The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 24

Daniel Farke - Norwich
Joe expects Daniel Farke's Norwich to keep things tight at Spurs

Weekend winners for Jake, Joe and Mike means the editors are more tightly bunched than ever and it's a quick return for action for the full midweek programme. Here's where their tenners are headed...

"But where the attack is misfiring the defence seems to be getting in some sort of shape and the clean sheet at Watford came on the back of four games where the opposition scored a solitary goal."

Back under 2.5 goals in Spurs v Norwich @ 2.68/5

Seagulls to ratchet up pressure on Eddie Howe

Dan Thomas
Back Brighton to beat Bournemouth at 2.568/5
Tuesday, 19:30

It was admittedly a cracking 'save', but Steve Cook deliberately handling the ball in the box with an hour left on the clock and the VAR cameras rolling said a lot about Bournemouth's muddled thinking right now. The Cherries are in a rut and can't get out of it.

Eddie Howe is, for the first time in his two stints at Bournemouth, under serious pressure after a run of eight defeats in ten, with no goals scored in the last four.

He hasn't been helped by Callum Wilson's form falling off a cliff - the forward's shot on target at Norwich at the weekend was, incredibly his first since October - while the defending hasn't been much better, as evidenced by the 3-0 reverse last time out at the Vitality.

Brighton aren't exactly in hot form but they've been decent on the road in recent weeks, unlucky not to pick up points at Everton and Spurs, while drawing at Palace and beating Arsenal.

Graham Potter's men ran out comfortable 2-0 winners when these two met over Christmas and bigger than 6/4 for the Seagulls to complete the league double looks like the standout bet from the midweek fixtures.

Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£77.60

Hornets to pull clear of drop zone

Jake Osgathorpe
Back Watford to beat Aston Villa at 2.588/5
Tuesday, 19:30

A huge clash in the relegation battle at Villa Park, as Aston Villa take on an in-form Watford.

Villa picked up what could prove to be a crucial point away at Brighton last time out, though they yet again allowed good chances, as their defensive issues remain.

Dean Smith's side rank as the worst defensive team in the league according to expected goals, allowing an average of 2.33 xGA per game, and that is the sole reason they are struggling, and why they have lost six of their last nine - with their two wins in that time both fortunate according to xG.

Watford's charge shows no sign of stopping, as they went toe-to-toe with Tottenham at the weekend, and they actually won the xG battle, so a point was the least they deserved (xG: WAT 2.47 - 1.86 TOT).

They are unbeaten in six now, having won four of those, including a demolition job at Bournemouth in their last away game, with Villa a similar caliber of opponent to the Cherries.

Since Nigel Pearson's appointment, Watford have a very impressive process (1.92 xGF, 1.41 xGA per game), and one of his four victories came via a 3-0 thrashing of Villa at Vicarage Road (xG: WAT 3.64 - 0.75 AST), so I see no reason why this game won't be any different.

I expect Watford to assert their dominance on Villa once again, and they are nicely priced at 2.588/5 to get the win here.

Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: +£34.70

Spurs and Norwich to deliver a stinker

Joe Dyer
Back under 2.5 goals in Spurs v Norwich @ 2.68/5
Wednesday, 19:30

Tottenham just aren't ticking under Jose Mourinho and given the team's struggles in front of goal I'm really surprised to see unders at such a short price for the visit of Norwich this weekend.

Yes, the reverse fixture finished 2-2 and the Canaries are not the most solid team in the top-flight but they have shown but backbone of late and Spurs just cannot get the ball over the line (10.4mm away against Watford admittedly!).

But where the attack is misfiring the defence seems to be getting in some sort of shape and the clean sheet at Watford came on the back of four games where the opposition scored a solitary goal.

With Norwich fighting for their Premier League lives, Spurs misfiring and playing at home in front of an angsty crowd I think this one has the hallmarks of a tight game, and I fancy unders could be the value at around 2.68/5.

Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: +£24.50

Not much excitement at Stamford Bridge

Mike Norman
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.3411/8 in Chelsea v Arsenal
Tuesday, 20:15

Chelsea are only ninth in the Premier League 'Home' table and have scored just 14 goals in front of their own fans this season, while Arsenal are also sitting ninth in the 'Away' table and have scored just 12 goals on their travels this term.

Both Chelsea's home games and Arsenal's away games average under 2.5 goals per match, yet that option is quite a big outsider here at 2.3411/8 as opposed to 1.758/11 about over 2.5 goals.

But this is the stat that I find incredible. Ignoring the meeting between these two teams a few weeks ago, not one of Arsenal's last six games have gone over the 2.5 goals mark and just of Chelsea's last seven have gone that way - a 3-0 win over Burnley last week. That means that from the last 13 combined games played for these two teams, just one of them has gone over 2.5 goals.

If you want to throw in the meeting between these two teams three weeks ago - which ended 2-1 thanks to two goals from the 83rd minute onwards - then just three of the last 15 combined games Chelsea and Arsenal have played have witnessed at least three goals.

At 2.3411/8, it's a no brainer backing Under 2.5 Goals on current form.

Mike Norman 2019-20 P/L: +£3.90

Blades to get a point at least

Jasmine Baba
Back Sheffield United double chance v Manchester City @ 3.3512/5
Tuesday, 19:30

Chris Wilder claps 1280.jpg

Jasmine is away.

Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: -£17.00

The Editors' 2019/20 P/L:

1. Dan Thomas +£77.60
2. Jake Osgathorpe +£34.70
3. Joe Dyer +£24.50
4. Mike Norman +£3.90
5. Jasmine Baba -£17.00

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