League One Betting: Millers the value on the road to beat Posh

Rotherham manager Paul Warne
Paul Warne has taken Rotherham to the top of the third tier

All three of Alan Dudman's tips were successful last Saturday, including a 3.711/4 Wimbledon win. Our League One man looks ahead to this weekend's action, which includes a Friday night game on Sky...

"I've made the case plenty of times for backing Rotherham on the road, but lately, the markets have wised-up. However, we get the chance to side with them at 2.427/5 for this."

Back Rotherham @ 2.427/5 to beat Peterborough

Sunderland v Doncaster Rovers
Friday January 24, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Main Event

Black Cats in form, but Rovers good enough for a point

This is a good one for the Sky cameras on Friday, as they've picked Sunderland at the point of the season where they have hit their best spell. Victory against Doncaster could take them above fourth-placed Coventry.

Currently in a seven-game unbeaten streak, the hosts are about the right price at 1.9520/21. I expect it could come under a little pressure come kick off time.

Doncaster are good team and look overpriced here at 4.47/2. These two squared off against each other on the 29th December; with Sunderland coming out on top with a 2-1 success, but Rovers played quite well. They probably suffered a bit as Phil Parkinson's side got off to a lightning fast start.

Darren Moore likes his Doncaster team to play football, and it was a real clash of styles last month between the pair, as Sunderland can be a bit more direct as they tend to fire the ball up to target man Charlie Wyke and have runners either side.

Darren Moore - Shout - 1280.jpg

However, there's no arguing with Parkinson's response following calls for him to go. They produced their best display of the season recently with a 4-0 success against Wycombe, but these spells are not uncommon in the third tier.

Parky is likely to go with his 3-4-3, and their pressing has been the feature of their recent improved run of results. They really are forcing their opponents into errors. But I like this sort of market, as Doncaster have effectively been given no chance, but that shouldn't be the case in this league.

The visitors are well capable of keeping clean sheets, and have conceded just three in their last six. I would go with the Under 2.5 Goals bet, but that's a little on the short side for me at 1.794/5. We can play the Double Chance however on Draw or Away at around the 2.89/5 mark.

Still tread carefully with backing Posh

Peterborough United v Rotherham United

Two of the "big guns" go head-to-head for a Saturday cracker at the Weston Homes Stadium, and it's a pity we haven't got this on Sky too. Rotherham are the best team in League One at the moment, and Peterborough - well they often threaten to be.

We opposed Posh as they were rank bad value last weekend at 2.021/1 on the road, so it's a bit more realistic to see them trade at nearly 2/1 for this.

The Blues had gone six without a win prior to Tuesday's home match against Wycombe, but they found their goalscoring boots again and hit Wanderers for four. The result is a little misleading, as Wycombe were reduced to 10-men early, plus their form has plummeted and they are simply not the same team at the moment.

Darren Ferguson ditched the "Posh diamond" in favour of a back three and wing-backs. The game saw them put more crosses into the box from out wide, which is exactly how Rotherham like to play.

Indeed, that old-fashioned pace and power and get to the byline approach from the Millers has yielded a maximum return of 15 points from their last five games.

Last weekend's 3-0 beating of Bristol Rovers had all the hallmarks of the sort of performance manager Paul Warne wants. The front two are scoring, and flying winger Chiedozie Ogbene was unplayable.

I've made the case plenty of times for backing Rotherham on the road, but lately, the markets have wised-up. However, we get the chance to side with them at 2.427/5 for this, and for the team that have scored the most goals on the road (24), those are fair odds.

Duo could cancel each other out at the Mem

Bristol Rovers v Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood's away form is still a problem - it has been all season. With just three victories on the road, it is hindering their chances of turning into a genuine playoff team.

They like to play good football and are one of the passing teams in the division, but that strength is also a weakness, as much like teams worked out how to play Burton's similar style - opponents tend to sit deep against Fleetwood and allow them the ball.

Whether Bristol Rovers are good enough to do that is the key question here.

The Gas haven't won since the 14th December, and they haven't scored a league goal in 2020. In fact, they have drawn seven blanks in their last nine games in all competitions, and they've dropped fast to 15th. At one stage under Graham Coughlan, they were looking playoff contenders.

Joey Barton 2 pre season 1280 .jpg

Town are 1.991/1 for this, which is a pity as it's too short to play the Draw No Bet. I mention that, as they have been drawing too many of late. And whilst Barton likes his attacking, expansive game, Rovers would be happy to take a point from this with the way their league form is going.

The visitors price is just a little on the short side for me - especially odds-on away from home. I think we can have a little dart at the draw outright here at around 3.6013/5. Fleetwood have drawn 2-2 with Shrewsbury and Rotherham recently, but that's a Correct Score I would shy away from given the struggles in front of goal for Rovers.

*Click here to read more betting previews from Ian Lamont for this weekend's League Two fixtures

Alan Dudman's P&L (inclusive ante-post, playoffs and regular season)

2019/20: +4.48
2018/19: +10.51
2017/18: +15.28

*All bets to a 0.5pt stake unless stated otherwise

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