QPR v Nottingham Forest
Saturday April 12
Live on Sky Sports 1
Barring a total collapse, Rangers are going to be in the play-offs and Harry Redknapp faces the task of ensuring they don't lose focus over their last five games of the season. He will want them to finish no lower than fourth and have the second leg of their semi-final at home given their poor run on the road since the turn of the year - two wins and six defeats including losses at Bournemouth and Blackburn in the last seven days.
At Loftus Road they have been stronger with just two defeats all season although they could only manage a 1-1 draw with lowly Blackpool in their last appearance on home soil.
Star striker Charlie Austin has returned from a shoulder injury which was initially feared could keep him out for the rest of the season. As he gets up to match fitness his presence could spark an upturn in the Rs fortunes.
Forest's season was starting to fall apart even before the hammering from bitter rivals Derby which led to Billy Davies' sacking and was followed by embarrassing home defeats against both struggling South Londoners Charlton and Millwall before a late fight back earned them a point at the City Ground against Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday.
It's no surprise then that they are currently bottom of the form table and are without a win in the last 11 (six defeats and five draws). They have won just five times away from home this season, less than anybody in the top half bar Watford, although they have drawn ten games.
Academy manager Gary Brazil continues in charge until the end of the season when City Ground legend Stuart Pearce takes over. Admirable though Brazil's efforts may be, it's difficult to see him as anything other than a lame duck and certainly not capable of bridging the gap which has opened up above them to the play-offs.
One chink of light could be the return of star midfield playmaker Andy Reid, whose hamstring injury has co-incided with his team's slump.
With two horribly out of form sides the temptation is to avoid the outright market and look elsewhere for value. However, QPR's dire away form does disguise the fact that at home they are still a tough nut to crack. Prior to that draw with Blackpool they beat two sides in decent enough nick in their previous two outings in West London - Wigan and Yeovil.
On that basis I think the 2.226/5 is a good price for a side who can still salvage their season (via the play-offs) if they can get their act together. Especially as their opponents' own promotion hopes now seem beyond rescue. Rangers' squad is still a cut above any other in this league and a manager who was a serious candidate for the England job just two years ago must be able to lift them somehow.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Overs can be backed at 2.26/5 which seems the value here. Forest's last two games have gone over the mark and they've kept just the one clean sheet in the league in 2014 while Rangers have scored in every home game since December 21. Austin will surely start for them, having come off the bench on his last two games, which means backing overs should pay dividends.
Back QPR to win at 2.226/5
Back over 2.5 goals at 2.26/5