Back 0-0 half-time correct score in Crystal Palace v Watford at 2.89/5
I got stung backing a goalless first half when Manchester United hosted Stoke a few weeks' back but I'm prepared to dive in again on Saturday when Watford travel to Palace, given the compelling nature of their respective records.
Opta tell us that the Hornets (7) and the Eagles (9) have conceded the fewest goals in the first half of Premier League games this season. Alan Pardew's men have been all square at half-time in nine of their 13 home games, with Watford drawing the first period in six of their 12 away trips.
With one point from the last five for Palace and no goals in four of the last five for Quique Flores' men, avoiding defeat will be top of mind for both and I'm happy to back another cagey start in this game.
Dan Thomas 2015-16 P/L: -£14.90
Back West Ham to beat Norwich @ 3.1511/5
One team is chasing Europe, the other is battling relegation. One team has won five away games in the Premier League, the other has lost its last five top-flight fixtures.
I just can't see why West Ham (3.1511/5) are such outsiders to inflict another defeat on struggling Norwich (2.56/4) this weekend.
Yes, the London side were involved in 120 minutes of FA Cup football this week. Happily, that was on Tuesday and they should have enough rest time to be ready for this away game. And with a Top Six place theirs to lose I expect West Ham to go hard for the win at Carrow Road.
Norwich have hit a bad run of form to drop into the bottom three and while their home form hasn't been terrible, just four wins from 12 league games do not inspire confidence.
At the prices I just have to take a chance on West Ham to record another away win.
Joe Dyer 2015-16 P/L: -£19.90
Back Stoke @ 4.03/1 to beat Bournemouth
A couple of months ago - when Stoke were keeping clean sheets for fun away form home and challenging the top six places - the Potters would have been favourites for this game so I can't let odds of 4.03/1 go un-backed.
True, Mark Hughes' men are now in poor form and I have to admit that three consecutive 3-0 defeats is a worry, but they've faced some decent sides in that time and it's just possible that they lost focus after that demoralising penalty shoot-out defeat in the Capital One Cup semi-final.
Stoke's team just looks too good to remain in poor form and I'm sure they'll have been working extremely hard to put matters right given that Jack Butland spoke publicly about words needing to be had.
At first glance it looks like Bournemouth are in decent form, but their recent victories over Palace and Norwich came against two teams bang out of form, and the Cherries also failed to beat struggling Sunderland at the same time. They've won just one of their last four on home soil and if Stoke can get back something like the away form they were in before Christmas then they'll go close to winning this.
Mike Norman 2015-16 P/L: -£29.20
Back Half Time Draw in Aston Villa v Liverpool at 2.35/4
Live on Sky Sports 1
Liverpool have been in indifferent form of late, and there is a feeling that the Jurgen Klopp project is going to have to start in earnest this summer. One win in their last six Premier League encounters doesn't make for particularly inspiring reading for the Reds, and although Aston Villa are still rooted to the foot of the table, their form at home has picked up recently.
The key stat to this bet though is Liverpool's half time record in the top flight this season. No fewer than 18 of their 25 league games have been all-square at the break, which is the most in the division. I actually had this bet for the Sunderland game last weekend, and that landed too.
At 2.35/4, it's well worth a punt and I'm hoping it delivers me my third winner in four selections.
Luke Moore 2015-16 P/L: -£37.70
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