The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 14

Jamie Vardy
Jamie Vardy is on a roll and Jasmine is backing that to continue with a handsome win on Sunday afternoon

There was just one winner for the column last week which took Joe into second place but everyone is still miles off Dan, the runaway leader. Here's where the team's tenners will be deployed this week...

"Eddie Howe's men are in really poor form, winning just one of their last eight, losing to Burton in the EFL Cup, Newcastle and Wolves in the Premier League, and even failing to beat struggling West Ham, Norwich and Watford."

Mike Norman: Back 'Any Other Home Win' @ 5.04/1 in Tottenham v Bournemouth

Blues to pile on woe for Pellegrini

Dan Thomas
Back Chelsea to beat West Ham and both teams to score @ 2.486/4
Saturday, 15:00

With London clubs falling over themselves to sack their managers in recent days, Manuel Pellegrini will be nervously looking over his shoulder after presiding over a horrendous run of form at West Ham: just two points from their last seven games.

It's unlikely to get any easier when the east Londoners head to the other end of the District Line on Saturday to take on a Chelsea side looking for their fourth home league win on the bounce.

After a slow start to the season at Stamford Bridge, Frank Lampard's men have found their feet on home turf and should have far too much for a West Ham side who meekly rolled over for Jose Mourinho's Spurs last time out in what is supposed to be their biggest game of the season.

But with a home win trading at just over 1.330/100 I'll take the risk on the Hammers finding the net in defeat to boost the price to around 6/4. They managed to notch two against both Tottenham and Newcastle despite playing badly and Chelsea may be a little leggy after their end-to-end battle with Valencia in midweek.

Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£84.20

Early KO can supply goals for both sides

Joe Dyer
Back both teams to score in Newcastle v Manchester City @ 2.166/5
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

I don't like taking on the league's best but I am going to (sort of) do just that with this week's battle bet.

While I am not going to wade in on the mega odds about a Newcastle win over Manchester City - big price players can get 18.017/1 about a home win in Saturday's early KO - I do think the hosts are good for a goal. Both teams to score backers can get bets on at 2.166/5 here and that will do for me.

We can rely on the visitors scoring - they've done so in every single away match this season after all - the problem is the home side, but there is encouragement enough to oppose Ederson and co keeping a clean sheet.

FPL Goalkeepers Ederson.jpg

Newcastle are not big scorers wherever they play but they had showed a bit of bite in a nice run before being blanked at Villa on Monday night.

They will be roared on by a passionate crowd at St James' Park here and will be up against a City side that is not at its best and still without defensive lynchpin, Aymeric Laporte.

Pep's defensive experiments without the Frenchman have not been overly convincing and I think the odds-against BTTS price make this one worth backing.

Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: +£17.90

Mourinho's good start to continue

Mike Norman
Back 'Any Other Home Win' @ 5.04/1 in Tottenham v Bournemouth
Saturday, 15:00

It's been an almost perfect start for Jose Mourinho as the new Tottenham boss, overseeing two wins from two games, seeing seven goals scored, and watching Serge Aurier score a belter.

If Mourinho knows anything about Tottenham's head-to-head record against Bournemouth, and the current form of the Cherries - and I'm certain he does - then I dare say he couldn't have hand-picked a better opponent for his first home league game in charge of the Lilywhites.

Eddie Howe's men are in really poor form, winning just one of their last eight, losing to Burton in the EFL Cup, Newcastle and Wolves in the Premier League, and even failing to beat struggling West Ham, Norwich and Watford.

What's more, the Cherries have a dire record against Spurs. Since being promoted to the Premier League four seasons ago Howe's men have lost six times to Tottenham, and five of those defeats were by scorelines of 5-1, 3-0, 4-0, 4-1 and 5-0.

We can back Spurs to win by scoring at least four goals at 5.04/1 on Saturday, and that simply looks too big to me.

Mike Norman 2019-20 P/L: +£2.80

A tale of two teams

Jasmine Baba
Back Leicester -1 and Jamie Vardy to score anytime @ 3.64 (around 13/5 - Same Game Multi)
Sunday, 16:30

Back to simplicity for this week's bet. I'm going to start off by saying, I think at 4/6, Leicester are far too big to beat Everton in the match winner market.

The Toffees have been one of the talking points of the week, with Marco Silva under real pressure after the home defeat to Norwich last time out. And you can see why. Despite the money Everton have put into the club during the summer transfer window, they sit a lowly 16th place and only four points off the drop zone.

Their away form against good teams are terrible too; they are winless in their last 32 away league games against sides starting the day in the top four (D10 L22).

And of course, they're not facing any old side on Sunday. Leicester have excelled this season and show no signs of slowing down. They're currently second in the league, a point ahead defending champions Manchester City, two in front of Chelsea and behind leaders Liverpool by eight points. They're also unbeaten at the King Power Stadium so far this season (W5-D1), scoring 14 and only conceding three.

While 4/6 is actually a very fair price and a must for any accas, I'll be bumping it by going for Leicester -1 on the handicap and backing the in-form Jamie Vardy to score anytime at around 13/5 on the Betfair Sportsbok Same Game Multi.

Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: -£1.20

Burnley on a roll

Jake Osgathorpe
Back Burnley to beat Crystal Palace @ 2.38
Saturday, 15:00

Burnley are purring. They are playing extremely well at the moment and have swatted both West Ham and Watford aside in recent weeks by a 3-0 scoreline.

They rank as the seventh best team in the league on xG this season, and here are a few stats that will blow your mind; only Manchester City and Chelsea have created more non-penalty big chances than Burnley this season, and only Leicester have conceded fewer.

*Gasps*

So this is a really strong team. As for Palace, they are trending in the opposite direction to Burnley.

Roy Hodgson's side were rightly beaten by Liverpool last weekend, and they come into this game ranked as the fourth worst team in the Premier League on xG this season.

They rank as the second worst attacking team in the league on xGF per game (1.11), and are dead last when it comes to non-penalty big chances created (35% or greater), creating just 8 in 13 games.

Defensively, things don't get any better, allowing 1.86 xGA per game and conceding the second most non-pen big chances this season.

Taking all of this into account, I genuinely can't believe that Burnley are as big as 2.38 to win this one, as for me, that represents a huge amount of value.

Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: -£7.10

The Editors' 2019/20 P/L:

1. Dan Thomas +£84.20
2. Joe Dyer +£17.90
3. Mike Norman +£2.80
4. Jasmine Baba -£1.20
5. Jake Osgathorpe -£7.10

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