The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2018/19: Round 15
Dan Thomas is on a roll, and for the second week running he was the only battler to have a winner. Can he continue the run in the midweek round of fixtures and will the others get back to winning ways?
"I've not seen Arsenal win, in the Premier League, at Old Trafford since September 2006. If the Gunners were on a good run and Manchester United on a bad run, it wouldn't matter, it would always go against the grain of logic."
Jasmine Baba: Back Man Utd to beat Arsenal @ [2.56]
Let's go for another City stroll
Back Man City Any Other Away Win @ [4.2] v Watford
I'm starting to wonder if I'm just jinxed when it comes to Manchester City. Every time I back them to win comfortably they don't. When I think they'll take their foot off the gas and win by a single goal or two they score five or six.
So I'm happy to wager that they'll get at least four at Watford on Tuesday night simply because I think they'll win the game comfortably, and if I back them to win two or three nil then they'd be sure to score more. Daft logic I know, but a poor run of form does that to you.
The Citizens won 5-0 at Cardiff earlier this season, and they won 4-0 at West Ham in their last away game, but then we all know that this City side, on their day, are capable of producing scorelines like that against anyone, home or away.
So I'm more than happy to be able to back Pep's men to win by scoring at least four tonight at odds of [4.2], not least because their last two visits to Vicarage Round resulted in them winning 0-6 and 0-5. They can win by scoring one less tonight if they like, I'm not too fussed.
Mike Norman 2017-18 P/L: +£28.50
Goals and a West Ham win very likely
Back West Ham Win/Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.54] v Cardiff
I don't enter round 15 of the battle with much confidence - five straight losers will do that to a man - but also the shape of the week. It's an absolute brain burner of a round and I was scrambling around for a half-decent bet.
Anyway, that's my excuse out of the way, on to the bet.
West Ham's season hasn't gone according to plan so far but Saturday's 3-0 away win at Newcastle was a good sign that it's picking up and they have a golden chance to extend the winning run when they entertain Cardiff on Tuesday night.
Neil Warnock's side are battling hard and capable of pulling off a shock result for sure but their road record is shocking - one draw, five defeats from six fixtures - so a West Ham win is the rightful favourite.
Let's combine it with overs though to squeeze a little more juice into the price. That option is [2.54] on the Exchange right now, and that'll do for me this week.
Joe Dyer 2017-18 P/L: +£13.10
Old omen Trafford
Back Man Utd to beat Arsenal @ [2.56]
Let me start off by saying, I'm an Arsenal fan. This is no easy judgement to make or say out loud, but if you've watched the Premier League as long as I have, you can tell where I'm going with this.
I've not seen Arsenal win, in the Premier League, at Old Trafford since September 2006. If the Gunners were on a good run and Manchester United on a bad run, it wouldn't matter, it would always go against the grain of logic. Right now the visitors are unbeaten in 19 games in all competitions and their rivals without a win in three league games, the run - on both sides - has to end some time.
Look at it this way. The hosts, coming off a 0-0 draw at home against Crystal Palace and a 2-2 draw away to a then Mark Hughes' Southampton side, are still favourites to win this match. Which shows some feat on their record.
And for the final kicker, Arsenal have only scored more than once in three of their last 39 away league games against Man Utd - and they've lost all three of those games (2-4 in November 1984, the infamous 2-8 in August 2011 and 2-3 in February 2016). The [2.56] about the Red Devils is very attractive.
Jasmine Baba 2017-18 P/L: -£40.30
More home misery for United
Back Arsenal to beat Man Utd @ [3.05]
*Harry is away.
Harry Phillips 2017-18 P/L: -£49.40
Expect a tight 'M23 derby'
Back Under 1.5 Goals in Brighton v Crystal Palace at 15/8
Having landed a winner by going unders in the Merseyside derby I'm sticking with a similar theme when these two bitter rivals face off at the Amex on Tuesday.
But whereas the market called under 2.5 wrong at Anfield, it has it as short as [1.6] here so I'm taking a chance on an uneventful evening of goalmouth action, and going under 1.5.
While there was a five-goal thriller when these two last met at Selhurst, this fixture was 0-0 last season and, after good wins at the weekend and a busy month ahead, you sense both Chris Hughton and Roy Hodgson would be happy with a point in a game both sets of fans are desperate not to lose.
Dan Thomas 2017-18 P/L: -£88.40
For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.
The Editors' 2018/19 P/L:
1. Mike Norman +£28.50
2. Joe Dyer +£13.10
3. Jasmine Baba -£40.30
4. Harry Phillips -£49.40
5. Dan Thomas -£88.40
Mike Norman: Back Man City Any Other Away Win @ [4.2] v Watford
Joe Dyer: Back West Ham Win/Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.54] v Cardiff
Jasmine Baba: Back Man Utd to beat Arsenal @ [2.56]
Harry Phillips: Back Arsenal to beat Man Utd @ [3.05]
Dan Thomas: Back Under 1.5 Goals in Brighton v Crystal Palace at 15/8