The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2013/14: Round 37

Can Wojcech keep it tight and do Joe Dyer a favour?
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Everton's win over Manchester United wasn't just bad news for David Moyes, it was also a result that both Joe Dyer and Dan Thomas could have done without after it helped Mike Norman move over £18 clear in this season's Betting Battle. Here are this week's crucial selections...

"Tim Krul returned to first team action two games ago and the Toon instantly recovered some defensive strength. A similar thing happened to Arsenal following Laurent Koscielny’s return, with one goal conceded in their last two matches and I think we could be in for a closer encounter than the odds suggest."

Joe Dyer: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.568/5 in Arsenal v Newcastle


Mike Norman
Back Liverpool HT/Liverpool FT @ 2.8415/8 v Chelsea
Sunday, 14:05
Live on Sky Sports 1

The facts are that for Chelsea to win the title they need to win at Anfield on Sunday, then, because of their inferior goal differene, hope that Liverpool lose to either Crystal Palace or Newcastle (or manage just two draws), and then pray that Man City don't take at least 10 points from their remaining four games.

I know, and more crucially so does Jose Mourinho, that the Blues are not going to win the title this season.

That means that there is absolutely no need for Mourinho to field a full strength side on Sunday afternoon. Why should he? The Champions League is far more important for Chelsea now and they surely must do everything in their power to ensure that they are as much prepared as possible for their semi-final second leg tie against Atletico Madrid.

So I strongly fancy Liverpool to win this game, even if Mourinho fields a stronger side than first hinted, but the price of 2.26/5 is well gone (the Reds are now just 1.684/6 to win). Instead then I'll go for Liverpool to lead at half-time before going on to record a victory - after all, Brendan Rodgers' men have scored first half goals in their last 378 matches now.

Come on you Reds!

Mike Norman 2013-14 P/L: + £22.40


Joe Dyer
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.568/5 in Arsenal v Newcastle
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1 
 

I clearly didn't strike last week's under 2.5 goals bet on Chelsea-Sunderland knowing that Petr Cech was going to miss the game. With the big man in nets I was confident the Blues would have been able to ride out Sunderland's challenge but less so with Mark Schwarzer in the no.23 shirt. 

Anyway, the milk has been spilt and the tears shed so let's move on and try to catch that cheeky wee scamp Mikey Norman at the top of the leaderboard. 

Arsenal-Newcastle has home banker written all over it - the Geordies are on a miserable run of form while the Gunners, bolstered by returning wounded, have put away West Ham and Hull on successive weekends. 

But while I'm confident we'll see a home win I'm not convinced it'll be a trouncing, and I fancy a goal or two will decide matters for Arsene Wenger's side. Tim Krul returned to first team action two games ago and the Toon instantly recovered some defensive strength. A similar thing happened to Arsenal following Laurent Koscielny's return, with one goal conceded in their last two matches and I think we could be in for a closer encounter than the odds suggest. 

I also think there is far less likely that there'll be over 2.5 goals than odds of 1.584/7 suggest and I'll take a chance on unders at a value price of 2.568/5.

Now, if you'll excuse me I'm off to pray that Wojciech Szczesny doesn't suffer any last-minute injuries. 

Joe Dyer 2013-14 P/L: + £4.00


Dan Thomas
Back Everton to beat Southampton at 2.68/5
Saturday, 15:00

Backing Everton to beat Palace in the HT/FT market in my 'game in hand' the other week put me on the back foot for the Battle run-in but I'm happy to give the Toffess another chance this weekend as I look to rein Mike's lead in.

Southampton have had a decent season but it looks like they are en route to the beach, if not quite on the sun loungers yet, losing 1-0 at home to Cardiff a fortnight ago and then stumbling to a goalless draw at Villa last week. 

That Palace defeat was the only blemish for Everton in their last nine games and they come in to the game in buoyant mood having despatched Manchester United - and David Moyes - last weekend.

Given Arsenal's easy (on paper) run-in, Roberto Martinez's men can't afford any more slip-ups if they want that Champions League slot and I think their extra motivation should get them across the line at St Mary's.

Dan Thomas 2013-14 P/L: - £2.11


Luke Moore
Back 3-0 in Arsenal v Newcastle at 9.417/2
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1
 

Fulham couldn't do the business for me at White Hart Lane last weekend, but I'm still sticking with my strategy of big-priced fancies to try and end the season on a positive note.

Arsenal are pretty strong at home; no-one has conceded less goals than them and they've only lost once, on the first day of the season to Aston Villa, a result that seems like a long time ago.

Newcastle, on the other hand, are really poor and have finished this season with a whimper. It's now five defeats on the bounce for them in a run of games that has seen them score just one goal. 

I can't see them troubling Arsenal in any way on Monday night, and so an easy 3-0 win at a good price is my selection.

Luke Moore 2013-14 P/L: - £178.30


A £10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.


Season P/L

1. Mike Norman: + £22.40
2. Joe Dyer: + £4.00
3. Dan Thomas: - £2.11
4. Luke Moore: - £178.30

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