Colombia pulled off a minor surprise in the quarter-finals, but Dan Fitch thinks that Argentina and Lionel Messi will be too strong for them in the semi-finals of the Copa America on Wednesday.
"Lionel Messi has three goals from his last two games."
Argentina 1.794/5 v Colombia 6.05/1; The Draw 3.613/5
Wednesday 7 July, 02:00
Live on BBCi
Second favourites growing into the tournament
Argentina have the chance to book themselves a place in another Copa America final on Wednesday, when they take on Colombia.
They have reached the final of four of the last six tournaments, but have lost on each occasion, not winning the Copa America since 1993. If the tournament was to be held in Argentina, as was originally intended, perhaps they would now have a better chance of ending this run. With the competition now hosted by Brazil, it's they who are favourites to win the Copa America at 1.758/11, with Argentina out at 3.185/40.
In their favour, Argentina do look to be growing into this tournament. A 4-1 win over Bolivia in their last group game, was followed by a 3-0 quarter-final victory over Ecuador. Now comes a step up in class against Colombia. Sergio Aguero has come into the team for Argentina's last two games and is expected to lead the line, alongside Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martinez.
Colombia pull off surprise win
Having failed to shine in the group stages, Colombia pulled off an impressive victory to reach the semi-finals of the competition.
Colombia only won one of their four games in Group B, against Ecuador (D1 L2), which saw them finish third. They were underdogs in the quarter-finals against Uruguay, but managed to hold them to a 0-0 draw and win a dramatic penalty shootout.
They might need a similar method of victory against Argentina. Colombia have only scored three goals in five games at this tournament, with the Atalanta duo Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata failing to impress in the goalless draw with Uruguay. Miguel Borja could return to the starting lineup.
Messi has found his groove
Argentina are the 1.794/5 favourites, with the draw at 3.613/5 and a Colombia win out at 6.05/1.
These set of odds look about right. Argentina have the greater potency and have begun to show it in recent games, but Colombia will be encouraged by the fact that they drew 2-2 in a World Cup qualifier with Argentina back at the start of June, before the goals dried up for them at this tournament.
Over 2.5 goals could be a bet worth taking at 2.526/4, considering that score, yet it does seem a risk, given Colombia's scoring record in recent games. Lionel Messi is 2.26/5 to score, which seems like value for a player with three goals from his last two games.
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Dan Fitch 2021 Copa America P/L
Staked: 33.00 pts
Returned: 31.76 pts
P/L: -1.24 pts