League One Betting: Back the draw specialists on the road this weekend

Gills' boss Steve Evans
Steve Evans has guided Gillingham to a 14-game unbeaten run

Gillingham are going well in League One at the moment, and our third tier expert Alan Dudman thinks it could be worth backing Steve Evans' side for the draw in this Saturday's trip to Sincil Bank...

"Gillingham have drawn plenty on the road, in fact the most in the league with 10, which gives us a couple of options."

Back The Draw @ 3.412/5 Lincoln City v Gillingham

Dons look value again with Tangerines in town

AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool

The Dons have been featuring a few times in the column recently, with the reasoning that they are often overpriced. Unfortunately the same tactic with Burton needs to be shelved following last weekend's heavy defeat. However, we have got a bit more mileage left with the Wombles.

And their price of 3.259/4 looks a bit more appealing in the face of Blackpool's poor value 2.35/4 to 2.47/5.

We'll touch on the Seasiders first, who on away form alone, don't warrant being the shorter of the two. Since they beat Doncaster back in September, the Tangerines haven't won any of their last 11 league away games (losing each of their last five in a row).

Caretaker boss David Dunn is currently at the tiller at Bloomfield Road, but his first game in charge since the sacking of Simon Grayson was unsuccessful with a 2-1 defeat at Bristol Rovers. And whilst they played some neat stuff, that is not a game to go overboard on, as the Pirates were in wretched form before last weekend.

Wimbledon were hammered 5-0 in midweek at Oxford, which explains the decent price no doubt. But it's a result to simply scratch off. Oxford can do that to sides and evidently got their mojo back, whilst the Dons suffered from their exertions and hard work following their 2-2 at league leaders Rotherham last Saturday.

It's that kind of league. Bad result follows good.

Wimbledon's last four matches at home reads WDDL - with the defeat against Fleetwood 1-2. We should still keep them onside for now.

KEY OPTA STAT: At the Cherry Red Records Stadium, Blackpool are winless in their previous two league visits against AFC Wimbledon.

Rovers could struggle for a goal at Stadium Of Light

Sunderland v Bristol Rovers

The League One Winner market is still not totally clear-cut despite Rotherham's place at the top of the betting. Coventry aren't too far behind at 3.7511/4, and neither are Sunderland at 6.611/2. It really is open.

The Black Cats have certainly raised their form levels since Christmas, and a current run of seven wins from their last nine means we won't be presented with any gifts in terms of Sunderland's price to beat Bristol Rovers this weekend at 1.564/7. I'm not sure many will be looking to lay that, and you can click here to find out more about laying on the Betfair Exchange.

Phil Parkinson's side have got their energy back with the high press. They also play to the strengths of target man Charlie Wyke with some quality delivery into the box - and that's something Rovers could struggle to cope with.

I've often said that the Gas struggle to score from open play, and they have only netted twice in their last six away matches.

Certainly the 1.528/15 is a little short to put up, and so is the Sunderland -1 in the Bristol Rovers +1 market at 1.845/6. So I am most tempted to head to the Sunderland 'Yes' in the To Win To Nil market. If we can get around 2.01/1 to 2.1011/10, it's a bet worth taking.

The hosts have conceded just 10 at home all season (in 16 matches), and have kept four successive clean sheets at the Stadium Of Light. Since Boxing Day they have recorded four shutouts, compared to just three prior, which highlights how well drilled they are at the moment.

The Correct Score options should also be considered with 2-0 and 3-0 results to trade.

KEY OPTA STAT: Sunderland have taken more points in 2020 than any other League One side; winning seven of their 10 matches.

Draw looks an appealing bet at Sincil Bank

Lincoln City v Gillingham

Do you believe Gillingham are a genuine playoff team in this division? I'm not so sure despite an excellent unbeaten run of 14 games. The market and I agree, as Gillingham can still be backed at 13.012/1 in the Top 6 Finish market.

And that's not a case of me disbelieving in Steve Evans, who has turned the Kent club around completely from last season, but I feel there are three or four superior teams in and around those positions.

Evans plays a back five and Gillingham are earning a reputation as a somewhat physical side in this division, so Lincoln cannot afford to be as sloppy as they were recently in losing a chaotic 4-3 at Accrington. Their defending was shocking in terms of the individual mistakes, and boss Michael Appleton was left seething.

Michael Appleton pre season 1280 .jpg

Therefore we should expect some sort of gritty response, especially from a side that are simply losing too many matches recently (five in their last six).

Appleton dare not lose another considering their position in 15th, so it could be the sort of game he is happy to take a point from to address a poor run. Gillingham have drawn plenty on the road, in fact the most in the league with 10, which gives us a couple of options. Backing the Draw outright makes some appeal at around 3.412/5, and we could also stick with Evans' side with the Draw No Bet considering they have drawn five of their last seven away.

The Under 2.5 is a little short at 1.715/7, so we know what sort of game the market is expecting.

KEY OPTA STAT: Lincoln are currently winless in their last six games (L5 D1); only Shrewsbury and Tranmere (both 10) are on a longer wait for a win against sides in this division.

*Click here for more Football League previews with Ian Lamont's best bets for League Two


Alan Dudman's P&L (inclusive ante-post, playoffs and regular season)

2019/20: +12.05
2018/19: +10.51
2017/18: +15.28

*All bets to a 0.5pt stake unless stated otherwise

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