Dan Fitch is impressed by Paraguay's recent form and is backing them to beat Peru, but he's not ruling out the possibility of a draw...
"Over their last 13 games, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay are the only teams to have beaten Paraguay (W4 D6)."
Peru 3.211/5 v Paraguay 2.6813/8; The Draw 3.02/1
Friday 2 July, 22:00
Live on BBCi
Peru shrug off poor form to finish second
Peru faced better than expected in Group B, yet still find themselves as narrow outsiders against Paraguay.
Ricardo Gareca's team finished second in the group, behind the winners Brazil. This was a surprise considering that Peru went into this tournament in poor form, with the side bottom of the CONMEBOL World Cup qualification standings. After being thrashed 4-0 in their first game against Brazil, Peru are now unbeaten in three, beating Colombia and Venezuela, and drawing with Ecuador.
Paraguay are one of only two teams that Peru have gained a positive result against in World Cup qualifying (P6 W1 D1 L4), drawing 2-2 away in October last year. Peru's central defender Christian Ramos is suspended for this match.
Paraguay emerge from tough group
Paraguay finished in third place in Group A, winning two of their four games, to secure their place in the quarter-finals.
While Paraguay were expected to beat Bolivia in their opening game, their 2-0 win against Chile was a surprise and was what ultimately kept them from finishing fourth and facing Brazil. Paraguay lost their matches against Argentina and Uruguay, but only by narrow 1-0 scorelines.
It was a tough group and provided further proof that this Paraguay team only lose to the best sides. Over their last 13 games, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay are the only teams to have beaten them (W4 D6). A worry for Paraguay is the injury sustained by the Newcastle midfielder Miguel Almiron against Uruguay. Almiron looks set to miss the rest of the tournament.
Paraguay won't lose but don't rule out draw
Paraguay are the favourites at 2.6813/8, with the draw at 3.02/1 and a Peru win at 3.211/5.
The recent form of Paraguay suggests that they will not lose. The loss of Almiron could be costly though, so the draw should not be discounted. Paraguay are available at 1.758/11 in the Draw No Bet market.
Aside from their match against Bolivia, the other three matches played by Paraguay in this tournament, have seen less than three goals. Under 2.5 goals is too short to recommend at 1.511/2, but when combined with a Paraguay win, the odds rise to a tempting 4.57/2. A 1-0 Paraguay win is 7.26/1, with 2-0 at 12.5.
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Dan Fitch 2021 Copa America P/L
Staked: 29.00 pts
Returned: 26.01 pts
P/L: -2.99 pts