Nottm Forest v Derby: Goals galore expected at the City Ground

Mike Norman
29 September 2012

Goals are always scored at the City Ground when Derby visit

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Mike Norman isn't convinced that Forest are a safe bet to win this game but he does expect goals to be scored in Sunday's east midlands derby...

"True, basing football wagers on previous head-to-head stats is arguably not the best way to go about things, but it will take a brave man to back Unders in this market given what we know."

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.981/1

Nottm Forest 2.0811/10 v Derby 4.03/1; The Draw 3.65

Nottingham Forest can move into the top 10 of the Championship with a win over east midlands rivals Derby at the City Ground on Sunday afternoon.

Sean O'Driscoll's men have stuttered of late, drawing two and losing one of their last three league games, though on home soil they remain unbeaten. The addition of Jermaine Jenas to the squad - on loan from Tottenham - will add some extra quality in midfield and he should make his debut against the Rams, though probably from the substitute's bench.

Defender Sam Hutchinson remains a doubt after missing last week's defeat to Leeds with a knee injury, whilst midfielder Adlene Guedioura is suspended.

Derby boss Nigel Clough is expected to name an unchanged squad for the short trip along the A52 and is likely to recall midfielder Michael Jacobs and striker Nathan Tyson after both missed the 1-2 home defeat to Burnley last week.

Match Odds

With home advantage Forest are deserving favourites to win the game but I'm still of the belief that they are slightly under-priced from time to time. New owners and a bit of cash to spend doesn't mean you will get instant results on the pitch, yet it seems this is how Forest are being priced up. After all, they've won just two league games from seven this season.

Having said that they are still the most likely winners of this game as they have started the season well on home soil, whilst Derby have failed to win away from home, scoring just one goal in three matches.

But as Opta point out the Rams did do the double over Forest last season, and Derby have lost just three of their last 10 visits to the City Ground. A local derby is a great leveller they say, and this is probably the reason for County's respectable record at the home of their neighbours.

At 2.0811/10 to back Forest are a little on the skinny side for my liking and I think the value call is to back the away team in the Draw No Bet market at around 2.915/8.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This is pretty much a coin toss market with both options being available to back at 1.981/1 but a quick look at the history books tells us that these two always serve up goals at the City Ground.

Over 2.5 Goals would have paid out in each of the last six meetings, and in eight of the last nine meetings. In fact those last six meetings have seen an average of 4.66 goals scored with scorelines such as 5-2, 3-2, and 2-3 being recorded, so perhaps there's some merit in backing Over 3.5 Goals at 3.412/5.

True, basing football wagers on previous head-to-head stats is arguably not the best way to go about things, but it will take a brave man to back Unders in this market given what we know.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.981/1
Back Derby Draw No Bet @ 2.915/8