The League One fixtures continue to roll, and Alan Dudman moves on to Easter Monday with a look at the live Sky game involving Sheffield United and Bradford City...
"It will be interesting to see if the Sheffield United price drifts on Monday morning, as I think plenty will want to take them on. I am happy to go with the visitors at the odds, despite their poor record historically."
Sheffield United 1.9520/21 v Bradford City 3.4012/5, the draw 3.7511/4
Monday 12:15, Live on Sky Sports 1
The plan to side with Port Vale against Sheffield United on Good Friday had some logic, but the execution was poor (by Vale anyway). The Blades won in a 3-0 canter, and are now League One champions following Bolton's 1-0 defeat at Oldham on Saturday.
United deserve it, with 91 points already, they've been the best team by some way, and such a big club deserves to be in the Championship. In terms of punting and doing this column I won't miss them due to the skinny odds every game!
The thinking behind Friday's bet was that Sheffield United might have taken a step back, or foot of the gas, all those wretched cliches. But it's worth adopting the same tactic here, as they have now won the title. I don't know how their celebrations went (or indeed if they have celebrated yet), but Bradford are a decent side and one of the best to watch at this level. Unfortunately they draw too many.
I haven't seen the hosts trade at 1.9520/21 for a while, so perhaps the layers are expecting a party atmosphere. Bradford after all still have plenty to play for; with three games remaining, they are four points behind second-placed Bolton. It's an outside shot, but they can go up automatically.
Opta stats do not favour the Bantams here, in fact they have a dreadful record at Bramall Lane. They haven't won a league game there since 1988. Whilst Sheffield United have lost just one of their last 21 against City.
These two played out a brilliant 3-3 draw at Valley Parade in October; a match described at the time as one of the best seen at this level. Billy Sharp scored twice in a tremendously attacking game and the Blades No.10 has 26 goals to his name this term. Over 2.5 Goals is worth a look.
It will be interesting to see if the Sheffield United price drifts on Monday morning, as I think plenty will want to take them on. I am happy to go with the visitors at the odds, despite their poor record historically.
Back Bradford City Draw No Bet 0.5pt @ 3.02/1
Walsall 2.206/5 v Swindon Town 2.608/5, the draw 3.65
Probably a tricky game to price up this one. Walsall are the better team, but they are safe in mid-table. Swindon on the other hand have been fighting a relegation battle all season, and are currently 22nd on 44 points - just one behind Port Vale and two behind Bury. Town are 1.501/2 in the Relegation Market - with £20 to take at the time of writing for those odds.
It could be one of those markets in which Swindon might hunt down favouritism purely on the basis they have more to play for. The Robins aren't actually in bad form, though, and are undefeated in four matches conceding only one goal.
I opposed Walsall on Friday at Shrewsbury, based on their poor away form (winning just three on the road), but they earned a point to make it ten Under 2.5 games from their last 11 - and that's the way I am heading for Monday.
The Saddlers have lost just one of their last eight home league matches, whilst Opta stats reveal that Swindon have been defeated in eight of their previous 11 away trips - but Swindon pop up when I least expect it - notably the 1-0 victory at Fleetwood earlier in April.
Walsall's record of 1-1 and 0-0 scorelines this term makes me want to look at the Correct Scores here, with Jon Whitney's side collecting eight 1-1s and five 0-0s. They managed just two shots on target on Friday at Wimbledon, whilst Swindon can frustrate teams (and no doubt their own fans).
The smart call is to side with Under 2.5 Goals, or even the Under 1.5 Goals.
Back Under 2.5 Goals 0.5pt @ 1.855/6
Back 0-0 0.5pt @ 11.010/1 and 1-1 0.5pt @ 9.08/1 Correct Scores
Charlton Athletic 1.8810/11 v Gillingham 4.2016/5, the draw 3.7511/4
It's been a while since Charlton were available to back at 1.8810/11 for a game, and dealing in facts and value, they are a terrible price for Easter Monday. I suspect the odds are factoring in the weakness of their opponents, but I still wouldn't want to take such a skinny figure.
We are going fully-armed with the Opta stats for this fixture, as Gillingham are the only side in League One without an away clean sheet this season. Indeed, in the last seven matches for the Kent club, both teams have scored in each of those games. All eyes on the Over 2.5 Goals and the Both Teams To Score markets.
I've mentioned Gillingham's ropey defence a few times this term - and with 73 goals conceded - they have the worst backline in the division. Even Chesterfield cannot match that.
The Good Friday matches were kinder to Gillingham - who gained a 3-1 victory against Bristol Rovers courtesy of Cody McDonald. Charlton were less fortunate - and were held against already-relegated Coventry. Addicks' boss Karl Robinson criticised a lack of a winning mentality after the game, which also came in the wake of fresh speculation concerning a takeover in SE7.
Opta state that the Londoners are unbeaten in their last 11 league meetings with the Gills, but the visitors do score goals. In fact, since the turn of the year, they have netted in 16 of their 19 matches (scoring two in a game on six occasions).
Only two points separate this pair, and neither are totally ruled out of relegation. In fact, to back either team to go down in that market Gillingham are 5.04/1 and Charlton are 6.05/1. That tells us that the odds-on price this Monday should be avoided.
Back Both Teams To Score 0.5pt @ 1.855/6
Back Gillingham to win 0.5pt @ 4.2016/5
Alan Dudman's P&L 2016/17
League One: -0.70pts
FA Cup: +8.05pts
Get the Best Odds on English football with Betfair!
Betfair has had the best odds on all domestic English league football since the start of December. So when you win, you win bigger! Click here for full details.