Can Leeds do a Lazarus and be promoted despite 15-point deduction?

English Football League / Dan Fitch / 11 September 2007 / 2

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Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch looks at Leeds United's fall from grace and the challenge on Dennis Wise's hands

Sometimes you have to hit rock bottom to win the affection of the public. Leeds United have traditionally been cast as one of the arch villains of English football. Never the flashy, moustache twirling, Alan Rickman-in-Die Hard type of villain, epitomised by Chelsea; Leeds were more your thuggish, cruel, Michael Caine-in-Get Carter type of villain. A team you loved to hate.

But now I sense a change in the air. Yes, of course it was initially funny to see the once mighty Leeds getting relegated from the Championship, especially when managed by the always odious Dennis Wise (a Jim Davidson type of villain). It was at this point though that the joke stopped being funny and became a bit sad. The thought of Leeds rubbing shoulders with the likes of Yeovil or Cheltenham, just didn't sit right. Already in administration, they were then docked 15 points. By now, even cold hearted Manchester United fans were seen dabbing at the corners of their eyes with handkerchiefs.

With the club's very existence at peril, they were matched as high as 70 to be League One champions. But Leeds' predicament seems to have fostered a siege mentality within them. They have won their first five games to win back the stolen points and now their season begins in earnest. Their price has fallen to 7.2 to win the league, whilst they stand as second favourites for promotion at 3.4, having previously been backed at 14. Their form is currently second to none in the division, but with 13 points separating them from top, can Leeds bounce back?

The average point total for the winners of football's third tier, within the last ten years, is 93. Therefore, Leeds would need around 108 points to take the title. This seems unlikely, as the highest total gained in this period was 101 by Fulham in 98/99. Even the lowest points total in this period (Southend's 82) would mean that Leeds would need 97 points. To be champions, Leeds not only have to win the league, but win it playing something akin to the famous old team of the 70s. Only without the blue sock tags.

Even a second place finish would take a huge effort. The average points total for the second placed team is 85, requiring Leeds to reach the 100 points total only broken by Fulham and Wigan in recent years. A more reasonable expectation would be a play off place. The average points total for the sixth placed team is 75, giving Leeds an achievable target of around 90 points. I think that Leeds will make the play offs, though you may wish to wait for Leeds to start dropping some points before backing, as the current promotion price is a little thin.

Leeds' squad includes the experience of Jamie Clapham, David Prutton, Tore Andre Flo and Alan Thompson, though it is their little known strike pairing that have made the biggest impression so far. Jermaine Beckford proved last season that he could score League One goals, during his loan spell at Scunthorpe and has combined well with the Congolese striker Tresor Kandol, who leads the scoring charts with 4 goals. On Friday they face a tough challenge away at Bristol Rovers, but though their winning streak may end, their unbeaten record should not, with Rovers available to lay at 2.98.

Leeds should be a top flight team and probably still would be, were it not for Peter Ridsdale; the Viv Nicholson of football chairmanship. They drew a crowd of 26,877 for the visit of Hartlepool on Saturday. That's a larger attendance than the likes of Bolton, Fulham, Middlesboro and Reading attracted in the last round of Premier League games. Though Leeds United's predicament is entirely self inflicted, those 26,877 loyal fans deserve so much better.

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bigboy | 11 September 2007

Lest we forget, Leeds are also rubbing shoulders with Nottingham Forest. The pair are an apocryphal tale of how £££ signs and mismanagement can ruin a football club
M Khan | 07 October 2007

A word of warning when considering a rising phoenix: since lifting the last pre-Premiership trophy in 1992, there have been many false dawns other than the initially euphoric Yeboah & Brolin on the pitch to the ultimately catastrophic Risdale & Bates off it.