The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2014/15: Round 13

Mark Hughes will be scheming another big upset and Luke fancies his chances of doing so at a big price

All four editors are going to the Saturday 3pms in search of profit, read on to see where the tenners are being deployed...

"I can't ignore Stoke at this price, and I think Mark Hughes relishes surgically placing flies in other teams' footballing ointment."

Luke Moore: Back Stoke to beat Liverpool at 5.59/2

Mike Norman
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.412/5 in QPR v Leicester
Saturday, 15:00

I've had no joy at all with my last three Battle bets, all of which came in the Match Odds market. So I'm reverting back to my tried and tested 'Goals' markets for the time being at least, though I'm still a little out of my comfort zone this week.

That's because I like to look for games where I can see plenty of goals being scored and therefore able to take a punt in the Over 3.5 Goals and Correct Score (by backing Any Unquoted) markets. But I'm struggling to find such a game this weekend, so will take a chance on Under 1.5 Goals at Loftus Road instead.

Admittedly QPR have scored plenty of goals in front of their own fans, but in recent games against Liverpool and Man City they weren't expected to win and the pressure will have been off. Saturday's game against Leicester will be very different.

For starters it's a game that neither side will want to lose and I can see an emphasis on defending more than any other part of the game. QPR have just one win in nine to their name and are bottom of the table, while for Leicester it's no wins in seven in which they've failed to score a single goal in six of those outings.

I'm expecting an extremely cagey affair here and believe the goalless draw to be a massive player, but realising that a sending off, a moment of magic, a freak own goal can often bring any game to life I'll play it a little safer by backing no more than one goal to be scored.

Mike Norman 2014-15 P/L: +£2.40

Joe Dyer
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.466/4 in Manchester United v Hull 
Saturday, 15:00 

Leicester and Sunderland served up the expected but much-needed draw last weekend to give me a boost up the table and my goal this week is to jump back into profit. 

While the King Power stalemate was a nicely-priced yet somewhat obvious selection (for me anyway) this week's route to a winner is based on a price simply being 'wrong'. 

We're used to the Under/Over 2.5 line hovering around the even money mark so I'm naturally drawn when either option trades nearer 2.56/4, the assumption being that the opposite is a sure thing

The game in question is Manchester United v Hull on Saturday afternoon where you can back Under 2.5 at 2.466/4

United are clearly capable of scoring heavily but they haven't hit more than two goals in a Premier League match in their last seven outings. Prior to last weekend's 2-1 defeat of Arsenal (where their second was a breakaway scored in the 85th minute) they'd found the back of the net twice in three games. 

Hull, too, have lost their scoring touch in recent weeks. A six game run in September and October saw them score twice in six successive league and cup games, but it's just one in their last four since a 2-2 draw at The Emirates. 

The concern is that neither defence has kept a huge number of clean sheets but United are clearly improving at the back and City haven't been conceding heavily in recent matches either. I think all of that makes the Unders price far too big and that'll be my bet this week.

Joe Dyer 2014-15 P/L -£9.10

Luke Moore
Back Stoke to beat Liverpool at 5.59/2
Saturday, 15:00

A solid win for me last week as Newcastle (narrowly) did the business for me against a woeful Queens Park Rangers, and I think with a few more well thought out bets I'll back on an even keel against three other tipsters that, let's be honest, aren't showing much!

I started this entry intending to back Overs in this game at a decent price of 1.9420/21, but I've changed my mind and decided to back Stoke to win at Anfield on Saturday. 5.59/2 for a team whose showpiece results have all come away from home this season, against a side that are under huge pressure and lacking in confidence, can't stop conceding, have lost at home to Aston Villa already this term...the list just goes on and on.

I can't ignore this price, and I think Mark Hughes relishes surgically placing flies in other teams' footballing ointment. He'll be saying exactly what Neil Warnock said to his charges last weekend - get in Liverpool's collective faces, turn the crowd, put Brendan Rodgers under more pressure etc. Put simply, I don't think Liverpool's manager knows what his best XI is, he's lost his way and I can see the Reds floundering again on Saturday. The price is simply to good to ignore.

Luke Moore 2014-15 P/L: -£24.30

Dan Thomas
Back the Draw in West Ham v Newcastle at 3.613/5
Saturday, 15:00

I'm beginning to think I'm cursed. Sergio Aguero on absolute fire all season - I back him to score against West Ham and he misses a load of sitters. Southampton one of the most solid teams in Europe - I back them against toothless Villa and Fraser Forster loses the plot and lets a soft one in. Cue violins.

So I need a decent priced winner to get me back on track and it's to the Boleyn for my bet, where fifth plays sixth in an intriguing match-up.

Newcastle have won a scarcely believable six in a row, including famous wins at White Hart Lane and the Etihad, and a price of 3.7511/4 on the away victory certainly has some appeal, but this season's West Ham are a resilient bunch and I can see the two teams cancelling each other out. A result, I suspect, both managers might take if offered before the game.

The Hammers are without a win in three, but they were unlucky to lose 2-1 at Everton last week and would have beaten Villa in their last home outing were it not for some Brad Guzan heroics, so their form doesn't concern me - especially if they get some of their key players back from injury. 

Dan Thomas 2014-15 P/L: -£42.70

A £10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.

Editors 2014/15 Season P/L

1. Mike Norman: +£2.40
2. Joe Dyer: -£9.10
3. Luke Moore: -£24.30
4. Dan Thomas: -£42.70

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