Back Man United @ 2.186/5 to beat Liverpool
I'll probably regret not going for a low-scoring game here given Liverpool's recent run of live TV matches. Just off the top of my head, in recent months the Reds have seen games finish 0-0 (v Man Utd), 0-0 (Plymouth), 1-0 (Man City), 0-1 (Everton) and 1-0 (Southampton).
The significant aspect of those results is that they're all cup ties or crunch Premier League games, so given that Liverpool travel to Old Trafford on Sunday another dull low-scoring affair is very likely.
But my hunch is simply to go for the home win. Liverpool have dropped off massively in recent weeks, and even though it's only a mini blip I don't want to touch them on the back of their dreadful performance at Southampton in the EFL Cup.
The defeat at St Mary's followed a hugely disappointing 2-2 draw at Sunderland in the league and a 0-0 stalemate with League Two outfit Plymouth in the FA Cup. Sadio Mane is also away on AFCON duty and his absence is a huge miss.
United on the other hand are flying. Jose Mourinho's men have won nine on the spin in all competitions, the last three without conceding, so confidence must be sky high at Old Trafford. The Red Devils will be at full strength and I just fancy that with the momentum they've got at the moment they can record a vital win over their arch rivals.
Mike Norman 2016-17 P/L: +£69.90
Back Burnley to beat Southampton @ 3.65
Burnley look must-bet material in this home fixture against Claude Puel's fading Southampton.
The market has the home side as 3.613/5 outsiders with Saints at 2.285/4 to pick up the three points but I think the betting should be way closer than that.
As I wrote in my Premier League relegation update, Burnley are a force at Turf Moor where they have won seven of 11 in the league, and their top-flight survival looks likely to hinge on keeping that form going. Meanwhile, Saints's two wins and three draws from 10 away fixtures is no more than average.
Puel's team are clearly very capable on their day, having picked up some notable wins this season, but recent results have been poor and they are shorn of a few key performers. Charlie Austin and Sofiane Boufal are injured, while key defender Jose Fonte is out in the cold.
The home side will come into the fixture the more rested of the two sides after Southampton played 90 minutes of League Cup semi-final action on Wednesday, and manager Sean Dyche will be desperate to keep their fine home form going. Given their strong record at Turf Moor, there's little reason to bet against them.
Joe Dyer 2016-17 P/L: -£13.85
Back Middlesbrough to beat Watford at 3.259/4
This is clearly a risky bet given Boro's difficulty in finding the net but Watford have been in terrible nick of late and I fancy that Aitor Karanka's men have enough in the locker to pick up maximum points on Saturday.
The Teessiders come off the back of a confident 3-0 win in the FA Cup, while they were unlucky to only pick up a point from the games against Leicester and Man Utd, having been the better team against the Foxes and the victims of a late turnaround at Old Trafford.
Watford may have beaten Burton Albion in the Cup at the weekend, but it was four defeats in five prior to that game and they are beset by injury concerns - with 11 players either out or doubtful for this game.
One suspects this won't be a classic, but I'm happy to take Boro at a decent price.
Dan Thomas 2016-17 P/L: -£82.50
Back Draw or Away in Double Chance market in Spurs v West Brom at 3.8514/5
Live on Sky Sports 1
I know at first glance this looks like a case of 'desperate times call for desperate measures' given my P/L, but this is (hopefully) a shrewder bet than just throwing a dart at something with a biggish price.
West Brom's record against Spurs is actually a very good one - Opta tell us that the north Londoners have only won once in their last seven games against the Baggies, and overall have won just four of 10 home games against them.
What's more though, I think there's something of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' about this game too - the Chelsea win was such a high, it wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility for Tottenham's concentration and performance to be a little bit below par here against something of a bogey team. And remember, for all Spurs' great home record this season, there's a long way to go yet and they were on the end of some pretty poor results on their own patch last term - Newcastle, Leicester and Southampton all beat them in front of their own fans.
Maybe Tony Pulis can do me a favour here. I'm hoping the baseball-capped one can spoil this party at a good price.
Luke Moore 2016-17 P/L: -£85.80
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