The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round Seven

Callum Wilson - Bournemouth
Jasmine is backing Callum Wilson to continue his good scoring run against West Ham
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Dan extended his lead in the Battle last time out, with Joe and Jake locked together in joint second. Here's where the editors' tenners are headed this weekend...

"The underlying numbers suggest that Spurs' struggles this season are deserved, with the 18/19 Champions League runners-up conceding a huge 1.53 xGA per game, while generating just 1.46 xGF per game - a process expected of a mid-table side."

Canaries to clip Eagles' wings

Dan Thomas
Back Norwich/Draw v Crystal Palace @ [2.0]
Saturday, 15:00

I'm taking a bit of a punt on this one as the stats aren't exactly in Norwich's favour - they've lost all three away games, while Palace are unbeaten at home.

But the Eagles have only won one of those three - getting very lucky against Aston Villa - and somehow contrived to throw away two points last time out against 10-man Wolves, so I'm expecting them to be tentative in the early stages at least.

While Norwich were disappointing at Burnley in their last road trip, they have enough attacking prowess to trouble a Palace side who have found creating chances at home difficult for some time now (just two goals this season and 19 for the whole of 2018/19).

Roy Hodgson's men don't look like even money shots to me so I'll back Norwich and the Draw for the same price.

Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£24.20

Both sides to net in another City win

Joe Dyer
Back Man City Win and BTTS-Yes in a Same Game Multi @ 2.51 v Everton
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

*Joe is away

Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: -£9.00

More misery for Spurs


Jake Osgathorpe
Back Southampton or Draw and BTTS in a Same Game Multi @ 4.15 v Tottenham
Saturday, 15:00

My battle bet this week comes from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where I see another difficult game for Spurs and manager Maurico Pochettino.

Tottenham were slightly unfortunate to lose to Leicester last weekend (xG: LEI 1.27 - 1.29 TOT), but there continues to be something missing from this team this season, and after Leicester got the equaliser, there was only one team that was going to go on and win that game.

That was yet another game in which they blew a lead (2-0 up vs Arsenal, 2-0 up vs Olympiakos, 1-0 up against Leicester) which is a huge worry, and Pochettino keeps adding fuel to the fire with his comments and thoughts, saying after their penalty shoot-out defeat to Colchester that he was looking forward to signing new players in January - he seems very twitchy does Poch.

The underlying numbers suggest that Spurs' struggles this season are deserved, with the 18/19 Champions League runners-up conceding a huge 1.53 xGA per game, while generating just 1.46 xGF per game - a process expected of a mid-table side.

Something isn't right at Spurs, and an impressive Southampton side can take advantage, and kick them while they are down.

Saints have been arguably the most unfortunate team in the Premier League so far, as they sit in 13th spot in the table, but have been the 6th best team according to Infogol's expected goals table, with Ralph Hasenhüttl's side offering a strong attacking threat (1.80 xGF per game).

They too have short-comings defensively (1.48 xGA per game), meaning we should be in for an entertaining game here, with both teams scoring, but I'm going to chance the Saints to get something from the game, with them being more than capable of posing a huge threat to a soft Tottenham team.

Combining Southampton or Draw and BTTS in a Same Game Multi pays a lovely 4.15, as I hope to again get a winner by playing against Spurs.

Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: -£9.00

Wilson West Ham record too hard to ignore

Jasmine Baba
Back Callum Wilson to score anytime @ [2.86] in Bournemouth v West Ham
Saturday 15:00

Bournemouth v West Ham is one of those wildly inconsistent fixtures that comes up where you can make the case for any result far too easily. The Cherries have a very good record against their opponents here but have only won two of their last nine at Dean Court. Not only that, but you can't discount West Ham as they are unbeaten in their last five away from home and are on a confidence high after beating Manchester United 2-0 last week.

So the Win-Draw-Win market is not where I'll be having my bet. Instead I've found another record that might be worth backing at the price of [2.86] and that is in the shape of the in-form Bournemouth striker of Callum Wilson to score.

Wilson has four goals in six Premier League games, and while he's behind the likes of Sergio Aguero and Tammy Abraham in the race for the Golden Boot, three of his goals have come in the last three consecutive league games. He's looking to score in his fourth for the first time, and with the record he has against West Ham (six in six games), he might just do it. And at that price, in a fixture that averages 4.25 goals, he should be at the end of at least one.

Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: -£19.90

Another away draw for Burnley

Mike Norman
Back the Draw @ [3.5] in Aston Villa v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00

Click somewhere else now if you're looking for a tactical masterclass as to why this game will finish all-square. I don't have one, I just simply believe Villa and Burnley are very evenly-matched and that the draw is just as likely an outcome as a win for either side.

And given the Draw price is the biggest option in the Match Odds market then it makes sense to back it.

I think Villa are a better team than their league position suggests. They've performed well on the road without getting any reward whatsoever and their home performances against Everton and West Ham show that they're a match for teams expecting to finish in the top half of the table.

The trouble Dean Smith's men will have on Saturday is that they'll face an extremely well organised outfit in Burnley, and one that will be out to avoid defeat first and foremost, thus putting an emphasis on defending. Villa will struggle to break Sean Dyche's men down I feel and I fear this might end up being a low-scoring drab affair.

The Clarets have been decent on the road. They performed well in a narrow defeat to Arsenal before drawing away to Brighton and Wolves thanks to stoppage-time goals (one for, one against), and my gut feeling is that's how this game will end up.

I really can't split the two teams in this match-up, and as I always say in such games, backing the draw isn't sitting on the fence, it's the logical call.

Mike Norman 2019-20 P/L: -£36.80


For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.

And for more tips and insight on the weekend action, watch the latest Football...Only Bettor podcast, as host Caroline Barker is joined by Kevin Hatchard, Andy Brassell and Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe to discuss all the best betting angles.

The Editors' 2019/20 P/L:

1. Dan Thomas +£24.20
2. Joe Dyer -£9.00
2. Jake Osgathorpe -£9.00
4. Jasmine Baba -£19.90
5. Mike Norman -£36.80


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