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Southampton v Liverpool: Back the Reds on the road

Claude Puel's Southampton are currently 10th in the Premier League but have lost their last three
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Jurgen Klopp's side head down to the south coast for the first leg of the EFL Cup semi-final against Southampton. Luke Moore takes a look...


"Liverpool are favourites for this, but they look quite a nice odds-against price given Southampton's recent travails. [2.28] is a good return on a team that currently sit 20 points ahead of Wednesday night's opponents in the league."

Southampton v Liverpool
Wednesday, 19:45

Live on Sky Sports


Southampton


Southampton aren't heading into this game in much form at all. Three defeats in a row in the Premier League were followed up with a draw at Championship side Norwich City in the FA Cup, and it's getting on for a month since the Saints last won a game.

They are capable of matching Liverpool, however. Back in November these two duked out a 0-0 draw at St Mary's, making the south coasters one of the few sides to keep Jurgen Klopp's men at bay this season - Plymouth did too of course, but that was a slightly different kettle of (very young) fish.

There's a storm abrewin' at centre back as well for Claude Puel's team - Jose Fonte isn't currently being considered for selection after handing in a transfer request. It remains to be seen how that one plays out, but I think we all know what usually happens...

Sofiane Boufal and Charlie Austin are both injured.


Liverpool

Liverpool hit the headlines last weekend for all the wrong reasons, a weakened side failing to break down League Two Plymouth meant that they face a replay down in Devon in a week or so. Klopp knows there are no replays in this competition, and he'll be desperate to get his hands on some silverware to solidify his good start as Liverpool boss.

As a result he may not play such a weakened side this time around, and there will be senior pros that haven't played for nine days (luxury!), champing at the bit for a piece of the action. If that doesn't worry Southampton, it should.

The Reds ghosted past Stoke on penalties at this stage of the competition last year, and played a strong side in the away leg. It wouldn't be a surprise to see them do the same on Wednesday.


Match Odds

Liverpool are favourites, but they look quite a nice odds-against price given Southampton's recent travails. [2.28] is a good return on a team that currently sit 20 points ahead of Wednesday night's opponents in the league.

Of course, we all saw the Plymouth game, but Klopp is likely to field a far stronger team this time around, and Southampton are going to be without a centre-half whose best performance of the season came against Liverpool in the league back in November, the aforementioned Fonte.

Southampton are currently trading at [3.55], and The Draw is a similarly-priced [3.5].


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Opta tell us that Klopp's men are the highest scorers in this competition (surprise, surprise) and although away goals only count in the EFL Cup after extra time, one can imagine the manager will want his team to go out and and find a goal or two, especially with Southampton in such poor form.

I think Overs is most likely, and the market is being fairly generous - [1.97] is available. I wouldn't put anyone off backing that. It's worth remembering that the Reds haven't failed to score in two games running all season.


To Score

Anything around [2.5] or better on Daniel Sturridge is the call here. He's very likely to play, he is the top scorer in the competition this season and has bagged a couple in his last two appearances.


Recommended Bets

Back Liverpool to win at [2.28]
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.97]
Back Daniel Sturridge to score at [2.5] or better


Luke Moore 2016-17 P/L

Staked: 47pts
Returned: 67.6pts
P/L: +20.6pts

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