudman is hoping Rochdale can continue their high-scoring form this Saturday, and he thinks Dale are also worth a win bet for this weekend's League One preview...

"Rochdale are a robust team, physical, and they like to move the ball forward as quickly as possible. With a Spotland record of W11 D5 and L3, they are one of the better home teams in the division."

Back Rochdale to beat Northampton @ 1.814/5

Fleetwood Town 1.804/5 v Swindon Town 5.204/1, the draw 3.7011/4

There is the potential for a shock or two for this Saturday's fixture list, especially given that with just seven games to go, teams are now priced up on what they need to achieve, hence why we have plenty of long odds-on shots this weekend.

Fleetwood might be the safest 1.804/5 chance, as their record of conceding just one goal in their last seven League One fixtures, and 13 clean sheets in 22 games is rather impressive. Town boss Uwe Rosler said on the crucial run-in: "I think now it's important to keep clean sheets."

The German has been linked with the manager's job at Norwich City this week, so I am hoping despite the speculation, the Cod Army are going to be their usual miserly best.

According to Opta, Fleetwood have failed to score in their previous two games (0-0 draws with Bury and Wimbledon) - as many as they'd failed to do so in their opening 37 matches of the season. Three points will be imperative for Town on Saturday, especially as second-placed Bolton have hit form with a vengeance of late.

Swindon are capable of a big away victory, as displayed with a shock 2-1 success at Bolton earlier this season. However, they have lost five of their previous six on the road and are conceding too many goals. In fact, of those six matches, four have been Over 2.5 Goals.

Brighton loanee Rohan Ince has been a bit of star for the Robins, and his ball-winning attributes have helped with three victories in the nine matches he has appeared in - and he made a big impact in Saturday's 1-0 success against Millwall. I expect a similar sort of low-scoring affair here, and would certainly look to the Fleetwood 1-0 win to trade on.

Recommended Bet
Back Fleetwood Town to win 0.5pt @ 1.804/5

Peterborough United 2.506/4 v Charlton Athletic 2.982/1, the draw 3.505/2

The Peterborough Telegraph's assessment of the Posh performance during Saturday's 1-0 win at Gillingham pulled no punches. It sounded a terrible match, with the one highlight being the 25-yarder from Junior Morais. The manner of the victory might cause concern for Peterborough fans, as the Gills are the worst defensive team in League One - yet the match still finished 1-0.

Whether Grant McCann can find that attacking football for the remainder of the season looks questionable. They are 11th in the table and time is running out for a promotion push, but in truth, there are many superior teams to Posh at the moment. Although Charlton are not one of them.

The Addicks have not been playing well for a while. They are winless in six away League One fixtures, with just one victory from their previous 12 matches. I would want a higher price to back than the 2.982/1 on offer for Saturday.

Where does this leave us for a proposed punt?

According to Opta stats, Peterborough have never beaten Charlton in a home league match (W0 D3 L2). However, with the hosts priced-up at 6/4, I'm not sure the backers are too convinced either.

Considering Peterborough really struggled to break down a poor Gillingham team and offered little of note in terms of attack, I would lean towards the Under 2.5 Goals here. This despite Opta revealing that in 18 matches between these two, they have never played out a goalless draw (and that includes 30 goals in the last seven matches). But for me, the two sides are struggling for rhythm and they both look too nervous and frightened to make mistakes.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals 0.5pt @ 1.855/6

Rochdale 1.814/5 v Northampton Town 4.30100/30, the draw 3.953/1

Keith Hill's Rochdale are not exactly easy to predict. I'll reel off their previous nine games to highlight their form; 3-1, 1-3, 3-3, 4-1, 2-1, 2-2, 3-1 and 3-3.

Those numbers might resemble a new intricate tactical formation (false full-backs anyone?), but one thing the Dale are guaranteeing at the moment is goals. Backing the Over 2.5 Goals and the BTTS would have proved very profitable for those that latched on to this, whilst the 3-3 Correct Score going in on three occasions is something we are unlikely to see with any other team at this level.

Can we get another? Hopefully. Northampton ship a few, in fact they are one of the worst defensive teams on the road in the third tier with a 'goals against' tally of 37. We can add to that too, as the Cobblers have been involved in six Over 2.5 Goals from their previous seven matches.

Despite Northampton's manager Justin Edinburgh insisting his team are improving on their travels, I am not as convinced - by either the form and also Edinburgh (who failed at Gillingham).

Rochdale are a robust team, physical, and they like to move the ball forward as quickly as possible. With a Spotland record of W11 D5 and L3, they are one of the better home teams in the division.

A bet on the home team is also backed-up by the Opta stats here, as Dale are unbeaten in six home matches with Northampton (W3 D3), and the Cobblers' only victory in their previous 10 came in 2013.

If you are looking for a bet in-running, Northampton have conceded a league-high seven times in the 90th minute this season.

Recommended Bets
Back Rochdale to win 0.5pt @ 1.814/5
Back Both Teams To Score 0.5pt @ 1.758/11

Alan Dudman's P&L 2016/17

League One: +0.59
FA Cup: +8.05

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