Back Spurs to beat West Brom and Under 2.5 goals @ 21/10
It's been a long time coming but West Brom finally bid farewell to Tony Pulis at the beginning of this week and his assistant Gary Megson has been left to steer the ship for their visit to Wembley. This is obviously a difficult game at an even more difficult time for the Baggies but the travelling fans should show plenty of support for the man that guided them to Premier League promotion in 2004.
Megson's set up will likely be similar to Pulis' give or take a few tweaks so expect a large portion of 'park the bus' with a side of 'long ball to Rondon'. As for Spurs, the spine of their team will - as ever - be incredibly hard to break down and it's hard to envisage one of Alli, Eriksen or Kane not finding their way past the Baggies rear-guard within the 90 minutes.
Given that Pochettino's men have only netted more than once on one occasion at home this season - their Wembley woes have been well-documented - I don't expect a cricket score on Saturday so Under 2.5 with a Spurs win is how I'll be playing it.
Adam Baylis 2017-18 P/L: +£101.55
Back Bournemouth to beat Swansea at 2.8415/8
Eddie Howe's men have found their feet in recent weeks. Three wins on the spin against mid/lower table teams has seen them climb out of the relegation zone and up the table to 13th.
They travel to a Swansea team who are in the doldrums and have lost five on the spin, with Paul Clement's position coming under some pressure. They are now into 1.491/2 for relegation on the Exchange and rank very low done on Expected Goals data (sorry Jeff). The Swans midfield seems incapable of creating chances for the promising Tammy Abraham and they have scored the second fewest goals of any team in the league.
The Cherries on the other hand have dispelled early season worries about a lack of goals and, with Callum Wilson fit again, look capable of finishing chances. This will likely be a tight game with a huge amount riding on it but I fancy the in-form visitors to come out on top.
Harry Phillips 2017-18 P/L: +£35.50
Back Everton @ 5.04/1 to beat Southampton
Apologies for repeating the stats, but it's now just two wins in 13 home games for Southampton, those victories coming by just a single-goal margin against the clubs currently 17th and 18th in the table, West Brom and West Ham respectively.
And an even more damning stat for the home faithful is that the Saints have failed to find the back of the net in 10 of those last 13 home games. Yet once again, and quite incredibly, they are trading at an odds-on price to win at St Mary's on Saturday.
Everton are the opponents, and I understand that there isn't much in the Toffees' form to strongly recommend them this weekend, but this wager is purely based on how poor Southampton are on home soil, and if, and it's a big if admittedly, the Merseyside club can perform the way we all know they can and should, then an away win at 5.04/1 makes plenty of appeal.
Mike Norman 2017-18 P/L: +£6.00
Back Leicester to beat West Ham @ 17/10
I'm not a big fan of backing away teams but I will make an exception for Leicester under the Friday night lights in east London.
Time will tell if opponents West Ham are genuinely having a crisis or if this is just a bad start that they will put right given time.
But I'm prepared to take a chance on the pain continuing for this gameweek at least with a back of the visitors at 17/10 on the Sportsbook.
Like the Hammers, Leicester have sacked a manager this season and, while three games isn't a huge sample, it's been bright enough under Claude Puel so far. The Frenchman's reign started with an easy win over Everton, came within 17 minutes of a victory at Stoke and continued with predictable defeat against Manchester City last weekend.
The Foxes losses this season have come against Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool, and they tend to hold their own against the lesser sides in the top-flight.
The Hammers' fans are in revolt, they have a spate of injuries affecting key players and are bedding in under a new manager.
Given all that, I am happy to support the visitors at a decent price.
Joe Dyer 2017-18 P/L: -£20.85
Back Watford to beat Newcastle at 3.613/5
The Exchange Premier League prices are very rarely 'wrong' but it strikes me that Watford are being consistently underrated this season, despite some sterling performances.
While the Hornets have admittedly lost their last two road trips, they did more than enough to pick up points in both games (Chelsea & Everton) and their overall away record is excellent - they sit fifth in the 'away league table'.
They face a Newcastle side who have lost three on the bounce since scraping past Crystal Palace, including a hugely disappointing home reverse to Bournemouth last time out.
Better than 5/2 on Marco Silva's men to make that four defeats in a row looks like excellent value to me.
Dan Thomas 2017-18 P/L: -£51.25
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