Blackpool host Birmingham in the first leg of their English Championship play off semi final clash this evening with under 2.5 goals trading at odds-on. Paul Robinson thinks that the third and fourth top scoring teams in the division will serve up the goals though.
Blackpool are looking to get back into the Premier League straight away after a credible campaign last time that saw them snatch relegation from the jaws of safety in the last month or so of the season.
It's been the opposite this time around though as after a slowish start, Ian Holloway's side finished like a train and went undefeated in their last seven matches of the regular season. One thing that remained similar though was their attacking football, as after 46 fixtures The Tangerine's netted 79 goals, an average of 1.72 per game, making them the third highest scorers in the division behind Southampton and West Ham.
Veteran striker Kevin Phillips has been the man that has stepped up to the plate after the summer exodus of talent and he has banged in 16 goals, defying his age of 38. At Bloomfield Road, eight of Blackpool's last 11 have gone over 2.5 and they haven't failed to score since drawing a blank against Watford in December.
Birmingham are pretty similar to Blackpool; relegated last season, a slow start to this one and then a strong finish. Striker Marlon King believes that if the Blues hadn't have had Europa League football to contend with at the start of the year then they'd have won automatic promotion and I wouldn't necessarily disagree with him even though they finished 12 points adrift of second.
They say that the team with the most momentum tends to win the play offs and with Chris Hughton's men being undefeated in nine, it could be argued that they are that team. After a run of four draws, they finished off with a 2-0 victory over champions Reading and that will surely boost their confidence even further, although Reading had already won the title and had nothing left to play for.
In terms of goals, Brum are the fourth top scorers with 78, an average of 1.7 per match, and eight of their last 11 away from St Andrews have gone over 2.5, including cricket scores of 0-6, 1-4, 4-1 and 3-3.
Play off semi final first legs can often be tight affairs as neither side wants to blow their chance of getting back into football's elite, but despite that, these two teams both have too many goals in them for unders to be trading at 1.991/1 which is why I'm making Under 2.5 Goals my lay of the day.