Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9620/21 in Swansea v Everton
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Swansea have three games to save their Premier League status and it looks like nothing less than a defeat of Everton will do this weekend.
Sat in 18th, nearest rivals Hull have a two point advantage and are just 1.51/2 to beat the league's worst side, Sunderland, at the KCom earlier in the day. That result that would leave the Swans five adrift.
The problem is that the Swans face a dangerous opponent, with 60 goals in 35 top-flight fixtures and boast the division's top scorer in their ranks.
There's every chance that Everton will score at the Liberty Stadium which will leave Swansea needing two at least, and I can't help but think the 1.9620/21 on overs just looks too big.
Joe Dyer 2016-17 P/L: +£47.70
Back Bournemouth @ 2.265/4 to beat Stoke
I'm using a favourite tactic of mine this week; the one where I form an opinion on the outcome of a match purely based on the form of one team, regardless of the side they are about to face.
That team is Stoke, and given their horrendous recent away form they simply have to be opposed on the road until they turn that form around.
Mark Hughes' men have failed to score a single goal in each of their last six away games; they've collected just a single point in that time from a possible 18, and their last three away games were defeats to bottom-side clubs Swansea, Burnley, and Leicester.
Stoke's overall form is pretty woeful too. They've won just one of their last eight Premier League games, that coming at home to relegation-threatened Hull. I backed the Potters last week, but they simply weren't at the races in a dull goalless draw with West Ham and it appears that they've simply given up for the season.
Hughes' men travel to Bournemouth on Saturday, but as I say, this selection is purely based on the form of Stoke. However it does add more confidence when you consider that the Cherries are up to 10th in the table following back-to-back wins, and they have won three of their last four on home soil, their only defeat coming against league leaders Chelsea.
Mike Norman 2016-17 P/L: +£35.70
Back Draw/Under 2.5 Goals in Arsenal v Manchester United at 10/3
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Traditionally one of the biggest matches of the season, this particular vintage pitches up two teams both struggling to make the top four and it doesn't have the feel of a classic about it.
Jose Mourinho has hinted that he may rest a few players so he can focus on the Europa League, and the market has reacted, with United available at a chunky looking 4.03/1 at the time of writing and Arsenal at just over evens.
But Mourinho isn't exactly reliable with his statements - and should the Gunners, so meek in defeat at White Hart Lane last weekend, be strong favourites?
Despite prioritising the clash with Celta Vigo, United won't want to lose their long unbeaten run in north London and a draw looks nicely priced to me. With neither side in prolific goalscoring form, I'll boost the price by adding unders, meaning I have 0-0 and 1-1 onside.
Dan Thomas 2016-17 P/L: +£8.40
Back Hull to beat Sunderland 2-0 at 7.06/1
After coming so close to a big winner these past two weeks, I'm sticking with the correct score bets to try and get me back into contention.
Sunderland are dreadful and are deservedly relegated. The thought of them mustering themselves for a big effort away at Hull, one of the best home sides in the bottom half, is a fanciful one. Marco Silva and his Tigers have been pretty imperious on their own patch since he took over and I rate them as a better team than the Black Cats anyway, and that's without taking into account Hull's position of trying to fight for their Premier League status.
I'm running out of chances to get this right and I really need to throw that betting cat among the pigeons. I can see this being a standard-issue, routine 2-0 win. Fingers crossed it is. At 6/1, it'll be just the tonic.
Luke Moore 2016-17 P/L: -£72.30
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