West Brom v Stoke: Goals expected in Hawthorns encounter

Mark O'Haire
19 January 2020

West Brom have to “minimise and nullify mistakes" according to Slaven Bilic

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Title-chasing West Brom will look to consolidate their place at the top of the Championship with a positive performance against struggling Stoke on Monday. Mark O'Haire analyses the odds...

"West Brom’s home outings have averaged the second-highest goals per-game figure in the Championship this season (3.77) with a mammoth 7/13 (54%) fixtures featuring Over 3.5 Goals"

West Brom v Stoke
Monday January 20, 20:00
Sky Sports

West Brom stumbling in top spot

West Brom have to "minimise and nullify mistakes" as they bid to hold on to the Championship top spot, says boss Slaven Bilic. The Baggies re-took their place at the second-tier summit last weekend despite a hugely frustrating 2-2 draw at out-of-sorts Charlton with Albion conceding both goals in a dominant display from set-piece situations.

The stalemate means WBA come into Monday's match without a win in five league games, drawing four and losing one. That run has seen the gap between themselves and the play-off places cut from 12 points since their win at Birmingham last month, with Bilic urging his promotion-chasing side to keep their focus ahead of the final 18 weeks of the campaign.

West Brom will have defender Nathan Ferguson available for The Hawthorns encounter, whilst Grady Diangana has also benefited from an extra week's training after he made his comeback from a back injury by featuring off the bench at Charlton last weekend. However, Kieran Gibbs will miss the match, along with youngsters Rekeem Harper and Jack Fitzwater.

Stoke still in relegation battle

Stoke played out a drab 0-0 draw with Millwall in their most recent outing. Michael O'Neill's men huffed and puffed but couldn't find a way through the resilient Lions defence despite enjoying the upper hand in the possession and territory stakes. The Potters managed a solitary attempt on-target, leaving visiting goalkeeper Bartosz Bialkoski relatively untested.

City ended the contest with four out-and-out attackers in hope one could conjure a breakthrough in a fixture blighted by fierce wind. Sam Vokes was twice narrowly off target for the hosts in the first half, and Tyrese Campbell blasted an early chance over, as well as seeing a second-half effort scrambled off the line by the visitors in a scrappy encounter.

Post-match, O'Neill said, "We're disappointed. I thought second half we were better and we just didn't capitalise on the opportunities that we had. It was a game where it was hard to create a really good chance and I think if there was any team which looked most likely to win it it was us." Skipper Ryan Shawcross is a major injury doubt for Monday night's match.

Albion vulnerable odds-on favourites

West Brom have won each of the last three league meetings with Stoke, all in the Championship since the start of last season. The Baggies have also tabled four victories from five unbeaten match-ups with the Potters at The Hawthorns since 2014.

West Brom 1.9520/21 have managed a sole success in seven league games since mid-December (W1-D5-L1) and have recorded a solitary shutout in 11 matches since November's international break. The Baggies have not been able to eradicate their defensive imperfections, looking particularly vulnerable from crosses and set-pieces.

Stoke 4.607/2 are looking to win consecutive away league games for the first time since October 2015 following the Potters' thrilling 5-2 victory at Huddersfield on New Year's Day. However, exclude meetings with fellow bottom-four strugglers and City have registered just one triumph and nine losses in their remaining 11 games as guests this term (W1-D1-L9).

Stats suggest goals at The Hawthorns

West Brom's home outings have averaged the second-highest goals per-game figure in the Championship this season (3.77) with a mammoth 7/13 (54%) fixtures featuring Over 3.5 Goals and five encounters also producing at least five goals. All bar one of their 13 tussles at The Hawthorns have seen both sides score and a repeat looks likely at 1.75 here.

Stoke have already scored more goals on the road under Michael O'Neill in six matches (11 goals) than they did in 17 fixtures under Nathan Jones (9) with the visitors finding the back of the net in all bar four of their 12 tussles under their current boss.