Paris St-G are odds on for their trip to Valenciennes this evening but with the home side unbeaten on their own patch in eight league games, Paul Robinson thinks they have to be opposed.
Remember the name, Nicola Pozzi. He singlehandedly cost us our seventh consecutive winner yesterday as he missed a penalty with the score at 0-2 when we needed just one more goal. We'll move on though and with a decent selection lined up, I'm confident of making it nine successful odds-on lays from 11.
Valenciennes are having a fine campaign to date and they find themselves up in fifth place with 26 points from their opening 16 fixtures. Daniel Sanchez's side have fell to just four defeats all season and they all came on their travels.
At Stade du Hainaut, Valenciennes have played eight, won five and drawn three. The highlight of that form was a 4-1 hammering of the high flying, Marseille, back in September. It is also interesting to note that four of their five victories were by more than one goal, which underlines their dominance in front of their own fans.
PSG are second in the table but boss, Carlo Ancelotti is still a man under pressure. His side have won just two of their last half dozen in Ligue One and it would be fair to say that they are turning into a bit of a one man team.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic has netted exactly 50% of their league goals to date and it's no surprise that their formed dipped while he was absent. He is available this evening but sometimes even the Swede can't carry them to victory as evidenced by the 2-1 loss to Nice in their last away trip.
I simply can't have a side at odds-on who travel to a team in their own division who are undefeated at home after eight matches. PSG may well win, but they represent no value whatsoever and that's why at the 1.9110/11 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Lay Paris St-G v Valenciennes @ 1.9110/11
2012 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 284 pts
Returned: 294.95 pts
P/L + 10.95 pts