Dan Fitch takes a look at Wednesday's EFL Cup matches and thinks that Watford are a big price to defeat a Spurs side they beat just a few weeks ago.
"Watford came back from a goal down to beat Spurs 2-1 at the start of the month."
Gunners can get job done early
Arsenal [1.3] v Brentford [8.5]; The Draw [6.0]
The Gunners have now won the last five games. It's an encouraging trend for Unai Emery, though he will be conscious of the fact that his side have continued to look vulnerable, even in victory, with the clean sheet against Everton at the weekend being Arsenal's first of the season.
Emery picked a strong side in the recent home Europa League against Vorskla and that might give us a clue as to how he will approach this fixture against a Brentford team that are currently seventh in the Championship after a bright start. Back Arsenal to claim a sixth successive victory by winning half-time/full-time at [1.95].
Reds will concede
Liverpool [1.91] v Chelsea [3.75]; The Draw [3.9]
The pick of the third round matches sees the Premier League leaguers Liverpool host third-placed Chelsea. Jurgen Klopp has traditionally rotated heavily in this competition, even against top-flight opposition, so Chelsea could have an advantage if Maurizio Sarri decides to pick something close to his best side, as he did in the Europa League last week.
Without knowing how seriously Sarri will treat this game, just days before the clubs will meet each other in the Premier League, it's probably best to concentrate on the goals markets. Rotation should make Liverpool more vulnerable at the back and both teams to score can be backed at [1.65].
Another blow for Stoke
Nottingham Forest [2.5] v Stoke [2.9]; The Draw [3.4]
Stoke were hot favourites to make a swift return to the Premier League before the season began, but are currently 18th after losing at home to Blackburn at the weekend. Manager Gary Rowett has a very talented squad at his disposal, yet so far they have struggled to reach their potential under the former Derby and Birmingham manager.
Forest are faring better. Ninth in the league, only two points separates them from the play-off positions. They have only lost once this season and knocked Newcastle out of the competition in the last round. Their price is big enough to play it safe by backing them in the Draw No Bet market at [1.8].
No home advantage for Spurs
Tottenham [1.4] v Watford [7.6]; The Draw [5.0]
Spurs are meant to be playing this game at home, but with their new stadium unfinished and Wembley unavailable, they have had to resort to hosting the match at the ground of MK Dons. Home advantage should be minimal then and with Watford having recently beat Tottenham in the Premier League, it's mystifying to see the Hornets available at such a big price.
Watford came back from a goal down to beat Spurs 2-1 at the start of the month. Mauricio Pochettino generally rotates in this competition, which means that Watford have a real chance to progress here if they pick their best team. Back Watford at [3.0] in the Double Chance market.
Hammers will knock out League Two strugglers
West Ham [1.13] v Macclesfield [21.0]; The Draw [9.0]
After a poor start to the season, West Ham are find their form. An away victory at Everton was followed up with a very useful home point against Chelsea at the weekend and now they have a chance to further extend their unbeaten run.
West Ham knocked out Wimbledon in the last round, with Manuel Pellegrini picking a good side with plenty of international experience. They will surely have far too much quality for a Macclesfield side currently rock bottom of League Two. Go for West Ham to win both halves at [2.04].
Dan Fitch 2018/19 Season P/L
Staked: 53.00 pts
Returned: 50.57 pts
P/L: -2.43 pts
Back Arsenal to beat Brentford half-time/full-time at [1.95]
Back both Liverpool and Chelsea to score at [1.65]
Back Nottingham Forest draw no bet against Stoke to [1.8]
Back Watford double chance against Spurs at [3.0]
Back West Ham to win both halves against Macclesfield at [2.04]