Back Aston Villa @ 2.56/4 to beat Hull
My fellow Betting Battlers will probably be sending for the men in white coats to pick me up once they realise I've plumped for Aston Villa in this week's pivotal round.
But let me explain myself. *Mike pauses*
Was that a decent enough explanation? I thought not!
Let me be serious for one minute. I've labelled - and stick by it - Villa as the most inconsistent team in the Premier League this season, so by that token alone surely they're due a win after taking just one point from the last 18 available.
But what sways me here is the fact that Villa have a fantastic record against Hull. The Tigers haven't scored a single goal against Saturday's opponents in their last eight meetings; Villa have won four and lost none of their last five Premier League meetings. Everything is stacked in Paul Lambert's side's favour.
One win will secure Villa's Premier League status, Hull have virtually nothing to play for - so everything considered I have a huge hunch that the home team will get across the line on Saturday.
Now if you'll excuse me, there's an elderly man donning glasses, and a long white coat, knocking at my door.
Mike Norman 2013-14 P/L: + £12.40
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9520/21 in Swansea v Southampton
I temporarily lost my senses with last week's bet - Newcastle being the least trustworthy team in the Premier League at the moment - but I feel on firmer ground this time round.
Swansea and Southampton are two of the more entertaining teams in the top-flight and at a little under even money ([1.95) I'm happy to chance my penultimate tenner on the pair producing over 2.5 goals.
Swansea's 33 goals scored at the Liberty Stadium makes them the sixth most dangerous home team in the Premier League. Meanwhile, eighth-placed Saints' 21 road goals is better than every team below them and the equal of Tottenham above.
The equation then is pretty simple - mix Swans and Saints and enjoy the goals.
Of course it's never quite that simple, teams with nothing to play for can produce soporific contests and the visitors have gone off the boil a touch since Jay Rodriguez suffered his unfortunate knee injury.
But Swansea's 52 goals conceded tells its own story and though keeper Michel Vorm improves Swansea considerably, Southampton should be able to find the back of the net - if Newcastle and Villa can do it, Saints can do it.
Joe Dyer 2013-14 P/L: - £6.00
Back Man City/Man City in the HT/FT market v Everton at 2.789/5
Live on Sky Sports 1
Everton put me in on the back foot in the Battle by handing Southampton two goals on a plate last weekend, but fortunately I didn't lose ground on messrs Norman and Dyer so it's all to play for.
Sticking with a Toffees game this weekend, but opposing them instead of backing them, with Man City in town for what is probably going to be the pivotal game in the title race.
With midfield general Yaya Toure and number one striker Sergio Aguero both back in the ranks, it's easy to see why the Betfair market has City as favourites to win at 1.784/5 but those sort of skinny odds aren't helping me at this stage of the season so it's the HT/FT market to add a bit of juice to the price.
Opta tell us that six of Man City's last seven Premier League goals have come before half-time and I expect them to come out of the blocks quickly against an Everton team who may be missing key defenders again, with doubts over Sylvain Distin, Leighton Baines and Phil Jagielka.
Barring some shock results for Arsenal, top four is pretty much out of reach for Roberto Martinez's side now and I expect a fired up City to get their noses in front early and secure the three points to put the pressure on Liverpool ahead of their trip to Palace on Monday.
Dan Thomas 2013-14 P/L: - £12.11
Back West Ham to beat Spurs at 4.47/2
Arsenal (and Newcastle for that matter) duly obliged for me on Monday night with a big winner, but I still need to target decent priced bets if I'm going to have an impact on this competition before the end of the season.
It's for that reason that I've decided to plump for West Ham against Spurs at Upton Park on Saturday. True, West Ham are on a bad run, but they've done well against the north Londoners so far this season, and there's nothing Sam Allardyce likes more than a high-profile scalp.
What's more, Spurs are in no way reliable under Tim Sherwood and I wouldn't touch them away from home at odds-on with a barge pole. Their away record is decent overall, but that's largely historical (they've only won once away since the beginning of February) and they aren't in good form on the road presently.
4.47/2 is a good value bet. Here's hoping it gets me back in touch with the others going into the final week of the season.
Luke Moore 2013-14 P/L: - £94.30
A £10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.