Brazil will be back to full strength against Chile in the quarter-finals of the 2021 Copa America and Dan Fitch is expecting the hosts to win a low scoring match.
"Though they have been tough to beat, Chile are struggling to score goals. It’s six games since they scored more than once in a match."
Brazil 1.392/5 v Chile 10.519/2; The Draw 4.94/1
Saturday 3 July, 1:00
Live on BBCi
Brazil well rested before quarter-finals
Brazil are hot favourites to win the 2021 Copa America, but they have a harder quarter-final than they would have perhaps anticipated.
Paraguay might have seemed the most likely opponents from Group A, but they finished above Chile in third. That perhaps explains how Brazil's odds to win the tournament has come out a little to 1.9210/11, which of course remains a very short price for a team at the quarter-final stage.
After beating Venezuela, Peru and Colombia in their first three matches, Brazil dropped their first points in their final match, when they drew 1-1 with Ecuador. Tite made a large number of changes for that match, so his team should be refreshed. The Atletico Madrid defenders Renan Lodi and Felipe are the only injury worries for Brazil.
Chile struggling to score goals
After a decent start in Group A, Chile's results took a turn for the worse, leaving them with the toughest quarter-final match possible.
Chile will face the tournament hosts and favourites having surprisingly lost their final group match, 2-0 against Paraguay. They'd started with a draw with Argentina, before beating Bolivia and drawing with Uruguay. The loss to Paraguay ended a six match unbeaten record (D4 L2).
Though they have been tough to beat, Chile are struggling to score goals. It's six games since they scored more than once in a match. The continued absence of Alexis Sanchez through injury is clearly not helping matters.
Chile can keep it tight in defeat
Brazil are the 1.392/5 favourites to win this match, with the draw at 4.94/1 and a Chile win at 10.519/2.
These sides have not played each other since 2017, when Brazil won a home World Cup qualifier 3-0. Brazil are 2.111/10 to win to nil again, which is a bet that landed in two of their three victories during the group stage. The Selecao have kept clean sheets in six of their last eight games.
The worry in backing that bet is that Chile have managed to find the net against good teams such as Argentina and Uruguay, while Brazil have conceded in each of their last two. Backing a Brazil win and under 2.5 goals at 3.259/4, could therefore make more sense, with Chile's last six games all seeing less than three goals. Neymar will return to the side after being rested against Equador and is available at 1.9110/11 to add to his tally of two goals in this tournament.
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Dan Fitch 2021 Copa America P/L
Staked: 29.00 pts
Returned: 26.01 pts
P/L: -2.99 pts