League One Betting: The Iron can suprise Blades in big two clash

Alan Dudman
17 February 2017

Second-placed Scunthorpe look a decent outside bet at Sheffield United on Saturday

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Plenty of the promotion chasing sides face big games this weekend, and Alan Dudman thinks Scunthorpe can cause a shock at Sheffield United in the top two clash at Bramall Lane on Saturday...

"But I have said before here that no one at this level is unbeatable. Saturday's game is first against second, and I am not sure that Scunthorpe deserve to be as big as 5.509/2, especially as Sheffield United lost at home to Fleetwood last month."

Back Scunthorpe United to win @ 5.509/2

Bradford City 2.206/5 v Bolton Wanders 3.90, the draw 3.55

The draw plan with Bradford was hit by a late 81st minute goal on Tuesday, but there's no reason to stop us going in again for Saturday as two of the top teams in League One meet at Valley Parade.

Indeed, according to Opta, this will be the first meeting in Yorkshire between the two since 1998, and Bradford are the only team in the third tier without a defeat at home all season (D10 W6).

These two played out a 0-0 draw at Bolton earlier in the campaign in front of a crowd of nearly 18,000. That was a rather cagey affair, and Wanderers managed just one shot on target the whole game. I sense something similar could happen.

Bolton boss Phil Parkinson knows how to shut down teams, and away from home, the Trotters have conceded just ten goals. They are also the best unit at defending from set-pieces according to Opta, and they have let in the joint-fewest along with Sheffield United (five).

Bradford's high percentage of draws this season means the trading option of using the 3.55 is a must, especially given the strength of Bolton's back line on the road. City's defence isn't too shabby either - conceding just 12 goals at home this term.

The Under 2.5 is a fairly obvious bet, as ten of Bolton's 13 away games this season have hit the target. Bradford's ten draws at home are currently standing at 80% in terms of the Under 2.5.

The Bantams were more expansive on Tuesday when switching to a 4-3-3, but the visitors might be able to keep chances at a premium - especially the way Bradford lack a bit of a killer instinct.

Recommended Bet
Back The Draw 0.5pt @ 3.55

Sheffield United 1.695/7 v Scunthorpe United 5.509/2, the draw 4.216/5

When Sheffield United take the lead in a game, they have a good record in making it count. According to Opta stats; they have won 19 times in the 23 matches they have gone in front. From an in-running point of view, that doesn't do an awful lot for the skinny price of 1.695/7, but there's a lot to admire about Chris Wilder's side as they are an intelligent team that also like to take risks.

But I have said before here that no one at this level is unbeatable. Saturday's game is first against second, and I am not sure that Scunthorpe deserve to be as big as 5.509/2, especially as Sheffield United lost at home to Fleetwood last month.

In fact, I anticipate that price to shorten a bit before Saturday. It's too big.

Between them, these two have 123 points and have scored 115 goals. They are the top two in terms of scoring (Blades 58 and Scunthorpe 57), and according to Opta; have the leading goal-getters in the division with Billy Sharp (20) and Josh Morris (18). With all that considered, the Over 2.5 is a likely play. Especially as the duo played out a 2-2 draw back in September.

Surprisingly for the pair of highest scorers, both were held 0-0 on Tuesday night, although Scunthorpe played against a useful Walsall team in quite an entertaining match.

The visitors have won 17 matches this term and eight of those have been away. They are overpriced this weekend, and it's not often you get the chance to back the team in second at 5.509/2.

Recommended Bet
Back Scunthorpe United to win 0.5pt @ 5.509/2

Walsall 2.707/4 v Peterborough United 2.809/5, the draw 3.45

The market sees this as a potential stalemate, and it is having trouble splitting the two. However, I have been blowing the Walsall trumpet in recent columns as an improving side, and the Opta stats back that up. A victory for the Saddlers in this match would be their best run of home form since winning five on the spin in 2013. They've won each of their last three at home.

Tuesday's 0-0 draw against Scunthorpe was a rattling good result at Glanford Park. The Iron are the highest scoring team at home in the league, yet Walsall looked very organised defensively with their back three, and they are really getting to grips with the 3-5-1-1 system.

I tipped them at a big price the week before at Bolton, but they were bullied in that game, and it was over at the break. They are a better team than that.

Peterborough's attacking mojo is not quite there, and their usual goal tally is probably a bit shorter than the par. In fact they have only scored 19 goals on their travels this term, and manager Grant McCann hasn't really found a front two pairing this season.

Walsall will be hoping Belgian midfielder Florent Cuvelier won't be out of action for too long. He suffered a calf injury on Tuesday, and his run of fitness has coincided with Jon Whitney's side producing their best set of results this term.

Peterborough's form reads WLWLLWL, so the inconsistency doesn't make them a 2.809/5 chance away from home.

Recommended Bet
Back Walsall to win 0.5pt @ 2.707/4