Brighton to come unstuck away once again
Back Burnley to win v Brighton at 2.285/4
Brighton have enjoyed a tremendous season but it's safe to say that the vast majority of that success has come at the Amex. In fact, the Seagulls are winless in ten away games and rank as the joint-second worst team in the league on the road behind Swansea. Moreover, they've scored the same amount of away goals (nine) as bottom of the league West Brom and have relied on their sturdy back four to carry them through games - conceding just 22 all season.
Burnley meanwhile haven't entirely covered themselves in glory at home and have conceded in their last eight at Turf Moor but I'm struggling to envisage Brighton breaching their defenses. Sean Dyche's side will be keen to keep up their pursuit of Arsenal in sixth and their record against teams outside of the top six at home has been excellent, having lost just once.
You'll likely have to stay up late to catch the highlights of this on MOTD but the 2.285/4 on offer for a Burnley victory is well worth taking advantage of.
Adam Baylis 2017-18 P/L: +£151.55
An entertaining affair at Selhurst
Back BTTS in both halves in Crystal Palace v Leicester at 11/1 (Sportsbook)
Palace may have let me down on the goals front last time out but I reckon that Watford game was an anomaly and I'm expecting yet another entertaining affair in SE25 when Leicester come to town on Saturday.
There have been 13 goals in the last three at Selhurst, while Leicester's last four away trips have produced 14, so you can see why Over 2.5 Goals is an odds-on chance.
But with Adam nailing some huge winners in recent weeks, I need a chunky price and I've opted for both teams to score in both halves.
Opta tell us that BTTS has landed in a league-high 22 games this season for Leicester. More pertinently for my bet, the Eagles have shipped more first-half goals than anyone else this season (28), while only the current top six have scored more in the opening 45 than Claude Puel's men (23).
Dan Thomas 2017-18 P/L: +£96.25
Swans can avoid defeat against Blues
Back Swansea win/draw @ 2.89/5 v Chelsea
Swansea are quietly effective at home and may be a little overpriced to get something from Saturday evening's meeting with Chelsea.
Carlos Carvalhal's team are unbeaten in five Premier League fixtures at the Liberty, winning four, beating Arsenal and Liverpool in that sequence. And they come into this game sat in 17th, they may be four points clear of Southampton below them but the need to pick up points is clear.
Opponents Chelsea are back on the winning trail thanks to defeats of Southampton and Burnley, and Saints again in the FA Cup, but it's not a sequence of results to justify favouritism at a little over 1.51/2.
Wrapping up the draw with an upset win for the Swans pays at 2.89/5 and that'll do for me.
Joe Dyer 2017-18 P/L: +£55.75
Cherries look ripe for a south coast upset
Back Bournemouth @ 5.59/2 to beat Southampton
I'm amazed that Southampton are trading at [1.73 to win this game. As the Match Odds suggest - even if I don't agree with them - the Saints are the most likely winners of this match but I can't help feeling that their price to win is more based on their desperate need for three points rather than actual form.
And that actual form tells us that Mark Hughes' men are now on a run of eight Premier Leagues without a win, and that they haven't won on home soil for nine league games. In fact the Saints have been one of the worst home teams in the division for 12 months now; they've won just three of their last 21 such matches at St Mary's. A quite dire record you'll agree.
Bournemouth aren't exactly brilliant on the road admittedly, but they've lost just two of their last seven away trips, and a few months back they went to Stamford Bridge and beat Chelsea 3-0.
But for me this selection is more price-based, and the fact that Southampton have been so poor at home recently. And above all, I need a decent-price winner to cut into Adam's lead in the Battle standings. The Cherries at 5.59/2 are well worth picking this week.
Mike Norman 2017-18 P/L: +£47.40
Arsenal a value price for away win
Back Arsenal @ 9.08/1 v Manchester United
Harry is away
Harry Phillips 2017-18 P/L: -£59.70
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