The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 21

Man City striker Sergio Aguero
Joe see goals for both when Man City host Everton

It's been a good Christmas for Jake and Jasmine who are now well into the black as they hunt down long-term leader Dan. Here's where the editors' tenners are headed on New Year's Day...

"Put simply then, all the recent trends suggest we'll see goals in this encounter, and backing Over 3.5 Goals at 2.915/8 is my first bet of 2020. Happy New Year to you all."

Blues to continue fine away day form

Dan Thomas
Back Chelsea to beat Brighton at 2.0421/20
New Year's Day, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

I'm starting 2020 bright and early with a selection from the first Premier League game of the year where I'm surprised to see Chelsea priced bigger than evens to overcome Brighton.

The layers are obviously taking into account the Blues' shaky home form - where they've been beaten by the likes of West Ham and Bournemouth - but Frank Lampard's men are a different proposition on the road, winning seven of the last nine, including impressive victories at Spurs and Arsenal over Christmas.

And this is a fixture Chelsea enjoy; Opta tell us they've won all nine of their league meetings with Brighton - the best such 100% record in English football league history.

While Graham Potter has undoubtedly added a new dimension to Brighton's game, they continue to struggle against the big boys, winning just one of their 17 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four of the table.

Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£67.60

United to condemn Arteta to another defeat

Jake Osgathorpes
Back Manchester United @ 2.68/5 to beat Arsenal
New Year's Day, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Arsenal blew a 1-0 lead over Chelsea with less than 10 minutes to play at the weekend, conceding twice in quick succession to lose 2-1, meaning Mikel Arteta is still searching for his first win as Arsenal manager.

The defeat to Chelsea was fully deserved according to expected goals, as Arsenal once again struggled to create big scoring chances (xG: ARS 0.80 - 1.60 CHE), with their attacking numbers this season extremely disappointing, averaging just 1.49 xGF per game and creating just 23 non-penalty big chances - the fewest of any of last season's top eight.

Arteta's side are light on the ground in defence, which is the last thing they need given their poor defensive process (1.58 xGA per game), but the attacking issues are of serious concern.

Manchester United are in good form coming into this game, having won four of their last six league games following a comfortable and deserved win over Burnley last time out (xG: BUR 0.41 - 2.17 MUN).

That win means they sit fifth entering the New Year, just four points behind fourth placed Chelsea, and fifth is where they deserve to be according to expected goals, and they look to be hitting their stride, having averaged 1.74 xGF in their last six league games.

I feel as though this is a bad match-up for Arsenal, as although both teams are in transition from a long-serving manager (still), United are much further down the road than Arsenal in terms of getting back to former glories. Back the visitors to add to Arsenal's woes at a decent price.

Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: +£41.70

Spurs to prevail in entertaining clash

Harry Kane fist pump 1280.jpg

Jasmine Baba
Back Tottenham to beat Southampton and both teams to score at 11/4
New Year's Day, 15:00
Live on BT Sport

*Jas is away.

Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: +£13.00

Another exciting win for Pep's men

Joe Dyer
Back Man City to beat Everton and both teams to score double @ 2.447/5
New Year's Day, 17:30
Live on BT Sport

For my final wager of 2019 I return to a bet that has served me well so far during the battle - City to win but also concede.

The reigning Premier League champions are some way off the pace in their title defence, but nevertheless represent one of the more reliable outfits in the top-flight. They win more often than not, but the clean sheets aren't as common as they once were.

Striker Sergio Aguero has returned to fitness and behind him is a frightening amount of firepower. Goals look as good as guaranteed for the home side.

So really, the bet comes down to Everton but the Toffees showed plenty of offensive intent against Newcastle last time out and new manager Carlo Ancelotti appears to have breathed new life into the Merseyside club.

I can see in-form Dominic Calvert-Lewin threatening the home side and with Richarlison and Gylfi Sigurdsson also in the side they bring a little threat of their own to the encounter.

Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: +£9.50

Expect goals galore at St Mary's

Mike Norman
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.915/8 in Southampton v Tottenham
New Year's Day, 15:00
Live on BT Sport

If this game doesn't contain goals then we should all give up trying to predict football games for good.

The facts are that Tottenham have kept just once clean sheet in the 10 games that Jose Mourinho has been in charge. And that was on home soil (a 5-0 win over Burnley). Away from home Spurs have conceded an average of exactly two goals per game under their new boss (10 goals conceded in five games).

On the flip side of that Spurs are always good for goals and only Liverpool, Leicester and Man City have scored more than the Lilywhites this term. And we all know where those three clubs sit in the Premier League table.

As for Southampton, well they are in the best form they've been in all season, and they've only failed to find the back of the net once in their last 11 matches, so you'd think that they are a decent bet to get on the scoresheet once or twice at least against leaky Spurs.

But the Saints can't defend either. They haven't kept a clean sheet at St Mary's all season (10 games played) and have conceded an average of exactly 2.5 goals per game in front of their own fans this term.

Put simply then, all the recent trends suggest we'll see goals in this encounter, and backing Over 3.5 Goals at 2.915/8 is my first bet of 2020. Happy New Year to you all.

Mike Norman 2019-20 P/L: -£1.60

The Editors' 2019/20 P/L:

1. Dan Thomas +£67.60
2. Jake Osgathorpe +£41.70
3. Jasmine Baba +£13.00
4. Joe Dyer +£9.50
5. Mike Norman -£1.60

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