The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 25

Steve Bruce - Newcastle
Brucey bonus? Mike likes Newcastle's price to beat Norwich this weekend

The editors return refreshed after a much needed break over FA Cup weekend with Jake and Joe continuing to hunt down Dan in the lead. Here's where their tenners are headed...

Entertainment at the Vitality

Dan Thomas
Back Both Teams to Score/Over 2.5 Goals double in Bournemouth v Aston Villa at 1.981/1
Saturday, 15:00

Bournemouth picked up a much-needed win last time out, beating Brighton 3-1, and they will be desperate to build on that when fellow relegation strugglers Aston Villa come to the south coast on Saturday.

I expect Eddie Howe's men to have a go at a Villa side who are the only team in the Premier League without an away clean sheet this season, which could lead to an open game, given that the Midlanders know they'll probably need to score to get anything out of the game.

The visitors will be in confident mood after reaching the Carabao Cup final in midweek and they look a decent price to pick up the three points at 3.613/5 but given they are the worst defensive side in the Premier League according to xG (thanks Jake), I'll play it safer and back goals using Same Game Multi.

Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£67.60

Back-to-back home defeats for United

Jake Osgathorpe
Back Wolves @ 3.613/5 to beat Manchester United
Saturday, 17:30

On the raw xG numbers, Manchester United were unfortunate to lose to Burnley having created the better of the chances (xG: MUN 1.57 - 0.81 BUR), but they generated only 0.72 xGF after going 2-0 down, with their best chance having a 17% chance of being scored. It was a poor display, and I am not getting carried away with their two cups wins since that game.

United have been poor for some time now, and have shown a capability to just roll over in matches (Watford, Arsenal and Burnley), as they are not the team they used to be. Their squad is worst than last year, with players not being replaced, which means they are light on the ground in terms of numbers, and this will be their fourth game in 10 days so they will be shattered.

Wolves are a better team than Manchester United, and have better individuals in my opinion, especially in attacking areas.

On the face of it, Nuno's side are also a team out of form having lost three and won one of their last five, but they have 'won the xG battle' in four of those, including against Liverpool last time out in which they were unfortunate to lose.

In fact, Wolves have 'won the xG battle' in 10 of their last 11 league games, which is why they sit fourth in Infogol's xG table and boast a very strong process (1.73 xGF, 1.31 xGA per game), so performances have been much better than results suggest of late.

I expect another really strong performance from a rested Wolves team here, and they just look too big at 3.6, so I'm taking them at a big price to get another away win.

Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: +£24.70

Seagulls can deliver Moyes a Hammer blow

MoyesBetfair.jpg

Joe Dyer
Back Brighton @ 2.962/1 to beat West Ham
Saturday, 15:00

Joe is away.

Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: +£14.50

Magpies look a big price to beat Canaries

Mike Norman
Back Newcastle @ 2.3211/8 to beat Norwich
Saturday, 15:00

I was very surprised to see Newcastle trading at 2.3211/8 to beat rock-bottom Norwich and felt compelled to compare that price to how other teams traded at home to the Canaries.

The most surprising price I found was that both Brighton and Bournemouth were 1.748/11 at home to Norwich. Newcastle are 2.3211/8!

The reason for my astonishment is not only the fact that Newcastle are - on league standings at least - a better team than Bournemouth, but also the fact that the Magpies sit seventh in the Premier League home table (Bournemouth 17th). The likes of Chelsea, Man Utd, Man City, Southampton and Wolves have all visited St James' Park this season and all were either defeated or failed to win.

True, Newcastle have been very unlucky with injuries of late, and that's perhaps one reason why they appear to be such a generous price, but they are starting to get players fit now and I simply have to back them at these odds against the worst away team in the Premier League.

Mike Norman 2019-20 P/L: -£6.10

Blades can cut through Selhurst Park

Jasmine Baba
Back Sheffield United @ 2.6413/8 to beat Crystal Palace

Don't be fooled by Sheffield United's recent form. They may have won only one game of their last five, drawn one other and lost the other three but their opponents outside of that single victory have been Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal and...City again. But there's still hope to be had with the newly promoted side. They're still eighth in the Premier League table, one point behind Manchester United, Tottenham and Wolves and a game against Crystal Palace, who have struggled for goals could put them back on the right track.

Roy Hodgson's side have had trouble scoring goals, and at Selhurst Park they're averaging 0.83 goals per game. That paired with the fact that the Blades' defence is the best after runaway leaders Liverpool, and Palace's problems will only become more apparent.

But this will be an edgy one. United aren't one for scoring too many goals either; they have neither scored nor conceded more than twice in any of their 12 Premier League away games this season (F12 A12), however I've been more impressed by Chris Wilder's side than the hosts, and think they have enough to edge this match to get them winning again. I'll back them at 2.6413/8.

Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: -£27.00

The Editors' 2019/20 P/L:

1. Dan Thomas +£67.60
2. Jake Osgathorpe +£24.70
3. Joe Dyer +£14.50
4. Mike Norman -£6.10
5. Jasmine Baba -£27.00

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