Wolves v Aston Villa: Stalemate the call in mid-table derby clash

Mark O'Haire
13 January 2017

Will Steve Bruce's Aston Villa avoid defeat, or even win, Saturday's West Midlands derby

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Saturday evening's live offering from the Championship is the West Midlands derby between Wolves and Aston Villa at Molineux. Mark O'Haire previews the encounter...

"Collectively, these two clubs have played out 19/50 (38%) draws – a percentage success rate that implies betting odds of 2.63."

Wolves v Aston Villa
Saturday 14th January, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Wolves

Bar a fluke home defeat to QPR, Paul Lambert's turned the tide at Wolves since taking charge from Walter Zenga. The Black Country boys have W3-D3-L3 across nine outings but the Scot oversaw his side stun Stoke 2-0 with a much-chnaged team in the third round of the FA Cup last weekend.

That positive result followed a solid return of seven points from a possible 12 - including that unexplainable Molineux loss to QPR. Wolves now enjoy a five-point cushion above the bottom-three of the Championship and Lambert's looking to continue the rejuvenation on Saturday evening.

The hosts are hoping to have winger Ivan Cavaleiro fit again but Prince Oniangue has been struggling with illness while fellow midfielder Romain Saiss is at the Africa Cup of Nations. Elsewhere, Ola John, Cameron Borthwick-Jackson, Joao Teixeria, Jed Wallace and Paul Gladon are expected to be left out.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa fell to a routine FA Cup defeat at Tottenham last Sunday but Steve Bruce's main focus is turning the Claret & Blue into Championship play-off contenders but even the serial promotion expert is struggling to get Villa going.

The visitors collected a deserved three points at QPR in mid-December but scrappy triumphs against Burton and Wigan at Villa Park have come alongside unconvincing performances against Leeds, Norwich and Cardif.

Goalkeeper Sam Johnstone is expected to make his league debut but key forwards Jordan Ayew and Jonathan Kodjia are at the Africa Cup of Nations whilst Micah Richards and Ritchie De Laet remain sidelined.

Match Odds

Aston Villa hold the head-to-head advantage over the past 21 meetings with Wolves, winning on 14 occasions and suffering a sole reverse. The Villans are also unbeaten at Molineux (W6-D3-L0) in nine games, dating back to 1978.

But with Villa having lost 24 of their 35 matches on their travels (W2-D9-L24) since the start of 2015/16 and missing their nine-goal top scorer Kodja, it's almost impossible to find faith in the visitors at 3.1085/40.

Wolves are available to support at 2.568/5 but having shipped at least two goals in each of their last five home fixtures and claiming one league victory as hosts since September, our best bet is to back the stalemate at 3.309/4.

Collectively, these two clubs have played out 19/50 (38%) draws - a percentage success rate that implies betting odds of 2.63.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Paul Lambert's stemmed the initial bleeding since arriving at Wolves. After previously silencing their opponents in just three of 19 matches in all competitions, the Black Country boys have kept four clean sheets under the Scot.

The newfound defensive resilience suggest Wolves are capable of keeping Villa quiet on Saturday evening. The Villans have managed just seven goals in 13 away trips this term, firing blanks in four of their past five. Bruce's men are also without Jonathan Kodjia - scorer of nine of Villa's 26 league goals this season.

With the visitors featuring in nine Under 2.5 Goals games in their past 10 away days, plus 6/13 (46%) of their road trips producing no more than one goal, keeping a low-scoring tie onside is preferred at 1.738/11.

Correct Score

Having outlined the draw and Under 2.5 Goals has viable options of attack for Saturday's West Midlands derby, I'm keen then to combine the two angles for a play in the Correct Score market.

The 1-1 draw has paid out in eight (32%) of Aston Villa's encounters this term and therefore looks too big to ignore at 6.6011/2 quotes here at Molineux.

Recommended Bets

Back the draw @ 3.309/4
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.738/11
Back the 1-1 correct score @ 6.6011/2

Mark's 2016/17 Profit/Loss

Staked: 76.00 pts
Returned: 79.84 pts
P/L: +3.84 pts

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