The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 10

Jamie Vardy - Leicester
It's...Jamie Vardy. Jasmine is backing the Leicester man to find the net

A 7/2 winner at Old Trafford saw Dan stretch his lead last week but Mike continues to chase well, landing his third on the bounce, while Jake moved off the bottom. Here's where the editors' tenners are headed...

"In 12 Premier and Champions League games this season City have scored an incredible 39 goals, though uncharacteristically they've conceded 10 times, meaning those dozen games have witnessed over four goals per game on average."

Reds to win entertaining clash with Spurs

Dan Thomas
Back Liverpool to beat Tottenham and both teams to score at 9/5
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

We have a repeat of the Champions League final at Anfield on Sunday but it's safe to say these two teams have gone in different directions since that balmy night in Madrid.

Liverpool dropped their first points of the season at Old Trafford last weekend, but remain six points clear of Man City, while Tottenham were scraping a home draw against bottom side Watford and sit on 12 points alongside the likes of Sheffield United.

The Reds did the double over Spurs last season and actually look a touch big at 1.564/7 on the Exchange to beat a side whose away form has been utterly wretched, with no wins on the road since January.

But we don't go for those prices in this column and I'll boost it to 9/5 by adding both to teams to score. Tottenham netted in both those defeats last season and knocked in a confidence boosting five against (an admittedly awful) Red Star Belgrade during the week. Harry Kane and Son Heung-min may just get a bit of change out of the Reds backline.

Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£75.20

Goals galore at the Etihad... we hope

Mike Norman
Back Over 4.5 Goals @ 2.427/5 in Man City v Aston Villa
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport

After three Battle winners on the bounce I'm feeling a tad confident, that's despite me falling even further behind Dan in the standings who has landed some jammy bets in the last few weeks. Actually, I'll take that back given he's my boss! Superb picks, Dan.

Last week every man, woman and dog expected goals in the Bournemouth v Norwich clash. It finished 0-0. But the belief that there'd be goals in that one was largely based on a meeting between two teams with leaky defences. City and Villa also have less than convincing defences on the evidence of the season so far, but going forward one team is world class, the other is not afraid to give it a go and has been among the goals recently.

In 12 Premier and Champions League games this season City have scored an incredible 39 goals, though uncharacteristically they've conceded 10 times, meaning those dozen games have witnessed over four goals per game on average.

Villa meanwhile started the season with a 3-1 defeat at Spurs, won 6-1 away from home in the EFL Cup, and their last five matches have finished with five, four, four, six and three goals being scored. As well as scoring at Tottenham Dean Smith's men have scored two at Arsenal, three at Brighton and five at Norwich. Their last five away matches have witnessed 23 goals, just shy of five per match on average.

On the above evidence then, Over 4.5 Goals doesn't look a bad price at 2.427/5 to give me my fourth consecutive Battle winner. If you're wondering, the 0-0 Correct Score in this game can be backed at 65.064/1!

Mike Norman 2019-20 P/L: +£23.40

Saints and Foxes to deliver goals

Joe Dyer
Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.9620/21 in Southampton v Leicester
Friday, 20:00

Joe is away.

Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: -£13.90

Another dull United game

Jake Osgathorpe
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.305/4 in Norwich vs Manchester United
Sunday, 16:30

A huge game at Carrow Road on Sunday, as both Norwich and Manchester United (separated by 3 points), are in desperate need of a Premier League win.

Norwich come into this game on the back of their first clean sheet of the season last weekend against Bournemouth, and produced a much-improved defensive display as a consequence of playing more conservatively.

However, they failed to create chances, as they had no balance in the team, switching from all-out attack and no defending, to all-out defending and no attacking (xG: BOU 0.79 - 0.40 NOR).

It will be interesting to see if Daniel Farke sticks with this gameplan against one of the 'big six'. After its success last weekend - and the numerous defensive injuries they have - it could be the way forward for a Norwich team that were fun to watch but extremely vulnerable earlier in the season.

Manchester United were defensively resolute against Liverpool last weekend, and boast the best defensive process in the Premier League after nine games, allowing an average of just 0.96 xGA per game, so there is a positive for United fans.

Now for the negative.

They rank as one of the worst attacking teams in the Premier League.

Ole Gunnar Solskjær's side create on average just 1.12 non-penalty xGF per game, and have struggled to open teams up, with quite a few of their 'big' chances coming from set-pieces.

If United are to get a win here it is unlikely to be a demolition job, and, given their defensive process, I'm not expecting them to concede many chances to Norwich at Carrow Road.

All of this points to another low-scoring game involving Manchester United, and I will take the 2.30 about Under 2.5 goals landing again, especially as 11 of United's 13 games in all competitions this season have seen Under 2.5 come in.

Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: -£17.60

Vardy party on Friday night

Jasmine Baba
Back Jamie Vardy to score @ 2.265/4 in Southampton v Leicester
Friday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Oh no, I've fallen behind. It has been a terrible run for me, I shouldn't have backed a Same Game Multi so early when Liverpool took on Leicester, and then was let down by West Ham last time out in their defeat against Everton. But fear not, there's a man who won't let us down in Jamie Vardy.

Now actually, Vardy was the part of the Same Game Multi that did let us down, but that was at Anfield so I can let that go. Aside from that, he's under his best goal scoring average under Brendan Rodgers (113 minutes per goal) compared to any other permanent manager he's played for and not only that, Southampton are leaky in defence especially at St Mary's.

The Saints are winless in six Premier League home games, drawing one and losing the other three they've faced this season and on top of that they've only kept one clean sheet in the last 18. With six goals in the league so far, Vardy should be licking his lips to add to his tally and to keep Leicester, I can't believe I'm saying this again, in the Top Four.

Back him to score anytime at 2.265/4.

Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: -£21.30


***

For more tips and insight on the weekend action, check out this week's episode of Football...Only Bettor

The Editors' 2019/20 P/L:

1. Dan Thomas +£75.20
2. Mike Norman +£23.40
3. Joe Dyer -£13.90
4. Jake Osgathorpe -£17.60
5. Jasmine Baba -£21.30

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