The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2013/14: Round 32

Can Pepe Mel inspire his team to a second win in a row?

No change to the standings last week as all four editors lost their bets. Can Joe Dyer or Dan Thomas usurp Mike Norman at the top of the table and can Luke Moore pick up a much needed big priced winner? Here are this week's selections...

"Liverpool are on fire, they're scoring for fun (averaged exactly three goals scored per game in their last five away matches), and they've now scored in the first half of a game in 19 consecutive league outings."

Back Liverpool HT/Liverpool FT @ 2.0421/20 v Cardiff

Mike Norman
Back Liverpool HT/Liverpool FT @ 2.0421/20 v Cardiff
Saturday, 15:00

All was going well last Saturday when Everton and Cardiff were locked together at 0-0 midway through the second half and Under 2.5 Goals was trading at long odds-on. Then the Toffees scored, then the Bluebirds equalised, and then - as the referee was filling up his lungs ready to blow the final whistle - Seamus Coleman hit the worst shot of his life only for the ball to find the back of the net. Cruel!

After a few days of therapy I'm now over that painful loss and this week I'm backing Liverpool to lead at half-time and win at full-time at a very appealing 2.0421/20.

My reasoning is simple. Liverpool are on fire, they're scoring for fun (averaged exactly three goals scored per game in their last five away matches), and they've now scored in the first half of a game in 19 consecutive league outings.

True, Cardiff are fighting hard, but I just can't get Liverpool's breathtaking display at Old Trafford out of my head. If the Reds go to Wales and play anywhere near like they did last Sunday then this will be the easiest winner I've backed all season.

Mike Norman 2013-14 P/L: + £0.60

Joe Dyer
Back Under 1.5 goals @ 3.39/4 in Newcastle v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00

The reasoning behind this week's bet feels too simplistic to be true but sometimes it's best not to overcomplicate matters - neither Newcastle or Crystal Palace are banging them in and their game should be low on goals. 

Whether it will be lower than 1.5 is doubtful but that is reflected in the price - 3.35 - and that will be my wager this weekend.

Having just slid into betting arrears again, it's a risky play but I struggled to convince myself about other bets including under 3.5 at the Etihad and over 2.5 at White Hart Lane, so it's a low-scoring game at St James' Park for me. 

Two Opta stats back up that opinion, one for each team. Let's start with the home side - Newcastle United have failed to score in eight of their last 11 Barclays Premier League games and have netted just one goal from their last five at St James Park. As for the visitors, Palace have netted just six goals in their last 14 away matches in the top-flight, with just one in the last five.

So, at better than 2-1 I'm happy(ish) to risk this week's tenner that those trends continue for another week. 

Joe Dyer 2013-14 P/L: - £1.50

Dan Thomas
Back West Brom to beat Hull at 3.8514/5
Saturday, 15:00

I'm in the dreaded red after Spurs and Arsenal served up a scrappy 1-0 instead of the goalfest I had hoped for, so I'm moving away from the tried and tested overs/unders this weekend in search of a bigger priced winner and backing the Baggies.

Betting on a team with one win in 11 away from home to pick up maximum points on their travels doesn't seem like the most sensible punt on the face of it, but that's why we're getting a good price - and the win in question, against Swansea, was last time out.

That victory suggests Pepe Mel might finally be getting his message across and I think they're a great price to build on it by getting three points at struggling Hull. 

Opta tell us that Steve Bruce's men have won none of their last five Premier League home games (W0 D1 L4) and have scored just two goals in that run. Add that to the stat which shows West Brom have won three and drawn one of their last four away games against Hull and the 3.8514/5 begins to look very attractive.

Dan Thomas 2013-14 P/L: - £3.01

Luke Moore
Back Manchester City to beat Fulham 3-0 at 8.07/1
Saturday, 15:00

I came pretty close to my face-saving correct score bet at Goodison Park last week; Everton did indeed win and also scored two goals. Unfortunately they conceded a comedy goal to the hapless Cardiff and the game finished 2-1 and not 2-0.

Still, onwards and upwards, and I still need a big win to get myself back in contention with the other editors so I'll give another correct score a go at a chunky price. 

Man City should easily dispatch Fulham, despite the Cottagers' much-needed win last weekend, and what's more I don't think Felix Magath's men will trouble the scorers even though Vincent Kompany will be missing through suspension.

This fixture last year was 2-0 and the year before was 3-0 and that to me looks around the best prediction for what will happen this time around. The 3-0 win at 8.07/1 seems like as reasonable a correct score bet as you'll find this weekend. 

Luke Moore 2013-14 P/L: - £128.30

A £10 bet is placed on each selection on Betfair's Exchange. Profits are calculated before commission.

Season P/L

1. Mike Norman: + £0.60
2. Joe Dyer: - £1.50
3. Dan Thomas: - £3.01
4. Luke Moore: - £128.30

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