This column returned a profit of 8.86pts (ROI 221.5%) last Saturday thanks in no small part to Barnsley's 2-1 win over Blackpool. It just goes to show that even during a poor spell (which I was definitely enduring), just one decent winner can make a huge difference.
My betting advice this week then is simple. Don't ever let a poor run of results influence your wagers. Don't back odds-on shots just because you feel they'll get you back on track. Stick to what you know best, and if that's how you got yourself in front in the first place, then that's how you'll get yourself back in front.
Here endeth the lesson!
Huddersfield 4.03/1 v Cardiff 2.0421/20; The Draw 3.814/5
When you consider that Peterborough have won four of their last eight games (and lost only two) and yet Saturday's opponents Leicester are around 1.75/7 to beat them, then hopefully that highlights what a huge price Cardiff are at 2.0421/20 to beat a way out of form Huddersfield side.
Leicester are away from home, Cardiff are away from home, yet the Bluebirds are 10 points clear at the top of the Championship table and have taken an impressive 19 points from the last 21 available to them on their travels. Their last five away trips read wins over Leeds, Blackpool, Birmingham, Blackburn, and ironically, Leicester.
Compare Cardiff's opponents to Leicester's opponents and you'll notice that The Terriers have won just one of their last 14 league games, a far worse record than Peterborough.
For the record I believe The Foxes will beat Posh, and that their odds to win are about right, but given everything I've said here then I'd have thought that Cardiff would be around the 1.51/2 or 1.68/13 mark to win this game. To see them at 2.0421/20 looks outstanding value to me.
Recommended Bet: Back Cardiff to win @ 2.0421/20 (best bet)
Bristol City 3.02/1 v Nottm Forest 2.568/5; The Draw 3.55
Bristol City were just a speculative selection last week so it wasn't too surprising to see them lose away to Blackburn Rovers. This week however I'm slightly more confident that they'll go close to taking all three points against the Championship's current 'circus club' Nottingham Forest.
We'll probably never know what went on with that George Boyd transfer, though it appears to be the straw that broke Alex McLeish's back. In steps Billie Davies - again - to try and lead Forest to former glories. But on current form I'm happy to side with the home team.
The Robins have won three out of four at Ashton Gate, scoring eight goals in the process, and considering the dreadful record they had on home soil prior to this mini run that's quite an improvement under new boss Sean O'Driscoll. By sheer coincident O'Driscoll was the Forest boss not too long ago. They sacked him, so he'll be desperate to get one over his form employers.
Forest haven't won on the road for six league games now, and surely they've been unsettled by everything that has gone on this week. Davies doesn't officially take over until Monday, and I have a feeling his first job will be to try and lift a side that lost this encounter.
Recommended Bet: Back Bristol City to win @ 3.02/1
Peterborough 5.49/2 v Leicester 1.728/11; The Draw 4.216/5
I've briefly discussed this game already in my opening preview, but now I'm here, discussing it in more detail, I'm not convinced that I want to let Peterborough go un-backed at 5.49/2. I will though, but very reluctantly.
Goals is what I want to be on here in this fixture. I mentioned around Christmas time that Posh were starting to resemble the side they were two or three years ago - you score three, we'll score three (or more). From their last 10 league games, either Both teams to Score or Over 2.5 Goals has paid out every time. Those 10 games have averaged a staggering 4.3 goals per game!
Leicester have won five on the spin, scoring 14 goals themselves. They'll fancy a few at London Road, and that means that this game surely has to have at least four goals.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.747/4