One of Alan Dudman's two winners last weekend was the win bet on Doncaster. However, he's opposing them this Saturday as in-form Coventry travel to Yorkshire...
"Opta highlight that Doncaster have won just once in their last 13 home league matches with Coventry, so we have that on our side with the bet on Robins' team."
Look to oppose form team Donny by backing Sky Blues
Doncaster Rovers v Coventry City
Darren Moore's Doncaster were winners for the column last week - and comfortable ones at that with their 0-2 triumph at Bristol Rovers, and we've got some collateral form on the Gas, as Saturday's opponents Coventry also beat them in midweek with a 3-0 win in the FA Cup.
Donny are playing well and they've won three on the spin with three clean sheets, so it's a brave call to oppose them here, but Coventry are good enough to take a point from this. The market is fairly wise to this too as the visitors are priced at 2.77/4, a touch shorter than the hosts, who are 2.767/4.
Coventry are one of the most pleasing sides to watch when they are on their 'A' game. Even a few changes in midweek prompted boss Mark Robins to label their passing game as "sublime". Aston Villa loanee Callum O'Hare had a starring role, and Robins has a major attacking player to propel City into the automatic places. They currently lie in fourth.
I was also pleased to see the Hummel kit that resembles the 1988 one. One of my Sunday teams played in that and the old Denmark one too. I think I only turned out for them to wear both.
Anyway, City score goals and have failed to find the back of the net in just one match from their last 10. That run includes four at both Tranmere and Wycombe - and that was sweet revenge on Tranmere, who were played off the park in the Sky game earlier in the season and grabbed a shock late goal to win.
Opta highlight that Doncaster have won just once in their last 13 home league matches with Coventry, so we have that on our side with the bet on Robins' team. I was keen to back the 'Yes' in Both Teams To Score, but an initial price of 1.695/7 was a little on the short side. We'll stick with the away win, and hopefully Robins keeps that formation of just one striker - as it seems to be working well.
Posh on a dreadful run and look rank bad value
AFC Wimbledon v Peterborough United
Peterborough manager Darren Ferguson insisted this week that it would be foolish to write off his team's promotion chances. It would have been foolish before Christmas, as Posh were second in the table. However, a wretched run of results has caught the Blues and they've nosedived down to 10th in the table. Their form figures have lost the plot at DLLLLD.
And yet, Ferguson's men are priced up at 2.021/1 and are favourites by a long way for Saturday. It has to be the worst bit of value ever.
Injuries and illness have hit Posh, although it seems Marcus Maddison could finally get his move to the Championship. A longer running saga you will not find. Ferguson has had enough of the speculation it seems, so it will be interesting to see if the diamond formation still works without him. Incoming Sammie Szmodics has some big, if enigmatic shoes to fill.
The visitors are a laying price for sure. Peterborough are normally a good bet for a goal, but they have netted just once in their last five matches. Which is most unlike them.
So what of Wimbledon?
Well, for a start, they are overpriced for a team that have lost only once in their last seven at home. In fact, they have only lost three times at Kingsmeadow all season.
Last time they were a bit naive in not dealing with Portsmouth's switch to a 4-2-4, and they really should have finished off Southend when leading 1-0. Glyn Hodges' side produced a good first half display but they squandered too many chances.
Wimbledon will focus on their assets - ie, getting the ball into good areas and getting balls into the box. Considering Posh were absolutely dire against Gillingham recently, it's worth taking a chance with the Wombles at a decent price.
Millers to pick up their form at home
Rotherham United v Bristol Rovers
Almost unnoticed, Rotherham are now top of League One - ahead of Wycombe on goal difference. I put up Wanderers as a bet for the game against Sunderland citing them as an overpriced runner, but they are another team like Peterborough that have completely lost their way. It may be time to park any bets on the Chairboys for a while. Their strength was the defence and clean sheets, but both are lacking with Gareth Ainsworth's team.
Sunderland are picking up too.
The Millers are favourites in the title Winner market at 3.8514/5, but this all looks fairly nebulous at the moment. There is no denying they are the form team, though.
Saturday's 1-3 success at Oxford was a bit of a statement win. Manager Paul Warne thinks that the U's are one of the best teams in the division, although it was a slightly bizarre build-up to that weekend success, as Rotherham arrived to locked gates and they couldn't get in. Once they did, they unpicked United fairly easily thanks to a brace from Kyle Vassell. He has scored in four in four - and he'd gone 32 matches before that without a goal.
Warne's side are physically very strong. Their best form has been on their travels, but they really ought to have too much for a Rovers team that are struggling to score a goal from open play. That could be a major problem against the hosts - who again defended well in that Oxford success. Indeed, according to Opta, Rotherham have kept four clean sheets in their last six home league matches with the Gas, so we have enough on our side there to play in that market.
I also like the Rotherham to Win To Nil bet, and we'll see what sort of price we can get for Saturday.
Alan Dudman's P&L (inclusive ante-post, playoffs and regular season)
*All bets to a 0.5pt stake unless stated otherwise
Back Coventry to beat Doncaster @ 2.77/4
Back AFC Wimbledon @ 3.711/4 to beat Peterborough
Back Rotherham to Win To Nil @ 2.01/1 v Bristol Rovers