League One Betting: A couple of draws and a big-price Plymouth win
Alan Dudman feels that Plymouth Argyle are a big price to win at Fleetwood on Saturday, while our man also fancies a couple of draws in his League One tipsheet...
"Fleetwood could easily win this, but after two defeats, I have no interest in backing them at [1.88]. Plymouth are decent odds at [4.50], in fact, that is far too big. Their creative players can hurt the hosts here."
Friday night stalemate at the Keepmoat
Doncaster Rovers v Barnsley
Live on Sky Sports
Doncaster's fine home record this season should, in theory, stand them in good stead for Friday night's Sky's televised South Yorkshire Derby. It's no surprise they are pushing at nearly 2/1 though, on the Exchange, because Barnsley are in town.
The "Tykes' factor" here could be an interesting angle with a League One game on a Friday night perhaps pulling in the more casual third tier bettor for the evening. Barnsley would be a pretty obvious pick with a 17-game unbeaten run, so maybe the hosts could drift out to nearer 5/2?
That said; Donny haven't won for five matches and were held 1-1 at Blackpool in midweek. Their high-tempo passing game came back to them at various points, but key players have dipped in form - notably the excellent Young Herbie Kane.
Barnsley are collecting clean sheets for fun at the moment, and they have conceded just two goals in their last eight. They were "long-balled" by Sunderland on Tuesday in a 0-0. That was played in testing conditions, but keeping a shut-out against a team that had previously scored in all of their league matches was an impressive feat.
The price for the visitors is tempting at around [2.30], but I am sticking with the outright back of The Draw, as Donny are capable and have drawn six at the Keepmoat.
Nothing to split these two
Burton Albion v Blackpool
It's a bit of a draw-tastic (does that even qualify for a word?) column for Friday/Saturday, and that's because the end of season is a notoriously tricky time in League One. It's hard enough at the best of times, but Blackpool boss Terry McPhillips summed up most seasons in the division by saying "there is not a lot in it, and everybody is beating everybody". Thanks a lot Terry!
Both of these teams are short on firepower and lack quality in the final third. I wouldn't dissuade anyone from going down the Under 1.5 route either.
Burton played really well at Charlton on Tuesday and dominated the game for large periods with their neat and tidy football, but like so many at this level, the quality to find the net wasn't there. Liam Boyce is their best player and finisher, and he had an off-night.
It was a similar scenario for the Tangerines in midweek, as they controlled the 1-1 with Doncaster Rovers for large parts, but again, that killer pass or touch was bereft.
Blackpool have drawn seven on the road and have scored just 15 goals in 18 matches. They gained a 0-0 at Charlton recently, and we could have something similar for Saturday. The Correct Score 0-0 might be worth a small stakes play, but The Draw gets the verdict again for the outright punt.
Argyle a big price to win at Highbury
Fleetwood Town v Plymouth Argyle
Fleetwood manager Joey Barton reflected on Tuesday night's 2-1 loss at Coventry by saying his team deserved to win. They certainly had the shot count to take the points with over 20 efforts.
I praised Town recently and called them a better team on their travels, since then, they have lost two on the spin at Walsall and the Sky Blues, two matches they probably felt they could, or should have won.
They are in danger now of missing out on the outside chance of a playoff shot. With 49 points, that is looking most unlikely.
Plymouth done the column a favour on Tuesday night with a very late goal to snatch the points in a 2-1 win against Shrewsbury. Finally a last minute goal going for, instead of against us I hear you cry.
Midfield creator Antoni Sarcevic was back in the side for that win following his two-match suspension, and he made a big difference to the Greens' play as they could have been up four or five in the first-half. In fact, they looked a really good side in the opening 45 and any replication of that can trouble the hosts.
Fleetwood could easily win this, but after two defeats, I have no interest in backing them at [1.88]. Plymouth are decent odds at [4.50], in fact, that is far too big. Their creative players can hurt the hosts here.
Back The Draw 0.5pt @ [3.55] in Doncaster v Barnsley
Back The Draw 0.5pt @ [3.55] in Burton v Blackpool
Back Plymouth 0.5pt @ [4.0] to beat Fleetwood